A Defense of Ruben Amaro, Jr.

albeit maybe a pretty back-handed one…

First of all, let us get two things straight before I embark on a potentially ill-fated defense of our embattled GM.  One, I think Ruben seems like a pretty good guy, and I have a lot of respect for him, personally.  Two, I think Ruben is – and always has been – a pretty terrible GM.  I think it is long past the time when we should be finding a replacement, and the fact that he is still guiding this ship is terrifying to me.  HOWEVER…

I think that the current accusations and frustrations with Ruben are totally off-base and inconsistent.  And, it is the second part that bothers me the most.  Because the same people that seem to question Sam Hinkie and Chip Kelly are ripping Ruben.  It seems to me that the most often-cited wishes of the Hinkie/Kelly regimes are exactly how Ruben has been operating for years.  Let me explain…

COMPLAINT:  Sam Hinkie and Chip Kelly Do Not Talk Enough to the Fans
Ruben is always available.  He has a weekly spot on Angelo’s morning show.  He is on with Gargano and even Missinelli (who has absolutely no qualms about ripping him up cross-examination style).  He gives written journalists pretty extensive access and candid remarks.  In fact, the most recent remarks about the “fans not getting it” is probably the exact reason why Hinkie and Kelly avoid the media.  Because sometimes you are forced to tell the truth (and, let’s be honest – anyone who thinks that Ruben is dumb for leaving Aaron Nola in the minors after 20 starts really doesn’t “get it,” so Ruben is right), and telling the truth sometimes is the worst thing you can do.

COMPLAINT:  Hinkie and Kelly Are Too Quick to Unload Home-Grown Stars
What do we keep hearing over and over about why people are sour on Hinkie and Kelly?  It always comes back to Michael Carter-Williams, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy.  Hinkie thought MCW’s upside was limited, and Kelly thought that Jackson and McCoy were overpaid and not “on board.”  If you think they’re crazy, then obviously you love the fact that RAJ decided to keep Howard, Utley, and Rollins around for so long, right?  I mean we have to keep our stars, right?

So, if you don’t like what Hinkie and Kelly are doing, then you are intellectually dishonest with yourself if you don’t, at least, respect the job Ruben is doing.

And, then there are the unfair complaints about Ruben himself.

COMPLAINT:  Why Hasn’t Ruben Traded Cole Hamels Yet?
Ruben is out there, looking for offers.  Now, this isn’t a Marlon Byrd situation at last year’s trade deadline, which was a total debacle.  This is an ELITE pitcher in his prime with an expensive, but not outlandish and controllable contract.  I am happy that Ruben is waiting to get the best return.  What he is risking is a potential injury, but that risk, in my opinion, WELL worth taking if the alternative is getting 60 cents on the dollar.  Remember the Cliff Lee trade?  That was probably Ruben’s second-biggest blunder (slightly behind the Ryan Howard contract extension and well ahead of the Hunter Pence trade and Jonathan Papelbon signing).  Ruben traded away an elite left-handed pitcher in his prime for a pile of nothing.  If that happens with Hamels, then this rebuilding won’t be a phase, it could be an era.  This whole rebuild is counting on maximizing the value of a guy like Hamels.  He has to hold out.

COMPLAINT:  Why Isn’t Ruben Bringing Up Guys Like Nola?
This is the most recent one – and, frankly, I don’t get it.  What the hell is the point in bringing up a guy who was pitching for LSU this time LAST YEAR.  He has 20 – yes, TWENTY – professional starts.  Why in the world should he be up in the majors for a team that’s going to lose 90+ games.  If the argument is that the team is going nowhere this year, then they should ABSOLUTELY NOT bring him up.  If you told me that they were a mid-rotation starter away from contending, then maybe you take the chance.  But, why chance stunting the growth (and add service time) to your most promising pitching prospect just because “the fans want to see him pitch.”  Buy an f’ing Reading ticket, then, people – come on!  If you are one of the people that want Nola up here now, then Ruben was talking about you when he said “you don’t get it.”  And, he was right.

COMPLAINT:  How Did Ruben Lead a Fall This Far This Fast?
This one is fair and relevant.  Amaro took the reins of a franchise that was in the incredible position of having great home-grown talent, a rabid fanbase that was selling out every night, and owners who were making money hand-over-fist and willing to spend it to stay at the top.  He had a core of position players that had already won and built a pitching staff that could rival any in the history of the game.  How did he screw this up so bad?  Now, again, I think a lot of it was his fault (giving Howard the HUGE extension 2.5 years before he had to…trading Cliff Lee for next to nothing…COMPLETELY ignoring any analytics – this is my biggest gripe, actually), but a lot of it was not his fault.  First of all, they had the best team in baseball – and the best team in franchise history – in 2011.  They could have – and maybe should have – won the World Series in any of 2009, 2010, or 2011.  They built a team around relatively young and durable starting pitchers like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, who got old very fast and missed a lot more time than their track records would have indicated.  In fact, look at the core of those teams and how unpredictable the falls were.  Who would have thought that Brad Lidge would go from perfect closer in 2008 to a 7.21 ERA in 2009 to out of baseball in 2012?  Who would have thought that Ryan Howard would go from 6 straight years of top-10 MVP finishes, averaging 44 HRs per season, including 58 in a single season.  To hitting a TOTAL of 48 HRs from 2012 through 2014?  Who would have known that, in order to keep former platoon OF, Jayson Werth, the Phillies would have had to top a $123 M contract offer from the Nationals?  Who have known that the ace of the #2 pitcher on the 2008 championship team (who was actually the ace before the Cole Hamels breakout postseason) would only win 4 more games for the Phils after that and be out of baseball before his 33rd birthday?

Now, to be fair, Ruben did not exactly help the cause, but there were a lot of occurrences – out of his control – that led to this historic fall.  Again, I do not think that Ruben is a good GM – in fact, I think he is pretty bad and should not be the Phillies GM for one more day.  But, I also got bothered by what gets thrown at him.  If you hate Hinkie for never talking or Chip for jettisoning not only D-Jax and Shady, but the Trent Coles and Todd Herremans of the world, then you can’t also rip Ruben for keeping Chase Utley or Ryan Howard too long.  If you hate Ruben’s awful haul when he traded away Cliff Lee (which I do), then you can’t fault him for waiting out a better deal for Hamels.  And, if you are one of these people who think that the Phils should call up their AA starter after 20 professional starts just because you “want to see him pitch” then, as the eloquent Ruben Amaro, Jr., so aptly put it yesterday, “you just don’t get it.”

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The Mariota What-Ifs

No matter how good Nelson Agholor and Eric Rowe turn out to be, the Eagles 2015 draft will always be the “didn’t get Mariota draft.” Now, I am not saying that – historically-speaking – that will always be a bad thing. In fact, we may look back and think, “whew, did we dodge a bullet.” The reported insane package of multiple #1s plus elite-caliber players like Mychal Kendricks and, particularly, Fletcher Cox, that never happened may haunt Tennessee fans down the road a whole lot more than the ghost of Mariota haunts us. However, whether the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner is a boom or bust in Tennessee, we will absolutely never know just what the Chip Kelly-Marcus Mariota marriage would have turned out to be in the NFL. And, by all accounts, we were very close to finding out.

Ahh…what could have been

This happens in sports all the time – particularly in drafts. What if the Phillies took Frank Thomas over Jeff Jackson? What if the Sixers took Paul Pierce over Larry Hughes? What if the Eagles took Earl Thomas instead of Brandon Graham, like everyone thought they were going to? And, while the draft is the most obvious place for this, there are a million others every day in sports. Injuries, play calls, referee decisions, etc. are all easy examples of small occurrences that may lead to monumental events in the sporting world.

But, there is something really interesting about this Mariota-Kelly “what-if” that seems different. Because it was so obvious and because of the potentially historic ramifications, I feel a little robbed, if nothing else, of the immense intrigue that this combination would provide. So, what turned the tide? How did this not happen? There are many factors – obviously – some of which have been talked about ad nauseum, some of which have barely been mentioned, if at all. But, since this seems like an important flagpost moment in Philadelphia sports, I wanted to try and document some of the butterfly wing-flappings that resulted in the hurricane of Mariota ending up a Titan.

Mariota’s Pre-Draft Performance

The bottom line is that, come draft day, the Birds had no chance because the Titans, with the #2-pick, decided that they wanted Mariota to be their quarterback. Whether it was a football decision or an ownership decision (more on that below), they clearly came to that decision late in the process and was almost certainly a result of the pretty incredible performance that Mariota put on – both on the field and in interviews – in the pre-draft process. Teams fell in love with Marcus, himself, and they seemed to see enough about his physical abilities to override the concerns about never taking a ball from center or ever calling a single play in a huddle. When the college football season ended (and meaningful GAMES were finished being played), the experts were united about the football acumen of the two top QBs – Winston was far and away a better on-the-field prospect than Mariota (off-field concerns notwithstanding). But, by the time the draft rolled around, despite no gamefilm being added to either resume, Mariota had earned himself a large portion of the experts’ opinions of who was the best QB on the field. That didn’t exactly help the Eagles chances of either Mariota dropping or Tennessee accepting any deal for him.

Nor did Chip’s incredibly open pining for the guy…

The “Publicness” of the Chase

Personally, I think this is where Chip and the Eagles missed the boat the most. Now, it’s probably unfair to blame Chip for this since the media saw the obvious marriage and would probably have run with it anyway, but I definitely believe that the Eagles could have done a MUCH better job hiding their intentions. Despite never saying anything to the media (which I have no problem with, by the way, but that’s a topic for another post), there was absolutely no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Eagles were going all-in for Mariota. They flat-out lost the poker game to Ruston Webster and the Titans front office. While I do believe that all teams do a good job making up their minds in a vacuum, but comments like “this guy’s going to win multiple Super Bowls” probably didn’t hurt the opinion of him in front offices around the league. And, I also think the Eagles refusal to downplay their interest in Mariota also added to the “publicness” of the Bradford camp that they will not sign an extension anywhere else.

So, would you make the case that we should have held on to Mr. Foles?  Many have…

The Nick Foles Trade

This is probably the one that is most cited as a potential factor. Would the Eagles have been able to “sell” Nick Foles to Tennessee or someone else in order to get Tennessee value in return for Mariota? It is at least worth a discussion on whether or not Foles was actually more valuable than Bradford on the open market, even though the Foles for Bradford trade actually required the Eagles ponying up a second-round pick in 2016. But, the clear indication of the Bradford camp that he will not be signing an extension with anyone other than the Eagles potentially made him actually harder to move than Foles would have been. Oh, ya, that and the whole $12.5 million MORE owed to Bradford than Foles. I am not saying that Chip was wrong in making the Foles-for-Bradford trade because I think, given the current situation, I think I am happier having Bradford than Foles right now. What I am saying is that there is a good chance that the trade actually negatively affected the Eagles chances of landing Chip’s dream QB.

Bradford > Foles? On the field – yes. In trade talks – probably not.

Then again, maybe Tennessee just wasn’t willing to fall all the way to #20, and the Eagles had no way to getting anything higher…

Eagles-Giants, Week 17

But, what if they had played Matt Barkley and, inevitably, lost that Week 17 against the hated Giants instead of winning a meaningless game? What if they were 9-7 instead of 10-6? They would have been about four spots higher and picking at #16. It is unlikely that #16 would have carried much more weight than #20 with Tennessee, but what about other teams in the top 10? It was widely reported that many GMs (including Tennessee’s Ruston Webster, who flat-out said it) thought there were only about 15 or 16 players with “first round talent” in this year’s draft. So, going to #20 was seen as a move to the second round, by some. But, #16 would have been a first round pick. Who knows how that would have changed things?

Then again, it’s not like any pick is a sure thing. Just ask the Titans about the last QB they took in the first round…

Jake Locker

Jake freaking Locker may have cost the city of Philadelphia Marcus Mariota. Who would have guessed that? But, if Locker was anywhere near what he was supposed to be, the Titans wouldn’t have any need for a QB (and, realistically, probably wouldn’t have been picking #2 in the draft, either, but that’s another discussion). But, Locker stunk…and then “retired”…even after going 8th in the draft just four years ago. You could even argue that Locker showed just enough potential that the Titans passed on other QBs in more recent drafts because they still thought there was hope for Locker. Admittedly, this argument kind of falls a little short when you examine those drafts. They picked Locker at #8 in 2011. The next two QBs off the board were Blaine Gabbert at #10 and Christian Ponder at #12, so it’s not like they missed the boat in that draft. Then, in 2012 the Titans first pick was WR Kendall Wright at #20. The next QB off the board?  Brandon Weeden. In 2013, they used their first pick on G Chance Warmack.  The next QB that they “missed out on” was E.J. Manuel. And, then last year, the Titans took OT Laylor Lewan at #11. Thirteen picks later was the next QB taken, and his name was Johnny Football, or something like that. So, the argument that Tennessee could have drafted someone else to fill the franchise QB role falls a little flat, but we can still blame Jake freaking Locker’s awfulness for us not having Mariota right now. And, in the end, the Titans entered this year with the #2 pick in a 2-QB draft with Zach Mettenberger at the top of their depth chart.

How did this guy have anything to do with MY football team?

And, possibly, for other non-football reasons, that was a big concern…

Bud Adams’ Health/Succession Planning

While this angle has been incredibly underreported, I am of the firm belief that this is the main reason why the Eagles pro shops are not selling #8 Mariota jerseys right now. I believe that it was a management decision in Nashville to draft a franchise quarterback because they are planning on putting the team up for sale in the next year or so. Bud Adams passed away in 2013 just two months shy of his 91st birthday. Adams, a co-founder of the old AFL, and the longest-tenured NFL owner at the time of his death, left rather sparse directions on who would assume ownership of the Titans, leading to a lot of in-fighting and eventually a consortium being created that consisted of Adams’ two living daughters and the only son of his deceased son. It is one of the more precarious ownership situations in the NFL and will almost certainly lead to some sort of sale or buy-out or legal rangling in the coming years, or even months. And, prior to Thursday night, what could a potential buyer see in this franchise that is of any value? Nothing. It is – almost inarguably – the most boring team in the league in a second-rate media market. While Leonard Williams or Dante Fowler may have made the Titans a better football team in the long-run, they sure as hell were not increasing an asking price in the short-term. Nor was Sam Bradford or Fletcher Cox or Mychal Kendricks or the Eagles 2017 first-round pick. BUT…if they had a young, exciting franchise QB right now, then maybe the value of this team goes up. So, the bottom line is that I think that the management overruled the “football” people and told them to take a QB – period. And, because of that, once it was clear that the Bucs and Titans would be the two teams picking at the top of the draft this year, the fate was sealed.

But, what if that wasn’t the ultimate 2015 draft order…?

The Tiebreaker

Tennessee lost the tiebreaker (strength of schedule) to the Bucs for the #1 pick, and it was awfully close. If a few of those hundreds of other games went the other way, then Tennessee could have taken their franchise QB (Jameis Winston) at #1, and the Eagles could have been dealing with the Bucs instead. Presumably, the Bucs would have just taken Mariota at #2 like the Titans did, but they have a stable ownership group and a coach who has made the Super Bowl with Rex freaking Grossman, so who knows? But, they were both only one game “ahead” of both the Jags and Raiders, who are more than content with their QB situations and clearly would have passed on Mariota at #1 or #2 – or, more likely, taken the king’s ransom that the Eagles were offering.

So, there are any number of games that could have decided this fate – many of which took place in one fateful weekend in December…

Week 16 and The Curse of Jordan Todman

DECEMBER 20, 2014 – The Eagles lost that stomach-punch game against Washington on Saturday night. Not only did it eliminate the Birds from the playoffs, but it gave the Skins (another team who may have passed on Mariota) another W and moved them out of contention for a top-2 pick. But, in the long run, while it cost the Eagles a shot at a 2015 playoff berth, it may not have been the most impactful game that week on the future of our Birds.

DECEMBER 21, 2015 – The Raiders, a team with a decent young QB in place in Derek Carr, beat the Bills for their 3rd win in the past five weeks. They finished the season 3-13 and earned the #4 pick in the draft. But, this team started 0-10. How are they only picking 4th? I firmly believe that if the Raiders held picks #1 or #2, that Marcus Mariota would be an Eagle today. And, this still was not even the most important game of the day for the Eagles future.

DECEMBER 21, 2015 – The Jacksonville Jaguars – the doormat of the league – actually have a QB. #3 overall pick in 2014, Blake Bortles. They have their wagon hitched to Bortles. They have a TON of needs and would be dying for a bowl-them-over package to move down. Well, they had a shot at that in Week 16 last year. Entering the game at 2-12, the Jags got a late incredible TD from Jordan Todman to beat the also 2-12 Tennessee Titans. That “win” by the Jags meant that the Titans would have a top-2 pick and Jacksonville would be picking 3rd. It meant that the 2015 NFL draft would net the Titans Marcus Mariota and the Eagles Nelson Agholor.

How a backup RB ruined my life…

And, it meant that there was no chance for Chip to reunite with his star pupil…in 2015……

Mariota Staying in School

Finally, I have to mention one other thing that is often forgotten in this whole process. Mariota entered the draft this year as a redshirt junior, which means he was eligible for the draft in 2014. And, he actually strongly considered coming out. Now, at the time, it didn’t really hit the radar of the Eagles because their QB had just finished the BEST QUARTERBACK SEASON IN NFL HISTORY, and Mariota had yet to win any Heismans or anything. In fact, before deciding to return to school, Mel Kiper had Mariota at #33 on his “Big Board.” But, do you really think that, even with Foles’ incredible season, that Chip would have passed on a chance to draft Mariota? I sure don’t. So, the Eagles could have just sat at #22, kept their mouths shut, and taken Mariota with their own first round pick last year. And, all it would have cost them was all the air time they will inevitably have to spend explaining the inexplicable Marcus Smith pick. Actually, I wish I had never brought this up…now, I’m depressed again.

…But, It Ain’t Over

In the end, the marriage of Chip and Marcus wasn’t meant to be…yet. Call me crazy, but I still believe that this dream isn’t over quite yet. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not this year or next. But, unless Mariota lights the world on fire in Tennessee, he may be available down the road. And, it’s not like we’re tied to anyone under center…ugh.  In Chip We Trust!

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2014 MLB Awards

NOTE:  This was written and intended to be published at the end of the 2014 MLB regular season, but due to technical difficulties, we couldn’t get it up until now.  But, with the 2015 season upon us, it seems like a good time.


To get us warmed up, the BBWA has just announced their 2014 MLB Postseason Awards.  And, that’s cute and all, but let us get to the real awards:  the 2014 BSB MLB Awards.  We had an esteemed panel of 7 voters this year, who are very astute and knowledgeable baseball men, vote on 18 different awards.  So, without further ado, let us reveal this year’s winners.


In one of the closest votes we have ever had here for the BSB Awards, Giancarlo Stanton edged out Pirates centerfielder, Andrew McCutcheon, by just 2 points.  Those two were the only two that were on all seven ballots, and both received three first-place votes.  In fact, these two were 1-2 on six of the seven ballots.  The only difference was the one ballot that didn’t have them 1-2 had Stanton #2 and McCutcheon #4.  Even though the voting occurred before the postseason started, Buster Posey came in at #3, with the BBWA choice, Clayton Kershaw, finishing 4th (though, he did garner the only 1st-place vote not for one of the top two).

Mike Stanton was pretty good, but Giancarlo is incredible

My ballot had McCutcheon #1 and Stanton #2.  I followed that with a pair of catchers at #3 and #4– Jonathan Lucroy and Buster Posey.  Nationals breakout star, Anthony Rendon, was my #5.  And, I had to add Andrelton Simmons at #6 because he might be the only shortstop that I have ever seen that I would even mention in the same breath as Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith, defensively.  I left off Clayton Kershaw because I feel strongly that you have to play more than one-fifth of your team’s games to be considered the “most valuable player in the league.”  Period.  I wasn’t alone on that, as two others also left Kershaw off completely.

  1. Giancarlo Stanton (3) – 66 (7)
  2. Andrew McCutcheon (3) – 64 (7)
  3. Buster Posey – 43 (6)
  4. Clayton Kershaw (1) – 34 (4)
  5. Anthony Rendon – 27 (4)
  6. Jonathan Lucroy – 21 (3)
  7. Yasiel Puig – 7 (1)
  8. Todd Frazier – 6 (1)
  9. Josh Harrison – 6 (1)
  10. Anthony Rizzo – 6 (1)
  11. Andrelton Simmons – 5 (1)


The best player on the planet fell one point short of a unanimous selection, garnering six 1st-place votes and one 2nd-place vote.  Victor Martinez was a distant 2nd in the voting.  Nelson Cruz finished 4th, but received the only non-Trout 1st-place vote, even though he only appeared on three of the seven ballots.  There were a whole lot of entries here, as 15 different players appeared on at least one ballot, only two of whom made it on more than four.  Yeonis Cespedes received a 5th-place vote for the sheer fact that the A’s were the best team in the league with him and the worst team in the league without him – maybe he is the “most valuable” player.

The pride of Millville, NJ

Trout was, obviously, my pick for this award.  I agree with the final results for 2nd and 3rd, as well, as I had Martinez at #2 and Brantley at #3.  I swayed from the voters after that, going with the always-overlooked, Jose Bautista, at #4, the rookie sensation, Jose Abreu, at #5, followed by the breakout star (offensively and defensively), Josh Donaldson, at #6, and Robinson Cano at #7.

  1. Mike Trout (6) – 69 (7)
  2. Victor Martinez – 52 (6)
  3. Michael Brantley – 31 (4)
  4. Nelson Cruz (1) – 24 (3)
  5. Jose Abreu – 24 (3)
  6. Robinson Cano – 23 (3)
  7. Josh Donaldson – 18 (3)
  8. Felix Hernandez – 11 (2)
  9. Alex Gordon – 8 (1)
  10. Jose Altuve – 7 (1)
  11. Jose Bautista – 7 (1)
  12. Adam Jones – 7 (1)
  13. Nelson Cruz’s Doctors – 7 (1)
  14. Miguel Cabrera – 6 (1)
  15. Yeonis Cespedes – 6 (1)

NL CY YOUNG:  Clayton Kershaw

In a completely unanimous vote, Clayton Kershaw walks away with another Cy Young.  Johnny Cueto, who was the only other pitcher to even appear on every ballot, finished 2nd.  Adam Wainwright was 3rd in a race that was clearly only down to three guys.  In fact, this was the most clear-cut race of all, as the top 5 guys were all on more than half the ballots, and only eight pitchers even received a vote.

The current totle holder of “Best Pitcher on the Planet”

I agree with the top 3, as I went Kershaw, Cueto, Wainwright as #1,2,3.  I considered bumping Wainwright ahead of Cueto, but in the end, Cueto just had a better season.  Madison Bumgarner (for his regular season performance) was 4th for me, as I value innings pitched immensely.  Jordan Zimmermann and Cole Hamels rounded out my ballot.

  1. Clayton Kershaw (7) – 70 (7)
  2. Johnny Cueto – 60 (7)
  3. Adam Wainwright – 51 (6)
  4. Jordan Zimmermann – 30 (5)
  5. Madison Bumgarner – 28 (4)
  6. Zach Greinke – 20 (3)
  7. Cole Hamels – 12 (2)
  8. Doug Fister – 7 (1)

AL CY YOUNG:  Felix Hernandez

BSB disagrees with the BBWA on this one, as King Felix takes home our Cy Young Award in a race that wasn’t really all that close.  The King got five of the seven 1st-place votes and the other two votes were 2nd-place votes.  In fact, BBWA choice, Cory Kluber, barely held off Chris Sale for 2nd place in our vote.  Not that we didn’t recognize the greatness of Kluber, as he, Felix and Sale were all on all seven ballots.  Those three constituted, in some order, the three top spots on all seven ballots.  Down the list, you can see the Bawlmer homerism, as Chris Tillman and Zack Britton both appear on Cy Young ballots.

This guy is either “muscle” for Gus Fring or a future Hall of Famer…hard to tell

Personally, I wanted to vote for Kluber because I really like him and love his stuff, but the season that King Felix put together was just way too good to vote for anyone else.  I tried to talk myself into Kluber, but couldn’t.  I did have Kluber 2nd, ahead of Sale, because of innings pitched.  The top three were obvious.  After that, I had Jon Lester at #4 and the 5’11” Sonny Gray at #5.  I also gave David Price (underrated season) a 6th-place vote and threw a bone to Phil Hughes at #7 for an incredibly under-the-radar season.

  1. Felix Hernandez (5) – 68 (7)
  2. Cory Kluber (1) – 61 (7)
  3. Chris Sale (1) – 60 (7)
  4. Jon Lester – 27 (4)
  5.  Garrett Richards – 20 (3)
  6. Sonny Gray – 13 (2)
  7. Max Scherzer – 12 (2)
  8. Chris Tillman – 6 (1)
  9. Zack Britton – 5 (1)
  10. David Price – 5 (1)
  11. Phil Hughes – 4 (1)


The Mets rookie sensation, Jacob de Grom, burst on the scene this year and takes with him the coveted BSB NL Rookie of the Year award.  de Grom received six of the seven first-place votes.  Billy Hamilton was the only one even close, but he did not get a single first-place vote, as the one ballot on which de Grom was 2nd, he lost out to a rookie broadcaster.  Nice to see Chris Zanzarella – a rookie BSB participant – get a vote, as well as Yours Truly.

This guy? Seriously?

I voted for de Grom at #1, but actually had future Phils closer, Ken Giles, at #2.  I then went with Kyle Hendricks, who may have only started 13 games for the Cubbies, but he was dominant in those 13.  Billy Hamilton and his sub-.300 OBP was 4th, followed by Kolten Wong and Ender Inciarte.

  1. Jacob de Grom (6) – 69 (7)
  2. Billy Hamilton – 60 (6)
  3. Ken Giles – 31 (4)
  4. Kolten Wong – 21 (3)
  5. Kyle Hendricks – 16 (2)
  6. Gregory Polanco – 16 (2)
  7. Ender Inciarte – 11 (2)
  8. Steve Berthiaume (1) – 10 (1)
  9. Chris Zanzarella – 7 (1)
  10. David Buchanan – 6 (1)
  11. Bryan Cimorelli – 6 (1)
  12. Jorge Soler – 6 (1)


In the only unanimous vote other than Kershaw, Jose Abreu walks away with the AL Rookie of the Year award without contest.  In fact, his 19-point margin over 2nd-place Masahiro Tanaka was the 2nd-largest margin of victory in any award this year behind only AL Manager of the Year.  After Abreu, it was a slew of hurlers, as 2nd through 6th place were all pitchers.  Tanaka was the only other player to make it to all seven ballots.  Yordani Ventura fell one short, landing on six of the seven.  This was actually a pretty clean election, as there were only 8 players that received votes, seven of whom showing up on at least three ballots.

I’d say he had an “okay” rookie year…

Abreu led my 7-person ballot.  I actually considered going Matt Shoemaker ahead of Abreu, considering he was the ace of the best team in baseball, but Abreu’s numbers were insane.  Shoemaker was my #2 followed by future Astros ace, Colin McHugh, current Yankees ace, Masahiro Tanaka, future Royals ace, Yordani Ventura (who is definitely my favorite rookie to watch), and future Yanks closer, Dellin Betances.  The Twins’ .313-hitter, Danny Santana, rounded out my ballot.

  1. Jose Abreu (7) – 70 (7)
  2. Masahiro Tanaka – 52 (7)
  3. Yordani Ventura – 45 (6)
  4. Colin McHugh – 31 (4)
  5. Dellin Betances – 28 (4)
  6. Matt Shoemaker – 21 (3)
  7. Danny Santana – 17 (3)
  8. George Springer – 8 (1)


A pretty hotly contested Manager of the Year race here in the NL ends with Clint Hurdle of the Pirates winning the award thanks to being on five of the seven ballots with three first-place votes (both highs for anyone).  World Champion, Bruce Bochy, finishes second, though Boot made a good point in his ballot as to why he was voting for Bochy (and, this was before the postseason run):  “In 15 years, we will look back at the Giants’ rosters and say Posey is a HOF’er, and that may be it…”  Rookie manager, Matt Williams, finished 3rd followed by Cards 2nd-year man, Mike Matheny.  Interestingly, though there were only 15 NL managers from which to choose, the seven ballots still tabbed four different managers as their top choice.  We also had “negative” votes for Don Mattingly and Kirk Gibson – apparently, they should be 14th and 15th, respectively, in the NL manager pecking order.

I did vote for Hurdle as my #1, but I went Matheny #2.  I originally had Ron Roenicke at #3, but Boot’s comment above swayed me to throw my 3rd-place vote to Bochy.

  1. Clint Hurdle (3) – 23 (5)
  2. Bruce Bochy (2) – 19 (5)
  3. Matt Williams (1) – 16 (4)
  4. Mike Matheny (1) – 12 (3)
  5. Terry Collins – 4 (1)
  6. Don Mattingly – 3 (1)


BSB agrees with the BBWA here, as Uncle Buck wins this award in a landslide.  Garnering six of the seven 1st-place votes, with the only non-1st as a 2nd-place vote, Buck had, by far, the largest margin of victory here, as his 21-point victory came in an award that only granted 5 points for 1st instead of the usual 10.  Terry Francona finished a distant 2nd with Ned Yost coming in 3rd with the only other 1st-place vote.

Uncle Buck

I went with Buck at #1 and Yost at #2 (even though I don’t really support Neddy’s managing style, you have to hand it to him in accomplishing that much with such sparse resources).  My 3rd choice was Lloyd McClendon, who did a great job out in Seattle this year.  I strongly considered Terry Francona, but I think McClendon had a harder time turning around that franchise, but it is close.

  1. Buck Showalter (6) – 34 (7)
  2. Terry Francona – 13 (4)
  3. Ned Yost (1) – 13 (3)
  4. Lloyd McClendon – 7 (2)
  5. Joe Girardi – 6 (2)
  6. Mike Scioscia – 4 (1)


A BSB category here, as we all voted on who we thought were the biggest surprises of the year in the Senior Circuit.  There are always some interesting answers to this one, and a lot of different choices.  There is no real stated criteria, which makes it fun and interesting.  The Pirates’ Josh Harrison and Nats’ Anthony Rendon both appeared on five of the seven ballots and finished 1-2 here in our voting.  Harrison was the only player to get multiple 1st-place votes, as he received three of them.  Rendon did not have any.  Four others received one 1st-place vote each, including Ryan Howard, who got one for not being “completely finished.”  Doogan pegged Justin Turner in the 5-spot, which forced me to look up his numbers only to learn the kid hit .340 this year with a .404 OBP.  Wow…who knew?!?

The Josh of All Trades

I was the one who voted Jonathan Lucroy at #1, as he became a total star, and I never saw that coming.  Rendon and Harrison followed at #2 and #3 for me.  Corey Dickerson, #4 for me, had a .931 OPS over nearly 500 PAs and seems to be completely anonymous (maybe it’s the Coors factor).  The Mets’ shortstop, Juan Lagares, who came out of nowhere to flash as one of the best defensive SSs in the game (and had a OBP 30 points higher than the esteemed Billy Hamilton), was #5 for me.  Anthony Rizzo, who finally showed his real potential was #6, while Phils surprise, Marlon Byrd, cracked my list at #7.

  1. Josh Harrison (3) – 47 (5)
  2. Anthony Rendon – 41 (5)
  3. Jonathan Lucroy (1) – 31 (4)
  4. Anthony Rizzo (1) – 22 (3)
  5. Devin Mesoraco – 14 (2)
  6. Juan Lagares – 12 (2)
  7. Johnny Cueto (1) – 10 (1)
  8. Ryan Howard (1) – 10 (1)
  9. Marlon Byrd – 9 (2)
  10. Charlie Blackmon – 9 (1)
  11. Lucas Duda – 9 (1)
  12. Matt Kemp – 8 (1)
  13. Ben Revere – 8 (1)
  14. Corey Dickerson – 7 (1)
  15. Tim Hudson – 7 (1)
  16. Tanner Roark – 7 (1)
  17. Denard Span – 7 (1)
  18. Justin Turner – 6 (1)


Do you know that, with 186 strikeouts and only 16 walks in 2014, Phil Hughes set the all-time Major League record for K:BB ratio in a single season?  Ya, me neither.  Well, that sure constitutes a “surprise,” and he won the AL’s Biggest Surprise award here in 2014, grabbing two 1st-place votes and appearing on five ballots.  Cory Kluber (one 1st-place vote) was also on five ballots, while Jose Altuve also garnered a pair of 1st-place votes.  Michael Brantley and Albert Pujols received the other 1st-place votes.

Weird there was a failed Yankees prospect that looked just like him…

Phil Hughes was my runaway pick for this, as I always thought he was terrible, so this year was quite the shock for me.  JD Martinez was my #2 for the importance he provided – out of nowhere – for the Tigers.  A couple of MVP candidates followed with Michael Brantley at #3, Jose Abreu at #4, and Jose Altuve at #5.  Brandon McCarthy was #6 because he looked finished before going to the Yanks.  And, finally, I had Cory Kluber at #7.  He was only so low because I am not that surprised he is this good, I am just surprised he is this good this soon.

  1. Phil Hughes (2) – 39 (5)
  2. Cory Kluber (1) – 36 (5)
  3. Jose Altuve (2) – 32 (4)
  4. Nelson Cruz – 27 (3)
  5. Michael Brantley (1) – 26 (3)
  6. JD Martinez – 22 (3)
  7. Steve Pearce – 17 (2)
  8. Jose Abreu – 15 (2)
  9. Albert Pujols (1) – 10 (1)
  10. Brock Holt – 9 (1)
  11. Matt Shoemaker – 9 (1)
  12. Miguel Cabrera – 8 (1)
  13. Chris Carter – 8 (1)
  14. Derek Jeter – 7 (1)
  15. Carlos Carrasco – 6 (1)
  16. Chris Young – 6 (1)
  17. Brandon McCarthy – 5 (1)


In the closest race of all, BJ Upton edges division rival, Dom Brown, for the NL’s biggest disappointment.  It is hard to argue with either, as they were both absolutely dreadful.  The top two were the only two to appear on more than half the ballots, with Upton pacing the field with three 1st-place votes.  Pedro Alvarez edged Jay Bruce for 3rd.  “Beards” got a write-in vote for this category, as Boot feels very disappointed with the abundance of facial hair in the National League these days.  Surprisingly, Ryan Howard was only on one ballot, in 3rd place.  I guess the expectations for him are pretty low these days.  After the top 4, Joey Votto was the only other player to receive a first-place vote.  Interestingly, one of my MVP votes, Andrelton Simmons, received a 3rd-place vote here.  Thoughtful minds really can disagree, though I totally understand the rationale.  Obviously, someone is either a huge Tony Cingrani fan or had him on their fantasy team and felt very let-down.

An all-too-common sight for Braves fans

With a 1-point difference, every ballot with Upton over Brown was the deciding factor, but I definitely played a part here, as I had Upton #1 and Brown #2.  I followed the voters and went Alvarez #3.  I had David Wright #4 because why isn’t this guy a star?  Jonathan Papelbon – for many, many, many reasons – got my 5th-place vote.

  1. BJ Upton (3) – 36 (4)
  2. Dom Brown (1) – 35 (4)
  3. Pedro Alvarez (1) – 27 (3)
  4. Jay Bruce (1) – 26 (3)
  5. Allen Craig – 16 (2)
  6. Curtis Granderson – 14 (2)
  7. David Wright – 14 (2)
  8. Joey Votto (1) – 10 (1)
  9. beards – 9 (1)
  10. Justin Masterson – 9 (1)
  11. Jean Segura – 9 (1)
  12. Ryan Howard – 8 (1)
  13. Andrelton Simmons – 8 (1)
  14. Tony Cingrani – 7 (1)
  15. AJ Burnett – 6 (1)
  16. Shelby Miller – 6 (1)
  17. Jonathan Papelbon – 6 (1)


I guess a guy who hits 50 HRs one year and then has a sub-.200 average the next can be seen as a bit of a disappointment.  Davis and Myers were the the only two to appear on more than half the ballots, though he they received one first-place vote between them.  Clay Bucholz, who was only on two ballots, got two first-place votes.  Justin Verlander was 3rd on this list.  “Beards” were also a problem in the AL, but only for a 3rd-place vote from Boot.  Instead, the “media” received the 2nd-place vote for endlessly covering the swan song of Derek Jeter, but COMPLETELY ignoring the final year of Paul Konerko’s career (which, by the way, is a FANTASTIC point – Konerko might be the most underappreciated player of our generation).  Justin Masterson – impressively – showed up on the disappointment lists in both leagues.

Are we now expecting our stars to hit at least .200 EVERY year? Seems a bit unreasonable

I was the only one to vote for Evan Longoria, but I had him #1.  What a mediocre year for a guy who should be anything but mediocre.  Verlander was 2nd for me, followed by Xander Boegarts, Wil Myers, and Justin Masterson (who I thought was more disappointing for Cleveland than St. Louis) was 5th.

  1. Chris Davis (1) – 32 (4)
  2. Wil Myers – 30 (4)
  3. Justin Verlander (1) – 28 (3)
  4. Clay Bucholz (2) – 20 (2)
  5. Brian McCann (1) – 19 (2)
  6. Xander Boegarts – 17 (2)
  7. Prince Fielder (1) – 16 (2)
  8. Jim Johnson – 15 (2)
  9. CC Sabathia – 14 (2)
  10. Evan Longoria (1) – 10 (1)
  11. Josh Hamilton – 9 (1)
  12. the media – 9 (1)
  13. beards – 8 (1)
  14. Joe Nathan – 8 (1)
  15. Sin-Soo Choo – 7 (1)
  16. Jason Kipnis – 7 (1)
  17. Justin Masterson – 6 (1)
  18. Mark Teixeira – 6 (1)

NL BIGGEST SURPRISE (team):  Miami Marlins

The Marlins were supposed to be dreadful.  They weren’t.  That was surprising.  They have a stable of young fireballers, so they might be a real handful in the NL East for years to come.  Those pesky Pirates finished right behind the Marlins, followed by the Brewers – all of whom were on 4 ballots.  No other team even cracked more than one ballot.  Apparently, one of our voters is still stuck in 2012, as the Astros received a vote here in the NL. The Giants got a 15th-place “not surprised at all vote” because “they are always good every other year.”

Those 800 fans must be pretty excited

Personally, I thought the Brewers were the most surprising team.  They had a really bad last month and a half, but were the NL’s best team for a long stretch with basically no one.  Not sure if I believe in them going forward, but they had a solid 2014, in my opinion.  I put the Pirates 2nd, as I was impressed by their follow-up season after prosperity.  The Marlins were 3rd for me.  Maybe I just had heard of all these arms and wasn’t shocked by their slightly ahead-of-schedule arrival.  Still a scary team, though.

  1. Marlins (3) – 22 (4)
  2. Pirates (1) – 20 (4)
  3. Brewers (2) – 16 (4)
  4. Astros (1) – 5 (1)
  5. Padres (1) – 5 (1)
  6. Giants – 4 (1)
  7. Nationals – 4 (1)
  8. Rockies – 4 (1)
  9. Mets – 3 (1)
  10. Giants – negative 5 (1)

AL BIGGEST SURPRISE (team):  Kansas City Royals

Even before the thrilling playoff run (as these ballots were cast before the playoffs started), the Royals were the runaway choice for this award, appearing on all seven ballots with five first-place votes.  The Orioles were on six ballots and got the other two 1st-place votes as no other team was even close to these two.

Wait, the Royals did what?!?

I was a part of this belief, as I had the Royals at #1 and the O’s at #2.  My 3rd choice was the Mariners because I just found their contention in a really tough division a little more surprising than some of the other teams around the Junior Circuit.

  1. Royals (5) – 33 (7)
  2. Orioles (2) – 23 (6)
  3. Yankees – 8 (2)
  4. Indians – 7 (2)
  5. Angels – 4 (1)
  6. Mariners – 3 (1)
  7. Red Sox – 3 (1)


Picked by many to win the East and most to make the playoffs, the Braves were barely even competitive.  They have a ton of talent, but couldn’t put it together.  It was a bad year in Hotlanta, and I loved it.  They appeared on six of the seven ballots and got two 1st-place votes here.  The Reds actually got three 1st-place votes, but were only on five ballots and finished 2nd.  The Phillies were a distant 3rd (surprisingly, without a single 1st-place vote – kind of shows the lack of expectations for this last-place bunch).  The two other 1st-place votes actually went to my “biggest surprise,” the Brewers, and my pick in this category, the D’backs.

Surprising that the Upton brothers couldn’t pull the team together…

As much as I hate the Braves and love that they won this, I think the absolutely terribleness of the D’backs (a team that some thought might compete) was my biggest disappointment.  I mean, the Braves were at least around .500.  The D’backs were AWFUL.  The Braves got my #2 vote and my Phillies were my #3.

  1. Braves (2) – 26 (6)
  2. Reds (3) – 22 (5)
  3. Phillies – 10 (3)
  4. Brewers (1) – 8 (2)
  5. D’backs (1) – 8 (2)


I guess it’s pretty hard to argue when a team wins the World Series one year and is among the worst teams in all of baseball the next that they are the biggest disappointment.  So, it seems like the BSB voters got this one right.  The Sox were on six of the seven ballots with five 1st-place votes.  The Rangers and A’s got the other two 1st-place votes, while the Rays and Yankees were both on more than half of the ballots.  Interestingly, the Yankees were on four ballots for most disappointing and two ballots for biggest surprise.  There is nothing in between when it comes to people’s opinions of the Bombers.

One-Year Grace Period…right, Beantown?

I actually went Rangers here because they were so bad, so fast, that a very promising season was done by May.  The Red Sox were quite disappointing, for sure, and got my 2nd-place vote, though I strongly considered the Rays (my 3rd-place vote) as even more disappointing, for some reason.  It was a strong field for this award this year.

  1. Red Sox (5) – 29 (6)
  2. Rangers (1) – 19 (5)
  3. Rays – 13 (4)
  4. A’s (1) – 8 (2)
  5. Yankees – 4 (4)
  6. Blue Jays – 4 (1)

MLB BRIGHTEST FUTURE:  Los Angeles Dodgers

This category was defined as the team that will have the most WS titles between 2015 and 2035.  The Dodgers barely edged the terrible 2014 Red Sox.  The terrible 2014 Cubs finished 3rd..  The Cardinals were the only team to get more than one 1st-place vote, as they appeared on two ballots, but were #1 on both of them.  In general, the voting was all over the place here.  This was a very interesting category.  And, despite the polarized feeling about the Yankees, they were only on one ballot and were 4th place on that ballot.

Money can’t buy you…ah, never mind

I was one of the two people to vote for the Cardinals.  They are the best-run franchise in baseball (and maybe all of sports).  They build from within, know when to walk away, but aren’t afraid of paying what it takes to keep/acquire the right player.  They just do it right, and I don’t see why that would change, particularly as they play in a division without a lot of big-spenders or well-run organizations.  I had to go with the Dodgers 2nd just because of the enormous bankroll they seem to have.  The Angels were my 3rd pick because of the money they throw around.  The Giants – the 2nd-best run organization in the sport – got my 4th-place vote.  I did throw in the Red Sox and Cubs at the end of my ballot because they both have a ton of money and ELITE farm systems.

  1. Dodgers (1) – 32 (4)
  2. Red Sox (1) – 31 (4)
  3. Cubs – 27 (4)
  4. Nationals (1) – 25 (3)
  5. Cardinals (2) – 20 (2)
  6. Royals – 17 (2)
  7. Astros (1) – 16 (2)
  8. Angels – 16 (2)
  9. Giants – 14 (2)
  10. Orioles (1) – 10 (1)
  11. Indians – 8 (1)
  12. Twins – 8 (1)
  13. Mariners – 7 (1)
  14. Yankees – 7 (1)
  15. Mets – 6 (1)
  16. White Sox – 6 (1)

MLB BIGGEST REBUILD:  Arizona Diamondbacks

The final category was defined as “the team that will go the longest without its next World Series title.”  This was also a very interesting category.  It drew a lot fewer responses than the brightest future and the top was more closely packed together.  In fact, the D’backs edged the Phillies by a single point, even though the Phightins were the only team with more than one 1st-place vote.  The Twins, White Sox, and Yankees were the only three teams to appear on both lists.

It might be a long, hard climb, Boot

My ballot here started with the Rays.  I think they had their shot and now they will drift back into being the worst franchise in baseball.  They have no money, and they lost their front office braintrust.  It was fun, but it’s over.  The Rockies were my second choice because I do not think they are bright enough to overcome the challenge of building a winner in that cartoon ballpark.  The Padres won’t win because they’re cheap, so they got my 3rd-place vote.  The Brewers are also somewhat cheap and poorly run, so they were 4th for me.  And, the D’backs got my 5th-place vote because I just don’t see their plan.

  1. D’backs (1) – 30 (5)
  2. Phillies (2) – 29 (3)
  3. White Sox – 27 (4)
  4. Padres (1) – 27 (3)
  5. Twins – 23 (3)
  6. Blue Jays – 22 (3)
  7. Brewers – 22 (3)
  8. Yankees (1) – 19 (2)
  9. Rangers (1) – 16 (2)
  10. Rays (1) – 16 (2)
  11. Rockies – 9 (1)
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Super Bowl Thoughts – Coming… (tech difficulties)

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Eagles First Quarter Grades

Well, we are ¼ of the way through the Eagles season with the Birds sitting at 3-1.  Honestly, if you offered me 3-1 through these 4 games, I would have signed for it rather readily.  But, I certainly would not have anticipated the route they have traveled to arrive there.  And, there has to be a part of every Eagles fan that knows that 4-0 was 54 inches away.  All that said, there have been some very good performances so far (and some not so good ones).  So, at the quarterpole, it’s time to give out the First Quarter Grades for each of our guys in green.

Most of the grade is based strictly on my opinion of each player’s performance to date, but there is probably a subconscious “curve” going on here, as I am sure my opinion is at least partially affected by my expectations and what is asked of each player.  For instance, Brad Smith is going to get a higher grade than Riley Cooper, but that does not at all mean that I think Smith should be ahead of Cooper on the depth chart.  I just believe that based on what was expected and what is asked of each player, Smith has delivered more than Cooper.  If their expectations and roles were switched, the grades would be very different.

Anyway, on to the grades…



Nick Foles – C+
The first grade handed out was one of the hardest to give.  What can you say about a guy that has thrown for a ton of yards and leads an offense that has scored the 3rd most points in the league through 4 weeks.  However, he has looked shaky – including a clunker in San Fran.  Now, some of that has to do with the makeshift O-line, so I gave him a bit of a break there, but a completion percentage below 60% is not good and some of the misses have been big misses.  In the end, the guy has still led 3 late comeback wins and was 54 inches from 4-for-4 on Sunday.  We are going to need much better QB play, for sure, but Foles hasn’t been as terrible as our favorite Chicken Littles may want you to believe.

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy – D
The O-line can only go so far as an excuse for flat-out POOR play from the “best RB on the planet.”  To me, he looks hurt.  He was always so good at making the first guy miss, so the bad offensive line shouldn’t be hurting him as much as it would some other backs.  Also, he has really struggled in pass protection, which has always been a real strength of his game.  My big fear:  Shady has always been great about understanding when to get out of bounds and not chance another hit.  But, with his immense frustration right now could cause him to take push for extra yardage and get himself hurt.  For better or worse, the Birds will be riding Shady as far as he can take them, and he must be healthy for any of these high aspirations to see the light of day.

Darren Sproles – A+
For the past 5-6 years, my favorite non-Eagle has been Darren Sproles.  Now, he’s an Eagle, and he has been everything I dreamed he could be.  The only knock against him is that he has disappeared a bit on offense the past two weeks, but I blame the o-line and gameplan for that more than Sproles himself.  And, in San Fran, he showed that you don’t have gameplan him in to get impact, as he took a punt return to the house.  This guy is amazing.

Chris Polk – C-
“The most important ability is availability.”  Or, as Doogan always says, “health is a skill.”  Polk needs to be healthy.  We could use his change of pace going forward.  But, he has been banged up and unready to play.  His grade is only saved by that huge kick return against Washington.  Other than that, I have been very disappointed that he has not put himself in position to contribute more.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin – A-
After two games, I was very concerned about the wideouts in general.  But, the past two weeks completely eliminated my concern about our #1.  Maclin seems to be getting comfortable on his knee and is poised to potentially become an elite receiver in this league.  He has been making tough catches and shown that he can take the top off of the defense the way DeSean used to do.  He’s currently 5th in the NFL in receiving yards and poor deep throws by his QB has cost him at least 2 or 3 more big plays or he might be #1.

Riley Cooper – F
As good as Maclin has been, Cooper has been worse.  Honestly, there is no one on this roster in whom I have been more disappointed than Mr. Cooper.  And, I am not trying to pile on here or play hyperbole.  He has been dreadful.  There have been two touchdowns – including on in the Niners game that could have completely changed that game – that were flat-out dropped.  He is not getting open, and he is not making plays.  Remind me again why we think he’s good?  He has been a borderline #4 wideout for all but 10 game s in his career – those 10 games just happened to be the last 10 of 2013.  But, shouldn’t we think that that was the fluke and not the entire rest of his career?  I am very concerned about the #2 wideout position right now.

Jordan Matthews – B+
Matthews has been very good in the slot.  He is still making his way as a rookie WR.  This grade is definitely on a curve because I do not think he has made all that much of an impact, but that is more because (a) he hasn’t gotten the chances (I am hoping that will change going forward) and (b) he is a rookie WR.  Rookie WRs rarely produce right away, but Matthews looks like the exception so far.  I am not ready to say he can be a productive outside receiver yet, but with the struggles of Cooper, we may find out sooner than we otherwise should.

Brad Smith – C+
He hasn’t been asked to do much, but he has been okay when in there.  I still like his versatility and think he is a lot more valuable to this team than he may appear on the surface (not to mention his special teams contributions).

Jeff Maehl – D-
I have no idea why he continues to make this roster.  Is there no one out there that would be an upgrade here?  Honestly…

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz – A-
I know he had a rough homecoming in San Fran, but I am not letting that overshadow what he has meant to this offense in their 3 wins.  There is a real chance that Ertz becomes the backbone of the passing attack for years to come.  He is a special player, who is just about to break out.  His pass-catching ability and perfect fit for this offense even allows me to overlook the fact that he is not a very good blocker at this point in his career.  He is improving in that area, though, and is good enough to keep the defense honest.  This guy is a budding superstar.

Brent Celek – B+
A B+ for a guy with 3 catches in 4 games?  Yes.  First of all, Celek has turned himself into an outstanding blocking tight end.  And, regardless of the numbers, he still has to be respected as a pass-catcher by the defense, which makes him invaluable.  He is not just a blocker when in the game – and, like Maclin, his numbers could look a lot better if the QB had connected on a couple of deep balls.  Celek is still an important piece to this offense and, given the o-line struggles, has done all he can this year to lend a hand.

James Casey – D+
The first Chip Kelly free agent signing has been really disappointing for a year and a half now.  I know he made a huge catch to seal the game against Washington, but that is his only catch this year, and he has shown to not be the blocker we thought he was.  The guy we thought we were getting would fit rather nicely in this offense.  Unfortunately, we never got that guy.  I hope you all enjoyed the James Casey Era because it’s just about over in Philly.

Offensive Line

Jason Peters – A-
There are some “experts” who believe that Peters looks like he has taken a step backwards this year.  I am not sure I agree.  Yes, there haven’t been a ton of those plays where you watch and say “how does a guy that big do THAT?!?”  But, I think that is more because end-runs by McCoy and the bubble screens by the WRs haven’t been as prevalent this year.  To be honest, for a guy like Peters, who has always jumped off the screen because of his incredible plays, to be the steady, consistent guiding force of a beat-up, inexperienced offensive line shows a real maturity and progression to his game.  It is hard to fault the one guy in his rightful position that is seemingly holding this o-line together.

Todd Herremans – B
The point about Peters being the steady force guiding this makeshift line is the reason I gave Herremans such a high grade.  He has not exactly been that great this year, but he has been at least adequate at multiple positions with changing guys all around him.  O-lines crave consistency and familiarity, so for Herremans to play different positions with different guys just about every week and still be rather effective is an indication of how much of a pro he is.

Jason Kelce – B
Before he got hurt, Kelce had an A+. I think he had become the best center in the NFL – and BY FAR the best center for this offense.  Unfortunately, he’s on the shelf.  This offense NEEDS its center.

All Other O-Linemen – C-
I was going to go through them individually, but it is just not worth it because of the lack of time and such.  Andrew Gardner has seen the most action of the “second stringers” and has not been terrible.  David Molk was barely serviceable (and that’s actually generous) as Kelce’s replacement in San Fran.  Dennis Kelly has been okay, but has clearly shown why he is a 6th lineman in this league.  Allen Barbre barely saw the field before being placed on IR.  Same for Evan Mathis, though he’s due back (thank god – because he’s irreplaceable).  And, then there’s Matt Tobin.  The coaching staff loves this guy, and he has all the tools to really make an impact in this offense.  But, he was absolutely DREADFUL in San Fran on Sunday.  Just awful.  It looks like he is going to get another chance even with Lane Johnson coming back, but he can’t give the same performance this week or he might not ever get a third chance.



Fletcher Cox – A-
I have been driving the Fletcher Cox bandwagon since he was drafted and have finally been vindicated this year.  Cox has been sensational.  The only reason the grade isn’t higher is because I want to see more sacks on the stat sheet.  But, he has brought some pressure and, more importantly, has been incredible against the run.  He is playing at a borderline All-Pro level and is going to be a stalwart on this defense for years to come.

Cedric Thornton – A
The higher grade does not mean he has outplayed Cox – it’s just been that, compared to expectations, the undrafted free agent, Thornton, may be the most underrated player on this Eagles roster.  Week in and week out, he just puts out stellar performances – taking on blockers, setting an edge, and creating havoc in the middle of the o-lines.  This defense is still built around strength up front, which makes Thornton one of the most important players in green every single week.

Bennie Logan – B
I am going more with what I read and hear than what I see on Logan.  People that know more than me seem to think he has been playing outstanding football in the middle.  Personally, I haven’t seen a lot that has jumped out at me.  But, having only closely watched a 3-4 defense for 21 games now, I fully admit that I might not fully understand the nuances of nose tackle.  Either way, there is no doubt that Logan has filled a very important need in this defense, as he appears to be a certifiable NFL nose – and those are hard to come by.

Vinny Curry – D+
This might be unfair because I am tired of the hype around a guy that is clearly lost against the run.  I was always able to put up with the lack of run stopping ability when he was getting to the QB, but he hasn’t really been doing that either this year.  I love the hometown kid, who grew up dreaming of playing for the Eagles, but I won’t be heartbroken when he’s let go this offseason.  (That said, it wouldn’t shock me in the least if he is the next Derek Burgess and has 17 sacks in Oakland next year or something like that).

Beau Allen – C-
He doesn’t seem to cause much havoc when he’s in there – and it’s hard to miss him with that ridiculous hair.

Brandon Bair – C+
I would be lying if I said that I have noticed all that much of Bair either way.  He seems to be decent on special teams, despite not being the type of guy who plays much “teams.”


DeMeco Ryans – A
It is not necessarily the overall playmaking of Ryans that got him an A in the first quarter.  It is the fact that he is the undisputed leader of this defense and, at 30 years old, has played every single snap (at a grueling position) for a team that leads the league in defensive snaps.  And, this will be the second straight year that he leads the league in snaps played on defense.  If you value “steady’ (which I value VERY HIGHLY), then you love DeMeco Ryans.

Connor Barwin – A-
Am I too high on a defense that has stuggled at times this year?  Just wait…  Anyway, Connor Barwin has been outstanding all year.  I wish he would start putting sacks up on the board, but he is so good at deflecting passes and sniffing out play calls, that it is hard to hold that against him right now.  This has been a very underrated signing for this team, as Barwin comes to play every week – no bells, no whistles – just hard-nosed linebacking.  I love that.

Trent Cole – C-
I hate to pour dirt on one of the best Eagles in a generation, but we need to be honest here.  If Cole isn’t putting up monster sack numbers at OLB, then he is probably really hurting your defense.  He will always be a liability in coverage (through no real fault of his own, considering he lived on this Earth for 30 years without EVER being asked to cover anyone), but so are Clay Matthews and DeMarcus Ware.  Well, Trent Cole is not causing nearly enough pressure to make up for his lack of coverage skills.  They are stuck with him now because Marcus Smith clearly isn’t ready and Brandon Graham is just a younger, not as good version of Cole (more on these two in a minute), but one of my favorite all-time Eagles is a real liability for the 2014 team.  Shh – let’s keep that rather quiet, though, out of respect for an all-time great.

Brandon Graham – B-
I don’t think Graham will ever be an upgrade to Cole, but at least, when given the chance, he is getting to the QB.  There is no doubt the guy is a bust for where they took him, but at this point in his career, I think he is valuable, and I am glad that no one panicked and cut him loose this offseason.  We will see if he earned himself another contract (probably not), but for now, I am glad to have him.

Mychal Kendricks – A-
This would have been an A+ if he were healthy.  But, he is not.  That said, if Kendricks can at all replicate the first 2.5 games he was out there in the final 12, this defense might actually be one day considered rather good.  It is nice to see a young LB turning in to a star right before our eyes, though.  Get back on the field, Mychal.

Emmanuel Acho – C
I wish he didn’t have to play at all…ever.  But, he hasn’t been terrible.  The Najeh Goode injury looks really big now, as Goode would have been a nice fill-in for Kendricks.  Acho has shown something on special teams, as well, so he has been okay.  It is just a shame that it is such a huge step down from Kendricks to the Acho/Matthews combination.

Casey Matthews – D-
He stinks.  I just hope that this Casey Matthews Experiment ends this year.  Please…

Marcus Smith – D+
He hasn’t gotten a chance to play, but that doesn’t mean that that isn’t his fault.  And, just because the team reached for him as a first-round pick doesn’t excuse the fact that he can’t get on the field.  Someone else would have taken him in the 1st or early 2nd.  I know that he is a bit of a project, and we should wait to fully evaluate the Smith selection, but it is really tough to swallow when your 1st-round pick can’t get on the field (I can’t tell you my reaction every time I see Darqueze Denard make another play for Cincinnati).  All in all, though, I like the fact that he was able to move to ILB in one week and not look totally lost – a little anxious, maybe, but not lost.  Oh well, I guess we should just look at Jordan Matthews as the #1 and Smith as a work-in-process #2.


Cary Williams – C-
I have always been a Williams defender.  I actually like his attitude.  I think the “F you” attitude is needed in today’s NFL – particularly at CB.  However, when the “F you” is turned inside (more specifically, at the coach) then you’ve lost me.  But, beside the stupid comment about practice tiring him out (even though he missed that whole week of practice), Williams has not been very good on the field.  In his defense, he is not really a #1 corner.  In NOT his defense, he is paid like one.  I may have actually been kind with this grade.

Bradley Fletcher – D
This season has been a nightmare for Fletcher in coverage.  I considered a flat-out F, but I do like his tackling ability.  And, after years of Asante Samuel and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, I do have a soft spot for corners that are willing to tackle.  Unfortunately, he is paid to cover receivers, and he just can’t do that right now.

Brandon Boykin – B+
I am not jumping on this “Boykin needs to play outside right now” bandwagon.  BUT…I am DEFINITELY on the “Boykin needs to play more snaps” bandwagon.  I don’t care how you get him in the game, but this guy needs to be on the field.  I am not sure he’s a superstar in the making, but I am sure that he has done just about everything he can in his limited action.

Nolan Carroll III – C+
Carroll hasn’t seen much of the field, either, but I kind of put some of that blame on him.  The coaching staff has never said that Carroll isn’t an outside CB, so if they saw anything in practice, they might replace Fletcher on the outside.  So, while the limited action I have seen has been positive with Carroll, I have to believe that he has been less than impressive in practice or he would be on the outside.  Or…maybe that change is coming.


Malcolm Jenkins – A
Hard to say anything negative about Malcolm Jenkins.  He has been everything we could have hoped for.  He has come up with timely interceptions (including that return TD for an offense that probably wouldn’t have scored there based on how they were moving the ball).  He has done exactly what they said he would do when they signed him – bring versatility.  He can cover man-to-man, play the single high, or come into the box in run defense.  In fact, that last point is the one that has been most impressive to me.  I didn’t realize he was such a sound tackler.  Jenkins has been terrific.

Nate Allen – D+
I have held out on saying this because I still thought there was hope for Nate Allen.  But, you know what?  I am officially DONE with Allen.  He blows coverages (and not just the obvious one against D-Jax) and gets manhandled at the line of scrimmage.  And, for a free safety, he takes the worst angles I have ever seen.  It is like he thinks he like 10% faster than he actually is…and, bad angles is not exactly a good trait for the last line of defense.  I’m ready to move on.

Earl Wolff – C
I like Wolff.  I know that he is a bit undisciplined, but he hits people, and he is really aggressive going for the ball in the air.  I don’t think he’s ready to replace Allen midseason, but if I were planning the personnel, I would be looking for Wolff to be the starting FS in 2015.


Bryan Braman/Chris Maragos – A+
The biggest improvement for the Eagles from Chip Kelly, Year 1 to Chip Kelly, Year 2 has been – without a doubt – the kick coverage teams.  A lot has to do with the kicker and punter (more on that below), but I think the complete overhaul, which was led by the free agent signings of Braman and Maragos – among others.

Cody Parkey – A
I could have knocked him for the short miss in the Indy game, but he came back and made the game-winner.  And, while the two 51-yarders are nice, the reason I gave Parkey an A is because the Eagles touchback percentage has gone from 40% in 2013 to 60% in 2014.  That 60% is 15th in the league, but doesn’t take into account the fact that 3 of the 4 games were at the Linc or San Fran – two difficult places to kick for distance.  Parkey is booming the ball – and that is a welcome change.

Donnie Jones – B+
This might be a little unfair because he has been really good again this year (particularly in hangtime and placement).  I guess I just downgraded him a bit because he hasn’t been quite as incredible as he was last year (when he was sensational).  Still it is such a luxury to have such a steady, solid, smart punter.

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8 Biggest Takeaways of the Birds 2-0 Start

So, here we are through two rather interesting games of the Eagles season, and the Birds sit at 2-0, including a shaky home win against a really bad team and an impressive road win over a pretty good team.  It doesn’t matter how you get there, as long as you get there, but let’s take a look at what we have seen so far in these 120 minutes of game action.  Here are my biggest takeaways through the first two games:

1). Nick Foles looks shaky
I know, it is strange for the #1 takeaway for a 2-0 team to be a negative one.  It is even stranger for that negative to be about the QB who is 2nd in the league in passing yards and is in charge of the league’s highest scoring offense.  I have come around and am officially a “Foles guy” now, but we have to be honest – he looks a bit shaky.  The first half against Jacksonville was abysmal, and the first half against Indy wasn’t all that much better.  He has missed open receivers and has misthrown several short passes and bubble screens.  While he did rally both times and showed some real resiliency, he does not seem to have the same poise and accuracy that he had last year.  But, let’s remember, it’s early.  They’re 2-0.  And, they lead the league in points scored, so we will take 19 of those “shaky” games if they turn out the same result.  I am actually encouraged by the fact that both Foles and McCoy have been relatively quiet and they have 64 points and 2 wins in two games.

2). The two guys picked ahead of Foles look FANTASTIC
Foles – the 3rd-round pick – may be the most nationally well-known Eagle drafted in the 2012 draft, but the two guys the Eagles drafted before their franchise QB have are on the brink of legit stardom – and they are both on the other side of the ball.  Mychal Kendricks has shown flashes of brilliance in each of his first two seasons in the NFL, but he was annoyingly (at least to me) inconsistent.  This year, he looks like a total stud across the board.  Now, we don’t really know the extent of the calf injury he suffered Monday night, but before he left, he had put in 7 incredible quarters of football in 2014 – making plays all over the field.  He can cover tight ends and even some slot receivers when needed, but he can also get to the QB and is a killer against the run.  Now, I haven’t been as high on him as most in his first 2 years, but right now, he looks like the centerpiece of a potentially outstanding defense for the next decade.

The other budding superstar is a guy that I have actually been higher on than most since being drafted #11 overall in 2012 – Fletcher Cox.  I know that he didn’t exactly “pop” in either of his first two years, but it is happening now right before our eyes.  He still leaves a little to be desired in his ability to get to the QB (which is always going to make the casual observer mark him down a peg), but his ability to set the edge in the run game and pursue ballcarries (or scrambling QBs) is incredible.  And, I think that his lack of consistent QB pressure has more to do with the fact that he is still learning the ins and outs of the 3-4 (he is much more natural in the 4-3).  This year, however, he is starting to eat up multiple blockers in the pass game, which will, hopefully, lead to more QB pressure across the defense.  Either way, Fletcher Cox is becoming a real star in this league and, along with Kendricks, the ridiculously underrated Connor Barwin and the ever-steady Demeco Ryans, could be the centerpiece of a defense that has actually looked very, very good through two games.

3).They do miss D-Jax…schematically…but are a significantly better football team without him
This is no real surprise, as he is a dynamic playmaker who makes a lot of things happen even when he doesn’t get the ball.   All his big plays aside, maybe the true value of DeSean Jackson on the field was the impact he had on everyone else in the passing game.  Countless D-coordinators have said, flat-out, that they used to completely tailor their defensive gameplans around containing DeSean.  Safeties would always have to cheat his way, and the #1 corners that “travelled” would always find their way to his side.  Without him out there, the safeties are more free to roam in pass coverage and help in the run game.

HOWEVER…while Chip & Co. are too classy to come out and say it, I think that the team is much better because he is gone.  If you ever get a chance to hear guys like Adam Caplan talk about it (and, very few know more about the inner workings of the Eagles than Caplan), the real problem with Jackson came down to attitude.  Now, that seems like an obvious comment, but Caplan puts a different spin on it and provides stark examples.  Caplan talks about how Chip Kelly had decided midway through last season that they were going to move on without Jackson because he was holding back a lot of what they wanted to do around there.  It wasn’t the gang ties; it wasn’t the cursing out of the coaching staff; it wasn’t even his stark refusal to buy-in to the smoothies and sleep monitors.  It was simple – the thing that Kelly’s offense gets the most press for is its tempo.  And, Jackson was slowing them down.  That tempo doesn’t just come from “hurrying up” on Sunday afternoon when you have the ball.  That tempo comes from intricate practice schemes, where the players practice over and over getting tackled, jumping up, throwing the ball to the ref, and running back to the line.  Jackson never wanted to do that – particularly in practice.  Kelly believes (according to Caplan) that Jackson’s refusal to take this uptempo style at practices (and oftentimes games) seriously enough slowed the whole team down.  So, he cut him.  And, the tempo is soaring through two games and is possibly the reason that this team is the only team in NFL history to be 2-0 after trailing both games by 14+ points in the second half.

4). Practice matters
With today’s CBA, practice times have been slashed.  Coaches have less ability to mold their players the way they want.  But, the Eagles and Genius Kelly have found a way to combat this.  While practice “time” is regulated, there is no restriction, obviously, on practice “reps.”  And, by all accounts, Chip Kelly’s practices are the most efficient practices this sport has ever seen.  Dick Vermeil estimated that Kelly gets 3x as many reps in any given 2-hour practice than Vermeil’s teams ever did.  And, what does this do?  Well, for one, it allows Chip’s teams to get more work on their gameplans than anyone else in the league, but, secondly – and maybe more telling so far – is that it makes the Eagles the most well-conditioned team in the league.  You look around the league in these two weeks, and you will see an avalanche of games that turned drastically in the second halves.  Both Eagles wins, the Bears on Sunday night, the Patriots loss in Week One, the Browns nearly winning two games after bad first halves, etc., etc., etc.  Early in the season, conditioning matters at the end of games, particularly in the heat.  Late in the season, it matters in keeping guys healthy (the Eagles were the healthiest team in the league in Chip’s first year).  This stuff matters – and that is why this coach makes more of a difference on his team than any coach I have ever followed closely.

5). These WRs are not very good
I know we are only two games into his shiny new contract, but Riley Cooper looks like he is straight stealing $25 million out there.  He is not getting open and not making plays.  He looks like the lost, mediocre receiver that he was his entire career other than the second half of 2013.  Why do we think that he “figured something out” again?

Jeremy Maclin looks a little better, but he does not look anything close to a #1 receiver right now – nor does it look like he ever will be, to be honest.  He has good speed, but nothing game-changing, and he has a willingness to go get the tough catch, but I am not sure he has the ability.  I said it all offseason, they should have given Houston a 2nd-rounder for Andre Johnson – and, I really value high draft picks and do not value WRs on the wrong side of 30 – I just think that was the last piece of this offensive puzzle.  But, again, this is the top-scoring team in the NFL, so who’s complaining.

6). That “silent killer” is gone this year
People talk about return and coverage production as “hidden yardage.”  Well, does anyone notice how much better the special teams’ coverage is this year than last?  The front office made significant free agent investments in Bryan Braman and Chris Maragos as well as personnel decisions seemingly driven completely by coverage ability.  And, through two games, it seems to have paid off.  And, by “paid off” I mean that I have not noticed the coverage teams…at all.  Coverage teams are like referees or offensive linemen – typically, the more you notice them, the worse they are.  Just think back to last year and just how hair-pullingly frustrating the coverage teams (and lack of touchbacks, by the way) were.  You don’t have that same feeling this year, do you?  Ya, me neither…and, I like it.

7). How can we go this far without mentioning…?
Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz!  No, seriously, how amazingly do these two fit into this offense?  The personnel matchups are so hard to defend.  Such versatility combined with brilliant play design means that, short of playing nickel or dime packages, it is almost impossible to avoid having LBs covering either Ertz or Sproles or both – and that is the perfect recipe for big play after big play.  And, the more that Ertz and Sproles dominate games this way, the more teams will have to go into sub-packages meaning LeSean McCoy may be running into nickel and dime packages…yes, please.  This offesnse is just going to get harder and harder to defend as it goes.

8). And, the heartbeat of this offense continues
All of these great matchups and brilliant play design is great and all, but this offense (and most offenses) begins and ends up front.  Jason Peters continues to be one of the best tackles of this generation, and certainly the best left tackle in football right now.  Now, I am no expert on O-line play, but I believe you would be hard-pressed to find a center better in the league than Jason Kelce.  And, there are a lot of people who believe that Evan Mathis is the best guard in the league.  That means that when (if) Mathis comes back, 3/5 of this line will be the best in the league at their position.  Throw in the solid veteran of Herremans and an athletic Top-4 pick in Lane Johnson (who will be back Week 5), and you have an ELITE offensive line – probably the best in the game – which is enabling all of that magic to happen around them.  And, I can’t wait for the next act…

Posted in NFL | 2 Comments

Better Call Stri: The Ray Rice Fiasco Response

Those are really good questions. I agree that we can quickly rule out the theory that Goodell saw the tape and is just bald faced lying about it. If he saw the tape, he isn’t the only one who knows he saw the tape, and if it came out that he was lying about that he could kiss his job goodbye. So, that leads us to your question of why didn’t Goodell see the tape?

It wasn’t that the NFL couldn’t get the tape (it was briefly available online). It wasn’t that Goodell (or anyone else) wanted plausible deniability. Plain and simple, it was arrogance.

The day after the NFL suspended Ray Rice for 2 games, ESPN published an article about the suspension. ELEVEN paragraphs down in the article was this little tidbit: “Rice allegedly struck Palmer unconscious on Feb. 15 while in a casino elevator in Atlantic City. Video surfaced online showing Rice dragging an apparently unconscious Palmer out of the elevator. The couple has since married.”

So, you’re Roger Goodell, master of the universe, commissioner of the NFL, $44 million dollar man, highly experienced in these types of discipline issues, with a bevy of the smartest lawyers, advisors, and PR people at your disposal. You know: (i) Rice struck Palmer, (ii) the blow was allegedly so severe that it struck Palmer unconscious, (iii) he dragged her unconscious body out of the elevator, and (iv) the couple has since married. This has been widely reported by reliable sources. You have interviewed Ray Rice, who has ADMITTED to this exact series of events. Don’t you have enough information at this point to decide what the discipline will be? I mean, we’re not solving the Kennedy assassination here. There aren’t conflicting accounts to sort through. Do you have to actually witness his hand making contact with her head to figure out how many games he gets for knocking his wife unconscious?

Besides, if there were anything on that tape that dramatically changed the analysis, surely it would have come out by now. The alleged incident happened Feb. 15. The discipline happened July 24. It was well know what the admitted to facts were for almost 6 months. The damn video was briefly posted ONLINE. No protests, no boycotts, no letters from the national organization of women, no mass press coverage. Compare that to Michael Vick and Donald Sterling. DAYS after those allegations surfaced, the internet blew up. These were major, major, major stories, almost instantaneously. Roger Goodell is a prudent guy — he waited through six months of near silence (compared to Sterling and Vick anyway) before issuing the discipline…this was yesterday’s news.

The 2 game ban is issued on July 24 and ESPN reports in the story announcing the freaking bad (in paragraph 11) that he knocked his wife unconscious in an elevator. The response? Virtually crickets. No protests, no boycotts, no NOW letters. No cuts by the Ravens. At worst, the reaction was mild condemnation of the penalty as too light. But not even the critics were suggesting an indefinite ban.

Goodell didn’t see the video, because he didn’t need to see the video. He had all the facts he needed to have, and he had waited ample time to gauge public opinion.

So why was the punishment so light? Here is the dirty little secret we just uncovered: Absent a obvious risk to the image (and, thus, bottom line of the league), the powers that be in the NFL think that knocking your fiancé unconscious in an elevator really deserves a two game ban. If Roger Goodell and the rest of the entire world HAD seen the video in February, and there was no public uproar about it by July 23, Ray Rice would have been banned 2 games on July 24. It wasn’t that Goodell got the suspension wrong because he didn’t see the video. He got the suspension wrong because he didn’t anticipate that the video could (or would) change public opinion so completely.

Logically, this all kind of makes sense. I admit to burning down your house in open court. You agree that’s what I did. Does the jury need to see a video of me lighting the match and actually placing it on your house to sentence me? Intellectually, you want to say no. But then you see the video and maybe I’m stumbling around drunk when I do it. Or maybe I’m stone cold sober and laughing like a maniac. Well, now it matters. A lot. Who knew?

Ray Rice got off with a light 2 game ban because that is what Goodell and the rest of the NFL bigwigs thought that his conduct deserved, given all the factors (including public reaction and damage to the NFL’s brand) that existed on July 23. Then, public reaction shifted dramatically, and now they say they “got it wrong” because they “didn’t see the tape.” So they do a 180 and give the customers what they want. Because nobody ever got rich actually telling the American public that they’re wrong. Not seeing a tape is just a fig leaf they’re using. Because “we didn’t give a crap, tape or no tape, until the public freaked” may be true, but it isn’t the PR message you want to be sending out right now.

The stark and sobering reality is that Goodell seeing that tape before issuing the first suspension wouldn’t have made one whit of difference. The only thing that would have changed anything is if the mass public saw — and reacted — before the first suspension came down.

Two other quick points. First, I do think that it mattered greatly that Janay forgave him and married him. To quote Paul George, Goodell was (at least partially) thinking: “I don’t condone hitting women or think it’s cool, but if she ain’t trippin then I ain’t trippin.”

Second, I’ve done my share of internal investigations. They’re not easy. They’re constantly evolving and they never quite end up where you think they will. That’s why these leagues sometimes hire serious people: $2500 lawyers, former U.S. attorneys, former director of the fbi, to conduct the investigations. You’re absolutely right that the cardinal rules are: get out in front of the controversy and get ALL the information. But those two things ALWAYS conflict. Getting out in front requires you to move fast. Getting all the information requires you to move slow, to subpoena video tapes, to fight out those subpoenas in court if need be. Sometimes you can’t do both.

Goodell’s primary sin wasn’t failing to watch the video tape (although that certainly was A sin). His primary sin was thinking that a 2 game ban was appropriate for a player knocking out his fiancé in an elevator. Some of the most damaging scandals occur when you get caught saying something you really believe.

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Better Call Stri: The Ray Rice Fiasco

Have a legal question?  Better call Stri.

And, sports these days are full of legal questions.  It’s a good thing we now have one of the best legal minds on the payroll here at BSB.  So, here’s the first installment of “Better Call Stri,”  where try and get some insight into the legal rationale of some of these crazy off-the-field sports stories that seem to be coming up at a ridiculous rate these days (I “blame” social media and the 24-hour news cycle, but we can blame them for everything, right?)

Anyway, this whole Ray Rice thing has been run into the ground, so I will save any soapboxing or pointless self-aggrandizing comments like “where I come from, we don’t hit our women” or “my parents raised me to treat all people with respect.”  Those serve no purpose in useful conversations other than to waste time with the obvious.

No, what I am fascinated by – and want to get Stri’s legal opinion on – is just how could the most powerful sports league in the nation (if not the world) screw this up so badly?

To me, there are two key aspects of this story – (1) why did Goodell come down on Rice so lightly in the first place, and (2) why is he now claiming not to have seen the tape?

So, counselor, mind if we start with the second one first because this is the part that I honestly cannot even wrap my head around?

First, let us establish some givens before we embark here.  One, let us assume that Roger Goodell – for whatever you think of him – is a highly intelligent man or, at the VERY least is surrounded by highly intelligent people.  Two, let us also assume that his $44 million annual salary does actually ensure that everything he does is keeping the best interests of the league (and by “league,” I simply mean its 32 owners) paramount.  So, why would he say he didn’t see the tape?

Can we first dismiss out of hand that he saw it and is now lying about it?  That would be inanely stupid, and if that is the case, then it is not worth talking about anything else because we are just dealing with flat stupidity.  There is no way he would think he could get away with a bald-faced lie of that caliber.

So, now we are working under the assumption that he actually did not see a tape of which he admits to having knowledge at the time of his ill-fated decision to suspend Rice for 2 games.  Why didn’t he see the tape?  Are we really to believe that he – and all the power/money that his league wields – was simply unable to get his hands on it?  We know that the casino had it.  We know that the police had it.  We know that Rice (or, at least his lawyers) had it.  And, we know that it only took TMZ less than a month to get it.  So, can we really believe that they COULD NOT get it?  At the very least, they could have said to Rice, “you are suspended until you show us the tape and then we will decide on when to reinstate you.”

So, the only next logical step is that they CHOSE not to view the tape.  This is the part that I really need some input here, Stri.  Why would they choose not to see it?  They know it is out there.  They probably know that it is going to come out.  And, they know that their level of punishment will be – fairly or unfairly – judged based almost exclusively on the level of emotional reaction that this tape will stir up in the general public.  So, why not?

The only logical conclusion I can come up with here is plausible deniability.  Am I right here, counselor?  Did Goodell decide that he wanted plausible deniability about the contents of the tape before taking action on the suspension.  And, if so, why?

That “why” is the perfect segue into the first question posed at the beginning here – Why did Goodell come down so lightly on Ray Rice in the first place – tape or no tape?  Why did the guy who has legitimately earned a reputation of unwavering commitment to “law and order,” to the point of nearly alienating his entire labor force, now come down so SOFT on a player?!?  Who is Ray Rice and why is Goodell picking Rice as the one for whom he risks it all?  Why is he so hellbent on giving Rice a punishment that is, AT BEST, on the LIGHTEST possible side of defensible and, at worst, a conscious slap in the face to all those affected and/or appalled by domestic violence in any form?  Why is this so important to him to let Rice off easy that he had to go out of his way to attain plausible deniability of a potential “smoking gun?”

Stri, any ideas?

Did they think that they could get away with letting the facts come out, weighing public opinion, and then thinking they could just alter their course to maintain alignment with public sentiment?  The “new” policy on domestic violence may be evidence of this way of thinking – along with the indefinite suspension of Rice after the tape riled up such an incredible reaction.

Did Goodell, a strong family man, just get swayed by the pleadings of a victim – a wife – to not be punished more by taking away her livelihood?  Did he believe that her husband had never done it before and would certainly never do it again.  Or, did he just find a soft spot for a “first-time offender,” who was, by all accounts, a pillar in the community (which seemed definitely to be true to me, living here during his entire career) and his pleading wife?  Was this punishment just a lenient judgment from a bleeding-hearted family man?  While it sound unlikely that this is the case, I guess it is not out of the realm of possibility that Goodell simply felt bad that this happened, saw it as a heat-of-the-moment mistake by an otherwise good man.  BUT… even if Goodell was swayed by the soon-to-be Mrs. Rice and her “first-time-offender” of a husband, doesn’t he have advisors?  Isn’t he surrounded be a swath of people whose only job is to “protect the shield,” particularly from negative publicity?  Where were they?

Or, maybe we should get all “conspiracy theory” here and say that this all had to do with Jim Irsay.  Maybe Goodell wanted to go light on Irsay, but did not want to risk total mutiny by continuing to levy harsh penalties to players, while not doing the same to those who pay his salary?  So, he let Rice of light, thought it would blow over before he gave Irsay a slightly harsher punishment (though much lighter than he probably deserves), and that’s that.

Or, is it something else that I have not even thought of?

Either way, there is not a reason that I can think of that could possibly explain the fact that this very savvy and experienced public leader broke the ultimate tenets of restoring and retaining public image:  (a) get out in front of a controversy and, going hand-in-hand with that, (b) always make sure that you have ALL the information.  Right?  What am I missing here, esteemed gentleman of the law?

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BSB’s 2014 NFL Preview

For those of you unfamiliar with the preview, instead of the typical, been-done-again-and-again season previews, we like to make a game out of our previews, along with being informative. What we do is kind of a draft process, where we try and decide whether we think a team will get better or worse from last year’s record. Then, at the end of the year, we see who did a better job of predicting. It’s interesting to see just how different the seasons of some teams turn out, in retrospect. Check out our past previews to see what I’m talking about. Doogan took our first one in 2008, 17-15, but Bry responded with a come-from-behind 17-15 win in the 2009 version. In 2010, Doogan won by the familiar 17-15 score and followed that up in 2011, with a dominating 19-13 victory to become the first back-to-back winner of the NFL preview. Having not won since 2009, Bry came back with a vengeance in 2012, winning 21-11.  However, Doogan took the title right back in 2013 with a pretty easy 18-14 win (post reposted just below this one updated with last year’s results).  This is now the seventh NFL preview we’ve done (which is HARD to believe) with Doogan holding a 4-2 all-time lead.  Bry needs this one and, fortunately for him, will get the #1 pick to try and do it.

1). BRY – Houston Texans – OVER 2 wins: It seems general practice in these things that the #1 pick is almost always the Over on one of the worst teams in the NFL the previous year.  I will not buck that trend, as there seems no way that the Texans can’t pick up 3 freaking wins.  I mean they have 5 games on their schedule that are against either the Jags, the Titans, or the Raiders.  Even if they go 2-3 in those 5, they only need to find one more win in the other 11 games.  With the addition of JaDaveon Clowney and the subtraction of Matt Schaub, this team HAS to be better than 2-14.

2). DOOGAN – Washington Redskins – OVER 3 wins: I’ll stay right there with you on a the bottom-feeders.  The defense looks like it will suck again, but there’s definitely reason to think the offense will be improved.  Our old friend D-Jax is a massive upgrade over the receivers they had opposite Pierre Garcon last year.  It’s a nice collection of weapons on offense, and a new coaching regime should be able to improve on what they produced last year.  I know there’s some hand-wringing going on over RGIII but he’ll probably be fine.

3). DOOGAN – Atlanta Falcons- OVER 4 wins: I don’t think I’m as bullish on the Falcons as many (I don’t think they’re a playoff team), but there’s no reason to think they aren’t better than a 4-win team.  They had injuries all over their offense last season, and with Julio Jones and Roddy White healthy, and with some new additions to the O-Line, they should be back to where they were in 2012, which means about 70 more points scored over the course of the season.  But the underrated story was the decline of their defense last year.  They’ve made some veteran additions there, but I’m not sure they’re good enough to turn it around.  They’ll hover around .500.

4). BRY – Carolina Panthers – UNDER 12 wins: Well, you took my next two picks.  Is it a bad sign that I already think this is getting tough?  I’m usually bullish on the Panthers, but not this year.  Their receiving corps is dreadful, unless you think the rookie Kelvin Benjamin can have a big year (and, if you know anything about rookie WRs, you don’t think that).  And, Cam is starting the season banged up.  Throw in the fact that every other team in this division looks markedly improved and you’ve got too much against this team for a really good defense to carry them anywhere near 12 wins again this year.  I think they’ll be lucky to hit 9 or 10, but more likely in the 7 or 8 area.

5).  DOOGAN – Kansas City Chiefs – UNDER 11 wins: There were five that stood out to me as “easy” calls, this being the 5th.  We’ll see how many actually turn out to be that easy.  This is a situation where the Chiefs were obviously not as good as the 11 wins indicates.  Not only did they finish the regular season 2-5 after the 9-0 start, but of all those 11 wins they beat exactly one playoff team (the Eagles way back in Week 3).  They won’t get the favors from the schedule this year, especially matching up with the NFC West.  That’s bad news for the offense, who lost a couple offensive line starters and versatile playmaker Dexter McCluster and replaced them with…basically nothing.  A strong (if maybe overrated) defense and a very pedestrian offense against a tough schedule.  They’ll be under .500.

6). BRY – Green Bay Packers – OVER 8 wins: There are few organizations in sports (and maybe none in the NFL) as well-run as the Green Bay Packers.  They have the history coupled with constant relevance.  They have a rabid fanbase that is pure, loyal, and local.  And, most importantly, they have – in my opinion – the single best football player on the planet.  They missed that player for 9 games last year and still won the division.  I’m not sold on the Lions or Bears and the Vikings are most likely not going to play a role in the division race, so I don’t see much chance that this division is not won by the guys from Green Bay.  Put me down for 10 or 11 wins, a division title, and quite possibly a surprise trip to the Super Bowl.

7). DOOGAN – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OVER 4 wins: Felt a lot better about this one when I remembered the massive upgrade they made at head coach, going from Greg Schiano to Lovie Smith.  Smith is a proven defensive coach, so I’m not too worried about the loss of Darrelle Revis.  On offense, Josh McCown takes over at QB after playing really well in place of Jay Cutler in Chicago last year.  Granted, McCown won’t have the weapons he had with the Bears, but the cupboard isn’t bare with Vincent Jackson and 1st-Round pick Mike Evans in the receiving corps.  They also made some solid improvements on the O-line with two free agent additions and the big trade yesterday that netted them All-Pro guard Logan Mankins from New England.  They can definitely get to 8 wins.

8). BRY – Cleveland Browns – OVER 4 wins: I think this is the third straight year that I have taken the Browns and the Over.  And, this will probably be the third straight year that I get it wrong.  You know how hard it is to get worse in the NFL 3 straight years?  Well, this year I’m taking them not because of Johnny f’ing Football (that guy sucks), but because I think they might have a Top 5 defense.  Yes, top 5.  They did lose the underrated D’Qwell Jackson, but that might be a bigger deal for the Jackson Greys than the Cleveland Browns.  Joe Haden is an ELITE corner.  Justin Gilbert – their first-round pick – could walk right in and be adequate on the other side.  Barkavious Mingo is in his second year and a possible stud in the making.  And, they added some attitude with Donte Hitner (formerly Whitner, but officially changed his legal name because he “hits” so hard).  And, I think with what they lack in offensive weapons, they can negate some of that with their elite offensive line, including Joe Thomas – maybe the best O-lineman in football.  I’ll be realistic and only ask for 6 wins, but that’s more than 4.

9). DOOGAN – San Francisco 49ers – UNDER 12 wins: Not my usual move to go Under this early on a really good team, but I see red flags all over the place with this team.  First, the more concrete problems.  Three of their four starters in the secondary have left in free agency and the replacements are a mix of unproven and past their prime (Antoine Bethea).  At linebacker, Aldon Smith is a disaster off the field and we’ll see if he even plays the 11 games he did last year.  All-Pro freak Navorro Bowman (PSU alum, I must add) is out for at least half the year and will not be 100% when he does come back after blowing out his knee.  So, all of a sudden, this great defense has some real concerns.  I don’t like the Kaepernick off-the-field distractions.  Not good from your quarterback.  And, finally, there’s been so many rumors about Harbaugh wanting out and trying to get to a new team.  Who knows, but where there’s smoke there’s fire and it’s a distraction and also maybe says something about how Harbaugh views this team moving forward.  OK, that’s my long-winded way of saying the Niners are dropping from 12 wins to 10 this year.

10). BRY – Cincinnati Bengals – UNDER 11 wins: Doogan, I think you’ve literally taken my next pick every single time.  But, anyway, let’s continue my recent trend of duplicating wrong picks I made last year.  I took the Bengals Under-10 last year, and they won 11.  So, I’m doubling-down here this year.  They might still win this division (though, I would definitely take the field), but I think that Mike Zimmer made more of a difference than people may realize on the defensive side.  I think that they take a slight step back defensively and nothing forward offensively.  Plus, 11 is a pretty big number in a relatively tough division.  10, tops, for this Bengals team.

11). DOOGAN – Denver Broncos – UNDER 13 wins: I don’t feel great about this at all, and they burned me last year, but I’ll go for it again.  Peyton threw a ridiculous 55 touchdowns last year.  Can the offense keep up that sort of production?  Every historical precedent says no.  Peyton’s a year older, Eric Decker is gone, Welker already has another concussion this year, there are legit questions with the running backs.  I know, Manning is not like other mere mortals and even at 38 he can probably take guys like Emmanuel Sanders and Monte Ball and make them stars.  But the schedule will get tougher this year as they matchup with the NFC West.  Logic says they’ll step back to 11-5.

12). BRY – Arizona Cardinals – UNDER 10 wins: I really don’t know what to think about the Cardinals.  Their defense seems terrific, but they lost Daryl Washington for the season due to a drug suspension, and I think they may have overachieved a little bit last year.  But, even if they’re the ’85 Bears or ’91 Eagles, they play in the best division in football with Carson Palmer at QB.  10 seems like an awfully big number to me.

13). DOOGAN – Detroit Lions – OVER 7 wins: They have a basically league-average defense in Detroit with just about all the same guys back from last year.  A great front led by Suh and Ziggy Ansah, with some shaky secondary play.  On offense, you think of them as really good but they somehow ranked just 13th in the league in points last year.  Put those things together and 7 wins makes sense.  I’ll bet on the offense improving.  I’m not totally sold on Stafford and maybe he’s the problem, but they have the best receiver in the league, two nice running backs, and they’ve added solid Golden Tate opposite Megatron and 10th overall pick Eric Ebron at tight end.  They look more like a 9-10 win team.

14). BRY – Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 13 wins: The defending Super Bowl champs look fantastic in the preseason and are the odds-on favorites to win again this year.  And, I think that if you gave me the same odds on every team to win the Super Bowl, I would probably take Seattle.  But, winning the Super Bowl and winning 13 regular season games are two very different things.  13 is just a huge number.  And, the past decade or so hasn’t been too kind to teams coming off Super Bowl appearances.  I think they still win the NFC West rather handily and probably even homefield advantage.  But, I think there’s a better chance of 12-4 or worse than another 13-3 season.

15). DOOGAN – Indianapolis Colts – UNDER 11 wins: The Colts have two big things going for them:  Andrew Luck and playing in a really weak division.  But what else do they really have?  They made no significant improvements to their roster in the offseason, apparently operating under the assumption that their young core will just get better and they already won 11 games, so why worry?  That’s just not really how it works in the NFL.  Especially when you have Reggie Wayne trying to come back from a blown knee at age 35 and Robert Mathis coming off a monster season, but one in which he was suspended late for performance-enhancing drugs.  Throw in the fact that Houston figures to be much better as a divisonal foe, and it’s easy to see these guys dropping to 9-7.

16). BRY – Minnesota Vikings – OVER 5 wins: I don’t think the Vikes are all that good, and I don’t think they’re a playoff team.  But, I do think that they have a relatively workable schedule, one of the best players of our generation, and a pretty low bar of 5 wins.  Plus, we don’t know how much this new outdoors Minneapolis homefield is going to treat them in November and December.  The Vikes won’t be all that relevant, but I think 5 wins is probably the low-end of their possibilities.  Put me down for a 6-10 or 7-9 Vikings team.

17). DOOGAN – New York Jets – UNDER 8 wins: There’s some talk around the Jets this season that goes something like:  Hey, Geno Smith looked good in the preseason.  And he has Chris Johnson and Eric Decker as new weapons to use.  And the defense is always good.  So…they should be pretty good, right?  Admittedly, not a ton of people are buying into that talk, and I’m not one of them.  I’ll believe it when I see it with this offense, and the defense was actually NOT all that good last year (19th in points allowed), and they’ve made no improvements to that side of the ball.  I’ve never been a big Rex Ryan believer, and I think this is his final go-round at the Meadowlands.

18). BRY – Pittsburgh Steelers – OVER 8 wins: If you’ve focused predominantly on the Eagles this preseason, then (a) I don’t blame you, they look great and (b) you might have a warped sense of who the Steelers are this year.  They looked really bad in the all-important 3rd preseason game against the Eagles.  So bad, in fact, that they kept their first teams out there well into the second half against all the Eagles #2s – and still couldn’t get anything done.  But, I think that that game was an anomaly, and I actually might declare the Steelers as my pick to win what should be a pretty intense 3-team race in the AFC North.  I think Roethlisberger is an underappreciated star (and world-class human being, obviously), and the team looked really good down the stretch last year.  They lost Emmanuel Sanders to Denver, but he wasn’t that important.  And, the under-the-radar aspect of their 8-8 2013 season is that they had NO running game.  But, this year Laveon Bell could make the leap, and they added a nice complement in LaGarrette Blount (all blunt jokes aside).  And, maybe the biggest upgrade should be on a defense that started to look old last year, but added some key pieces, including first-round pick, Ryan Shazier, who, by all accounts looks like a star from the jump.  And, they have the best d-coordinator to ever live still running that side of the ball.  I think they win the division, which means at least 9 wins.

19).  DOOGAN – Dallas Cowboys – UNDER 8 wins: Can Dallas go 8-8 for the fourth straight year?  Fortunately, I don’t think so.  I can’t deny that they have a decent enough offense, even if Romo is the biggest choke artist in sports at the moment.  But this defense might be worst in football, and that’s just not gonna get you a winning record.  I used to really hate Jerry Jones, but I’ve come around on him.  In fact, I hope he keeps owning (and making football decisions for) the Cowboys for a long, long time.

20). BRY – Jacksonville Jaguars – OVER 4 wins: This is not a good team…at all.  But, 5 wins are not that many in a league of parity.  And, they looked pretty solid at the end of the year last season – when they actually had legitimate NFL quarterback play.  This year they will start with the serviceable Chad Henne and probably enter the incredibly promising rookie, Blake Bortles (who has been excellent in the preseason).  I also think that – gasp – Toby Gerhart might actually be an upgrade to the aging MJD.  The defense is still a work in progress, but coming along – particularly on the defensive line, where they have a stable of excellent “big uglies” to rotate in.  Put me down for 6 wins down in Jacksonville this year.  Fortunately, one of them will NOT be Week One.

21).  DOOGAN – New England Patriots – UNDER 12 wins: Damn you, Bry.  I really tried not to end up betting against the Pats.  I looked hard at every other team still on the board here, but I just couldn’t leave this big number out there anymore.  You waited me out on this one.  It’s Belichick.  It’s Brady.  There’s no reason to think they can’t win 12 games.  But most of the numbers left on the board are just so hard to call one way or the other.

22). BRY – St. Louis Rams – UNDER 7 wins: Yep, I waited just long enough (I had them next up, too).  Instead, I’ll bet on double-digit losses from the worst team in a division before they lost their starting QB for the season.  Granted, Sam Bradford isn’t exactly an extreme difference-maker, but he is better than Shaun Hill, and the margin for error for this Rams team isn’t much in this division.  Their defense is terrific, but I still see 6-10 for this team.

23).  DOOGAN – Baltimore Ravens – OVER 8 wins: This division is very hard to predict, and it won’t be at all surprising if only one team ends up above .500.  If we’re just looking at franchise pedigree, it’s fair to bet against the Bengals being that team for the second straight year.  That leaves us with the Ravens and Steelers.  Bry has already hitched his wagon in this division with the Steel.  I’ll go with the Ravens to recover (somewhat) from their Super Bowl hangover of a year ago and scrap their way back atop the AFC North.

24). BRY – Chicago Bears – OVER 8 wins: I already have the Overs on the Packers and Vikings, and Doogan has the Over on the Lions, so I guess it’s fair to say that we think the NFC North will be vastly improved.  I do not like this defense all that much, as the worst defense in Bears history lost Julius Peppers.  But, the offense could be sensational.  The weapons around a healthy Jay Cutler are tremendous with top-5 RB Matt Forte and two elite wideouts in Marshall and Jeffrey.  Throw in a solid (but lazy) TE in Martellus Bennett and a lottery card in Santonio Holmes, and I think this offense could be one of the best in football.  Does that mean a division title or a dozen wins?  Probably not.  But, I could see 9+ as more likely than .500 or below.

25). DOOGAN – Miami Dolphins – OVER 8 wins: Part of my plan for this pick (and my Pats Under pick) is to have the Dolphins knock off the Pats at home this Sunday.  There’s obviously an opening for somebody to be the second-best team in this division, and while there’s obviously no guarantee that that second place team will have a winning record, I’ll say Miami pulls it off.  A pretty decent defense combined with a young quarterback who now has two full years of starting experience, minus the circus sideshow of whatever happened with that Martin/Incognito thing last year.  A lot of easy wins on the slate (Bills and Jets twice, Raiders, Jags, Vikings).  9-7 season for the Fins.

26). BRY – Oakland Raiders – OVER 4 wins: This is probably the worst team in football, and they were not made any better in the short-term when they named rookie 2nd-round pick Derrick Carr as the starter Week One against the Jets.  They are an old, cap-strapped team that doesn’t have any talent or any real hope for the future.  BUT…the NFL is a league with a very strong pull towards mediocrity, so I will just pray that this team somehow scrapes out 5 wins in the process of being the worst team – on paper – in the league.

27). DOOGAN – Philadelphia Eagles – UNDER 10 wins: We’ve reached the point where if you asked me to throw out my best guess for how many games any of the teams left will win, I’m pretty sure I would say the exact number that they won last year.  I wouldn’t say I’m “down” on the Birds (like I was last year), because I think they’ll win 10 games and the division and be a tough out in January.  BUT, I look at this schedule, and I just think 9 wins is more likely than 11.  You can talk about the division being easy, but NFC East games are usually pretty tough, and there may be no total pushovers in the bunch.  Throw in four games against the NFC West and road games at Green Bay and Indy, and you can find a lot of losses out there if you’re looking for them.  I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the defense makes a big improvement, but I don’t have a ton of reason to think that’s coming.

28). San Diego Chargers – OVER 9 wins: I got talked into this one by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders.  Apparently, the arrows are all pointing in the right direction for the Chargers and he said “It wouldn’t shock me if they were 13-3.”  Huh?!?!?!?  But, I will take his word for it because I agree with Doogan in that every pick left of the board looks like it will hit the number.  But, the Chiefs are falling back and the Raiders stink, so the Chargers are clearly the 2nd-best team in the division.  Yes, they get the NFC West, but this is a relatively young team with a potential star coach in Mike McCoy (who should have been coach of the year last year, in my opinion), so I guess I’ll take the Chargers for double-digit wins…cringe.  PS…Doogan, I would have gone OVER on the Birds, so thanks for keeping the site relatively objective.

29). DOOGAN – New Orleans Saints – UNDER 11 wins: Starting in ’09 and skipping the season where Sean Payton was suspended and everything went crazy for them, the Saints win totals have gone 13, 11, 13, 11.  So, does that mean they’re headed for 13 wins this year?  Very possibly!  Are those numbers a good reason to go Under here on 11?  No!  But whatever, when you think the number is right it makes sense to go below on a big number.  Can the Saints defense match the solid year they had last year?  Maybe, but they were the worst defense in the league two years ago, so we’ll see.

30). BRY – Tennessee Titans – OVER 7 wins: We’re just throwing darts here, right?  I like Jake Locker (and, I might be the only one…), and I think the AFC South is the worst division in football.  4 games with Jacksonville and Houston will help, and I don’t think Indy is unbeatable.  Plus, they get to play the second-worst division in the league, the NFC East, as well.  I think 8 wins is more likely than 6 wins, so I’ll take the Over on 7.

31). DOOGAN – New York Giants – UNDER 7 wins: I actually feel pretty good about my last pick here, and not just because of Under on the G-Men.  It would be hard to argue that this team is really any good, so Under on a mid-range number seems pretty clear.  The O-Line was a disaster last year and they’ve brought in new people, but that doesn’t mean it’s fixed.  They have nobody at running back and a rookie starting at wide-out opposite Victor Cruz.  I don’t see a mid-30’s Eli being able to do much with this group around him.  They lost Linval Joseph and a still-decent Justin Tuck from a defense that was already pretty poor.  Probably the farewell tour for Tom Coughlin at the Meadowlands.

32). BRY – Buffalo Bills – UNDER 6 wins: Yeah, I have been weighing the Giants Under for about 10 picks now, but just couldn’t do it because I feel like I make that pick every year, and every year I look like a Giants hater (which is totally true).  But, as I am stuck here with the last pick, I would love to call a push here, as 6-10 sounds exactly right.  But, honestly, for a 32nd pick, this isn’t terrible because there is no way this team wins 7+, so I just have to dodge 6-10 to get a point here, which is probably a coin flip.  E.J. Manual stinks – as evidenced by their signing of Kyle Orton out of retirement.  But, the defense is probably good enough to make me sweat this out.

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BSB’s 2013 NFL Preview

For those of you unfamiliar with the preview, instead of the typical, been-done-again-and-again season previews, we like to make a game out of our previews, along with being informative. What we do is kind of a draft process, where we try and decide whether we think a team will get better or worse from last year’s record. Then, at the end of the year, we see who did a better job of predicting. It’s interesting to see just how different the seasons of some teams turn out, in retrospect. Check out our past previews to see what I’m talking about. Doogan took our first one in 2008, 17-15, but Bry responded with a come-from-behind 17-15 win in the 2009 version. In 2010, Doogan won by the familiar 17-15 score and followed that up in 2012, with a dominating 19-13 victory to become the first back-to-back winner of the NFL preview. Having not won since 2009, Bry came back with a vengeance, taking last year’s contest, 21-11. Doogan will try to rebound here in 2013, as he gets the first pick this year.

1) DOOGAN – Kansas City Chiefs – OVER 2 wins: Big Red lives! Everyone’s acting like Alex Smith is a Hall of Fame quarterback just because he’s replacing guys that were a disaster. I’m not sure he’ll be all that good but, despite what we saw in Philly a year ago, Andy knows how to coach an offense. And the defense is fairly loaded, led by one of my favorite non-Eagles in the league, Tamba Hali. Some are saying they could go from the bottom of the league to a playoff berth. Let’s just call it 6-10, though.

Doogan takes an easy point here, as the Coach Reid coaches ‘em up to 11 wins and a playoff berth.  Doogan even undershot this first pick.

2). BRY – Philadelphia Eagles – OVER 4 wins: It is not interesting to most that I would take the home team here because I always seem overly bullish on the Eagles. But, it is interesting to me because I seem like a bit of a wet blanket when talking about the Birds this year. I think they are still a ways away from serious contention (though, this division is just bad enough to change our definition of “contention”). That being said, I think that this team had WAY more than 4-win talent last year, and I think they have WAY more than 4-win talent this year. They may even have a playoff-caliber offense. The defense is quite suspect, but the schedule is really soft. Put me down for 6 or 7 wins for the Birds with the needle firmly pointed upwards.

Bry also picks up an easy point with his first pick – undershooting this one, as well.  The one and only Coach Kelly turned a 4-win team into a division champ.  Fly, Eagles, Fly!

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