The beginning of April gives us one of best sports “transitions” of the calendar year. With the promise of spring comes a sharp switch in our overall mentalities from the squeeking of sneakers on the hardwood to the cracking of bats on the diamond. BSB feels this transition as much as anything, as we have always focused most of our attention on 3 sports – college hoops, baseball, and football. So, with the college hoops championship game occuring usually within days of MLB’s opening day, we usually take an about-face on the site and switch over to the sights and sounds of our national pastime. And, no better way to make that transition than to kick off our 2012 MLB Preview.

As followers of the site know, we do season previews in a much different way than anyone else out there. We like to do team-by-team previews, but spice them up by adding in a touch of strategic competition. What we do is to take each team’s win totals from a year ago and set them as the “over-unders” for their win totals this year. Then, we make these over-under picks in draft order, depending on how confident we are in the team either going over or under their total from last year. Then, at the end of the year, we add them up and see how we did. Bry won the first three times we ran this preview (by narrow margins in the first two, 2008 and 2009, and then a wider margin in 2010), and then Doogan got on the board last year, winning the 2011 Preview in a tiebreaker, so he has the momentum.

We will add our picks to this post periodically throughout the week leading up to opening day.

Having picked first last year, Bry defers to Doogan to take the #1 choice this year…

1. DOOGAN – Miami Marlins – OVER 72 wins: Teams always like to make a splash (no pun intended here?) with their first year in a new ballpark, but the Marlins seem to have taken that to a new level going into 2012. Not only have they totally changed their uniforms, changed the name of the team, and brought in a new manager, but they’ve also remade the roster with three high-priced free agents. Jose Reyes takes over at short, Mark Buehrle joins the rotation, and Heath Bell takes over as the closer. Those three veterans join an already talented group of youngsters led by Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton (now, amazingly, known as Giancarlo Stanton), Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez. If they stay healthy, they should definitely push for a playoff spot.

2. BRY – Houston Astros – OVER 56 wins: Is it me or do the “gimmes” get fewer and fewer every year we do this? You would think that with 29 teams to choose from, I would feel more confident than this pick. But, there is an old adage in baseball – you’re going to win 60 games and lose 60 games, and everything is decided in the other 40. Well, I guess I’ll stick with that adage and assume that even if this terrible team loses all 40 of them, they will still hit the Over here for me. Then again – I bet on them to win their division last year and they lost 106.

3. BRY – Milwaukee Brewers – UNDER 96 wins: With Prince Fielder gone, Ryan Braun’s appeal of his 50-game suspension may end up being the biggest victory of the Brewers 2012 season. It’s hard to imagine them competing without 210 games of Fielder and Braun. As it is, they still lost 162 games of Fielder, so this team should take a step backwards. Now, honestly, I don’t think they are that much worse, though, I just don’t think anyone in this division will win 96 games. They Brewers still have a pretty solid rotation and their defense should be a lot better – particularly on the left side – as they went from Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGahee to Alex Gonzalez and Aramis Ramirez. That is about as big of a defensive upgrade as I can remember one team making on the left side of an infield. Also, if Ramirez can regain some of his offensive prowess, his bat could help defray some of the loss felt in the middle of the order by Fielder’s departure. In short, I may be in the minority, but I still feel like this is the team to beat in the NL Central, so it’s strange to pick the Under with the #3 pick – I just think 96 wins is way too many.

4. DOOGAN – Minnesota Twins – OVER 63 wins: A couple of standard BSB MLB preview strategies go into this pick.  Mainly, 63 is a low number.  This pick shouldn’t be taken as a vote of confidence in this Twins team.  But also, there are some teams that you just tend to go over on, based on the history of the franchise, and the Twins are one of those teams.  One horrible season won’t change that.  Here’s hoping that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can stay healthy to power the middle of the line-up.  The rotation has no ace, but it is fairly deep, with a good number of solid guys like Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, and Scott Baker.  In a pretty middling division, they should be able to hit 70 wins.

5. BRY – New York Mess – UNDER 77 wins: This team is not very good at all.  And, since they can’t spend any money, they have to fill holes as cheaply as possible.  And, they created two pretty big holes up the middle when they traded away Carlos Beltran and let Jose Reyes walk in free agency (two moves that I actually agree with in the long-term, but we’re not “previewing” the long-term).  The hole at short is going to be filled with fringe prospect Ruben Tejada, while the hole in center is filled with a guy that didn’t hit enough to stay in the anemic Giants offense – Andres Torres (who will bring his .221 batting average to the Mets leadoff spot this year).  Oh, and not that they will have all that many “save opportunities,” but it looks like their cheap replacement closer, Frankie Francisco, might be having shoulder issues.  The one thing that gives me a little pause is that Johan Santana looks like he might actually be healthy, so they could have a horse at the top of the rotation.  But, with this offense, how many wins does Johan – even at his peak give you – 15?  How will this offense win 65 games with Dillon Gee, R.A. Dickey, and Mike Pelfrey on the mound?  In the NL East?  They won’t.

6. DOOGAN – Philadelphia Phillies – UNDER 102 wins: Let’s take the suspense out of this one early.  I’ve been a believer in the Phils and the Over every year we’ve done this, but 102??  Amidst all that has gone wrong for the team this spring, it’s important to remember that they still run out the best 1-3 pitchers in the game, by a LONG shot.  Still, a team that struggled to score runs at a lot of times over the last couple of years will continue to struggle a lot of the time.  Jimmy Rollins looks like the Opening Day 3-hitter, with Ty Wigginton at first base and batting 5th or 6th.  I have so much faith in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels though, that this still looks like the cream of the crop in the NL, if not the whole game.

7. BRY – New York Yankees – UNDER 97 wins: Can’t really blame you for taking the Under on the Phils – hell, I did it last year at 98.  And, right after you take the Under on the best team in the NL, I’ll take the Under on, quite possibly, the best team in the AL.  I like what the Yankees have done with their rotation, but the offense continues to age, and the “ageless one” at the end of the bullpen just has to show signs of mortality at some point, right?  Even so, I still think this is probably as good a team as there is in the Junior Circuit, but 97 is a big number, and this division is loaded.  I think the 1927 Yankees might have trouble hitting this number, and the 2012 Yankees are not exactly their counterparts from 85 years ago.

8. DOOGAN – Los Angeles Angels – OVER 86 wins: Just looks like a really good team, on paper.  Obviously, Albert Pujols thrown into the middle of the order doesn’t hurt, though the offense still looks suspect with the over-the-hill Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells penciled in as starters and Kendrys Morales trying to comeback after missing most of the past two years with injuries.  What makes this team a definite contender is the rotation, where C.J. Wilson joins Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana.  With Mike Scioscia pulling the strings and most likely some money to burn if they need to make additions in July, they should get 90-92 wins.

9. BRY - Arizona Diamondbacks – UNDER 94 wins: When looking for a team that you think will take a step backwards, you would think that one would probably look for either (a) an aging team likely in decline or (b) a team that has lost a couple key pieces either through free agency/trade or injury.  The Diamondbacks don’t even come close to fitting into either category, as they are a young team that is pretty much completely in tact from the team that won 94 games a year ago.  So, this might be a dangerous pick, but I just do not see this team in the mid-90s.  I think last year everything kind of fell right into place – they won a lot of close games, got seemingly career years from several pitchers (most notably Yankee castoff, Ian Kennedy; fringe bullpen prospect turned starter, Josh Collmenter; and resurrected closer, J.J. Putz), and benefitted from a surprisingly down year throughout the division.  So, even though this team comes back as a whole and a year older (which is a good thing), I still don’t see them matching last year’s success.

10. DOOGAN – Texas Rangers – UNDER 96 wins: A big win number and a lot of question marks makes for a fairly easy Under pick.  Sure, there’s a TON of talent on this roster, but they’re really counting on Yu Darvish and Neftali Feliz to be high-quality starters, and both of those are definite question marks, mainly because neither has ever actually started a Major League game yet.  They’ll score runs, but Josh Hamilton gets hurt a lot and is already slowed by injuries this spring.  When does Michael Young start to show his age with the bat?  Just too many questions to expect so many wins.

11. BRY – Kansas City Royals – OVER 71 wins: Since I always end up making this pick, at some point, might as well get it over with early, then I can stop “almost” picking it.  I should just copy and paste what I’ve written for each of the past 4 years.  This team has an amazing farm system…blah, blah, blah.  They will be up in the bigs at some point…blah, blah, blah.  The division isn’t very good…blah, blah, blah.  71 isn’t a huge number…blah, blah, blah.  Ready for something new:  Eric Hosmer is a total stud and will be an MVP candidate within the next three years – maybe as early as this year.  I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid that this team is going to compete for a playoff spot, but I do think they can flirt with .500 and probably finish somewhere in the mid-70s.

12. DOOGAN – Cincinnati Reds – OVER 79 wins: No National League team has scored more runs over the last two years than the Reds, so you know they can swing the bats.  Joey Votto has established himself as one of the game’s premier hitters, and Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips produce as well.  They added Mat Latos from the Padres in the offseason, and he has a lot of ability despite not having a great 2011.  The loss of Ryan Madson gives me a little pause here, but this team was better than their 79 wins suggest last year, and with the Cardinals and Brewers most likely taking steps backward, they should be ready to step it up themselves into, let’s say an 86-win season.

13. BRY – Oakland A’s – UNDER 74 wins: Last year’s A’s were not that competitive, but they at least had a somewhat decent pitching staff.  This year’s A’s?  Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon are their #1 and #2.  Trevor Cahill is gone.  Gio Gonzalez is gone.  Even Dallas Braden might miss the whole season with shoulder issues.  And, this is a team with Kurt Suzuki hitting in the middle of the lineup.  There is a chance that this is the worst team in baseball, so I’ll take them for 70 wins at the most.

14. DOOGAN – St. Louis Cardinals – UNDER 90 wins: This feels like a pick I often make and lose on, so like Bry and the Royals, I’ll keep the momentum going.  Pujols is obviously a huge loss, but this team led the NL in runs scored by a healthy margin last year, so they’ll still score runs, especially with Carlos Beltran joining Matt Holliday (though Lance Berkman could be headed for a downturn).  The main reason I’m somewhat comfortable going Under is that Chris Carpenter is down for the first couple of months of the season and Kyle Lohse is making their Opening Night start tomorrow.

15. BRY – San Francisco Giants – OVER 86 wins: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, and Zito.  Oh, and arguably the best bullpen in the game.  And, while Brandon Crawford may not be ready for the bigs with the stick, he sure can field the shortstop position.  And, coming off of a year of Miguel Tejada there, they upgraded the most important defensive position about as much as is actually possible.  They’re not going to score many runs, but their pitching and defense is as good as anyone.  In a potentially weak NL West, this team seems poised for 90 wins.

16. DOOGAN – Colorado Rockies – OVER 73 wins: I don’t like taking Overs on teams with pitching staffs as suspect as this team’s, but the offense could be scary good with Tulowitzki and CarGo, Helton still swinging it, and two proven veterans joining them in Michael Cuddyer and Marco Scutaro.  I’d worry about Cuddyer playing the outfield in Coors, but other than that they have + defenders all over the diamond, which will be needed with the pitchers allowing the ball to be hit all over the place most of the time.  I don’t see them winning half their games, but 78 wins seems reachable.

17. BRY – Toronto Blue Jays – OVER 81 wins: It embarrasses me sometimes how easily I buy into the hype machine.  With the state of the AL East, there is no reason to believe that the Jays can be over .500 this year, but I can’t ignore the hype.  And, no, I don’t put any stock whatsoever in spring training records, so I am not even going to mention the fact that they are 19-4 this spring.  I won’t even mention it.  But, there is just too much talent across the border to ignore.  Ricky Romero is poised to be a certifiable ace.  Jose Bautista has been the best player in baseball (by a pretty wide margin) over the past two seasons.  And, Colby Rasmus, J.P. Arencebia, and especially Brett Lawrie are all poised for breakout seasons.  If Kyle Drabek can find the strike zone, he could join Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, and Dustin McGowan in a solid, if not stellar, starting rotation.  Oh, and I love the fact that they brought back their old unis and logo.  This is dangerous territory, I know, but gimme the Jays for 83-86 wins.

18. DOOGAN – San Diego Padres – OVER 71 wins: This is one of those picks where it’s getting late in the game here but I’ve suddenly talked myself into this one as very safe pick.  It’s a low number for a team with a capable manager and a fair amount of young talent, if no stars.  They won’t score many runs, but Yonder Alonso could be a breakout hitter, and they have Carlos Quentin when he returns from injury.  They’re a good defensive team up the middle, with Jason Bartlett at short, Orlando Hudson at second, and Cameron Maybin in center.  They have some pretty solid young arms in the rotation as well, with Edinson Volquez, Cory Luebke, and Clayton Richard.

19. BRY – Detroit Tigers – UNDER 95 wins: This feels like a strange pick to make, considering they are one of the handful of legit contenders for a World Series title.  They won 95 games last year AND added one of the game’s premier power hitters in Prince Fielder.  Add in the fact that yhey are HEAD AND SHOULDERS better than the rest of this division and this pick starts to get suspect.  However…95 is a really big number, and last year’s 95 was a bit hollow.  They got a perfect season from their closer and a dream season from Justin Verlander.  Not saying that Verlander isn’t great (in fact, blasphemous or not, I would consider him on par with Mr. Halladay as the best pitcher on the planet) – I am saying, though, that that was a dream season for anyone and may not be duplicated.  But, even if it is, the addition of Prince Fielder is mitigated by the fact that he’s really just a moderate offensive upgrade to Victor Martinez, who was lost for the year.  And, one has to question their decision to make Miguel Cabrera (a below average FIRSTbaseman) into the everyday thirdbaseman.  Last year, they had Brandon Inge – one of the game’s best at the hot corner.  Add in the fact that they got the best of guys like Tim Fister, Alex Avila, and Ryan Raburn (not likely to repeat their ’11 numbers this year).  I am, in no way, saying that the Tigers are not going to contend – in fact, they might be the best bet in baseball to win the World Series because they are the biggest favorite (by a huge margin) to win their division and avoid the 1-game playoff.  But, I just see them being in the same position with 88-90 wins as they would be with 96-100.  And, I think 95 is just too tough for a team that does still have some flaws.

20. DOOGAN – Washington Nationals – OVER 80 wins: This is a classic “taking the bait” pick on a team that’s made a bunch of veteran additions to a young core, but still may be another year or two away from being legit.  The rotation has a chance to be really good, but its far from guaranteed, with Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and Jordan Zimmermann.  The line-up looks like it could be average, with Jayson Werth probably having an improved season and Bryce Harper waiting in the wings.  And they’ve also added arms to the pen.  In a lesser division, I’d feel confident with this Over, but they very well could be a 4th place team.  Still, the talent is on board for 84 wins.

21. BRY – Atlanta Braves – UNDER 89 wins: As Doogan explained in the last pick, the Nats are probably going to be better than they were a year ago.  And, with the Marlins Over going off the board at #1, it’s safe to say that this division is much improved.  And, while there is still a lot of talent on this Braves roster, the health and mental makeup of that talent is seemingly revealing a lot more questions than answers.  The two most accomplished players on the roster – Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson – are out to start the season – possibly a bad omen for players on the downside of their career arcs.  And, the rest of the pitching staff has been actually rather awful this spring.  Jair Jurrjens doesn’t look healthy, and all those “young arms” look either overrated or not ready.  And, then there are the questions surrounding this offense.  It wasn’t very good last year and, possibly, the two most important bats in the lineup – Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman – don’t exactly look like a pillar of mental fortitude.  They do still have absolute horses in the ‘pen, but Fredi Gonzalez has proven rather inept at utilizing a bullpen.  The reason I didn’t make this pick earlier is because I wouldn’t be shocked for any result from 80 all the way to 100 wins.  But, all in all, I disagree with your statement above, Doogan, and I think that this might be the 4th-place team you speak of, and, if so, they won’t even come close to 89 wins.

22. DOOGAN – Chicago White Sox – UNDER 79 wins: I’ll declare this the point of the draft where I won’t feel remotely sure about any picks from here on.  The White Sox do have a potentially above-average rotation with John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, and Philip Humber, who had a quiet nice season last year.  Though Peavy is not close to what he once was and neither Danks nor Floyd resemble an ace.  The offense struggled to score runs a year ago and can expect more of the same.  Even if Adam Dunn rebounds (which he almost has to do), Carlos Quentin and his 24 homers are gone.  Kenny Williams looks like he wants to rebuild, and as arguably the most aggressive GM in the biz, he could get very aggressive with unloading veterans in a couple months.

23. BRY – Boston Red Sox – UNDER 90 wins: I have almost pulled the trigger on this one for about 10 rounds now, but I kept thinking about how much talent they have on this team.  They have 5 elite offensive players and two elite starting pitchers.  But, in a division this tough and a town this brutal, seasons can unravel quickly.  Add to the fire a spitfire manager and a bullpen that is in complete disarray, I could see this team slipping towards .500.  This isn’t an easy pick, but you can’t expect them to be easy around this time in the game.

24.  DOOGAN – Baltimore Orioles – UNDER 69 wins: A bad team, a bad organization, that’s just spinning its wheels in a beastly division.  They haven’t topped 69 wins since 2006, when they won, you guessed it, 70.  With the improved Blue Jays really only making this an even tougher division and no noteworthy additions to the roster, I don’t see why anyone should expect this year to be one where they win more than 67 games.

25. BRY – Seattle Mariners – OVER 67 wins: A bad team, a bad organization, that’s just spinning its wheels…in a division that isn’t as beastly as the AL East.  Yes, the pickins are getting slim here, but 67 is a pretty low number, especially when you get to play the A’s 19 times.  Is it that big of a stretch to think that the Mariners might not hit 95 losses?  Well…like I said, the pickens are getting slim.

26. DOOGAN – Tampa Bay Rays – UNDER 91 wins: You have to love the pitching staff, especially since their sixth-best starter would probably #3 in a lot of rotations.  Looking for chinks in the armor, I’d say that Evan Longoria is the only sure-thing hitter in the lineup, with some other guys that go up-and-down or haven’t lived up to expectations yet.  The bullpen has guys that were great last year but not guys that have long track records, so that could be a place where they take a step back, as well.

27. BRY – Cleveland Indians – OVER 80 wins: Okay, we’ve officially reached the “I have no idea range,” so this is more of a shot in the dark than anything.  It’s probably a bad pick, considering the Tribe didn’t exactly add anyone from a team that probably overachieved last year, but this division stinks and there is some room for improvement from a year ago.  You have to expect Shin-Soo Choo to rebound from a terrible year to be more like his career before the DUI.  And, they did play most of the season without their best player – Carlos Santana – who is now healthy and could be a superstar.  Plus, Justin Masterson has a chance to be a true ace – and by “true ace,” I really mean “reliable starting pitcher.”  So, I guess I’ll take them to finish .500 or better, why not?

28. DOOGAN – Los Angeles Dodgers – OVER 82 wins: They have at least an average rotation, with reigning Cy Young winner Kershaw backed up by solid arms like Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley.  The line-up is a bit of a mess, but Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are a 3-4 combo that a lot of teams out there would take in heartbeat.  The bullpen doesn’t look too formidable, but I’ll take the positive vibes they’re feeling from the end of the McCourt fiasco and say they can ride their two young super-stars to 83-85 wins.

29. BRY – Chicago Cubs – OVER 71 wins: So, left with two teams from the NL Central with O/Us of 72 and 71.  Hmm…  I’ll go with the Cubbies and the Over because 71 is a pretty low number for a team with such a high payroll and a really good General Manager. Granted, they do have an extreme dearth of talent, so Theo’s got his work cut out for him.  Not surprisingly, considering it’s the 29th pick, but this seems like a total toss-up to me.  So, I guess I’ll take the Cubs to avoid 91+ losses…I guess.  Have fun with the last one, Doogan…

30. DOOGAN – Pittsburgh Pirates – OVER 72 wins: Well, they just wrapped up a series win over the Phils, so if I went Under it would probably just look spiteful.  I don’t want to be spiteful.  Good job this weekend, Buccos.  You can surely win 71 more games in 2012.

(UPDATE:  BSB is about to begin the 2012 MLB Preview, so we figured it would be a good time to look back at the 2011 Preview in anticipation.  The individual previews were posted on 3/28.  The updates (underlined) were made after the regular season ended.)

With the end of a fantastic college basketball season this year imminent, it is time for Broad Street Believers to officially turn most of its attention squarely on the 2011 MLB season.  And, to kick off what might be a prolific season of baseball coverage, we will run our annual tradition of previewing the MLB season in a unique way you won’t find anywhere else.  We, here at BSB, like to have a little fun with everything and turn as many things as we can into competitions.  And, we found a way to preview various seasons in a competitive manner.  Over the next couple of days, Doogan and I will be “analyzing” all 30 Major League teams by trying to predict who is going to get better, who is going to get worse, and how confident we are in those assessments.  This is the fourth year we have done this for baseball, and Bry has actually won all three – the first two very narrowly, and then last year’s by an 18-12 score.  (You can check out last year’s final recap here.)  So, if you are interested in our picks, check back as we will conduct this “draft” live, with updates, well, whenever we do them until we have picked all 30 teams.  Doogan picked first last year, so Bry will kick off 2011 with the #1 draft pick…

FINAL RESULTS: show final record, winner of the pick.

1. BRY – Seattle Mariners – OVER 61 wins:
Doogan, judging by the trouble I had with #1, this year might be the most difficult yet.  Usually, there are at least 2 or 3 that are obvious right off the bat, but I am not 100% confident with my very first pick.  That being said, I cannot imagine how the Mariners will be worse than they were last year.  They do have talent and the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, who is only getting better.  I don’t think they are anywhere near contenders, but they will not lose 100 games again.  Your move…

FINAL: 67-95
BRY leads 1-0
The M’s didn’t have a good year, by any stretch, but they did manage to avoid another 100-loss season and get Bry the first point.

2. DOOGAN – San Diego Padres – UNDER 90 wins:
Well, let’s see, nobody could figure out how the Padres won 90 games last year, and they traded away their only legitimate offensive threat, Adrian Gonzalez, in the offseason.  They also lost Jon Garland, who gave them a very solid season.  They could very easily lose 90 games this time around.

FINAL: 71-91
DOOGAN ties it up 1-1
Bry’s first pick was a bit of a sweat, but Doogan’s was drama-free, as the Pads were 19 games worse in 2011 than 2010.

3. DOOGAN – Milwaukee Brewers – OVER 77 wins:
Zach Greinke’s injury may give a moment’s pause here, but with him joining Yovani Gallardo, the also newly-acquired Shaun Marcum, and the still-steady Randy Wolf, the Brewers have one of the better rotations in the game.  The offense still has Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks, and Takashi Saito has joined the pen.  In a weak division, they should be able to push for 90 wins.

FINAL: 96-66
DOOGAN leads 2-1
If his first two picks are any indication, Doogan is on point here, as the Brew Crew also wins the point for him with 19 games to spare.

4. BRY – Tampa Bay Rays – UNDER 96 wins:
I strongly considered San Diego with #1, so nice pick there.  I am going to go with Tampa here because 96 wins is a lot for anyone in any division, but this team did lose, arguably, its best offensive player, and most of its bullpen, and they still play in the AL East.  All that being said, I still think this is a very, very good team that could seriously contend because of their incredible pitching, but 96 wins is just too much.

FINAL: 91-71
BRY ties it up 2-2
The Rays made the playoffs with 91 wins, but it wasn’t enough to cost Bry the point.  Still “on serve” after 4 picks.

5. DOOGAN – Oakland A’s – OVER 81 wins:
They have a very promising young rotation with Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden, and they took a flier on their former young star, Rich Harden, who has maybe one more shot to get his career back on track.  They’ve made a couple nice additions to the bullpen with Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour joining young closer Andrew Bailey.  They may still struggle to score runs, but newcomers Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus, and Josh Willingham will certainly help.  They can definitely contend in the underwhelming AL West and win 90 games.

FINAL: 74-88 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 3-2
The first “break” of the game goes to Bry, as Doogan thought the A’s would be above .500.

6. BRY – Pittsburgh Pirates – OVER 57 wins:
If I had to bet on a team to be the worst in baseball, I would absolutely bet on the Pirates.  But, I also find it really hard to believe that in a National League that is very short on great teams will give us any team that loses 105 games again.  Again, if anyone can do it, it would be the Pirates because they have been terrible for so long and haven’t really added anything to make us think they won’t, but young’ins like Andrew McCutcheon and Pedro Alvarez have to improve a little bit, right?  Maybe?

FINAL: 72-90
BRY leads 4-2
This point was probably won in July, as the Pirates improved by 15 games in 2011.

7. DOOGAN – New York Mets – UNDER 79 wins:
You definitely stole my next pick with there with the Buccos, and that’s the end of the gimmes, in my mind.  Considering the new regime in Queens and the whole Madoff situation with the owners, I really see this season being the end of an era and the Mets trading away guys like Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes in July.  I mean, by that point they’ll be, what, 20 games behind the Phils?

FINAL: 77-85
DOOGAN trails 4-3
In a point that was more dramatic than it may seem, it remains difficult to believe that the 2011 Mets won 77 games, but they did – it just wasn’t enough to cost Doogan the point.

8. BRY – New York Yankees – UNDER 95 wins:
Since we’re in the Big Apple, let’s just head over to the other Borough and pick against them too, while we’re at it.  I know that this team always wins and almost assuredly will end the season with at least one or two more major pieces than they started it with, but I really can’t find 95 wins on this roster – particularly, this pitching staff.  With Andy Pettitte retiring, the Bombers are all of a sudden counting on A.J. Burnett as their #2 starter?  That’s incredibly scary.  Maybe Phil Hughes progresses even more, but still do they win 95 games when Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova are starting 30-40% of their games?  Yes, in true Yankees fashion, they added the best closer on the market – Rafael Soriano – to be a handsomely paid setup man, but the rest of the bullpen is somewhat shaky, and there will be a time when Mariano is just too old to keep getting it done.  And, speaking of old - have you seen the left side of the infield?  All of a sudden two of the best players of my lifetime look like they’re ready to become the centerpieces of the “stories of my youth.”  I do think Robinson Cano is one of the best players in the game, but I don’t see 95 wins in the Bronx this year.

FINAL: 97-65 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 4-4
Bry’s first misstep comes at #8 with the Yanks.  They actually got 2 games better in 2011, despite injury-riddled seasons from A-Rod and Jeter and a no-show from AJ Burnett.  Curtis Granderson is probably to blame for the improvement of the Bombers this year.

9. DOOGAN – Boston Red Sox – OVER 89 wins:
Well, if the Yanks and Rays are both going under, then those AL East wins have to go somewhere, and the Sox look to be in a great position to take them.  They had a ton of injuries last year, and I see improved seasons coming from Josh Beckett and John Lackey behind Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz in the rotation.  And I haven’t even mentioned the two massive additions to the line-up, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Add in a couple bullpen reinforcements in Bobby Jenks and Dennys Reyes, and this is team is the clear favorite to win the best division in baseball.  That means 96-97 wins.

FINAL: 90-72
DOOGAN takes the lead 5-4
Most people will remember the Red Sox losing game #162 as a devastating loss, little does everyone realize that they didn’t need that 91st win.  Doogan had already hit his Over with their 90th win.  Much ado about nothing…

10. BRY – Baltimore Orioles – OVER 66 wins:
Ya, that was my next pick as well, but I’ll stay here in the AL East.  Trivia question:  If we split last year into two 81-game seasons, who would have won the AL East in that second season?  Answer:  The Baltimore Orioles.  That’s right, the Orioles had a better record than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays in the final 81 games.  Now, I am not at all implying they are contenders for the title this year, but I think they will be a lot better than the 96 losses they had last year.  They have Showalter for a full year, and I actually kind of like the additions of J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, and Vlad Guerrero.  Plus, guys like Matt Wieters and Adam Jones are a year older, and guys in the rotation like Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Jake Arrieta have another year under their belts.

FINAL: 69-93
BRY ties it up 5-5
While the O’s may not have “taken the next step” in 2011, they did improve by 3 games – which is enough to get Bry the point here at #10.

11. DOOGAN - Detroit Tigers – OVER 81 wins:
This is a slightly scary pick because there are a lot of “ifs” that need to turn out on the positive side, but there’s a lot of talent on this roster.  The most important “if”: IF Miguel Cabrera can keep himself alive and out of trouble, he should team with Victor Martinez in the middle of a solid line-up that also features young outfielders Austin Jackson, Ryan Raburn, and Brennan Boesch.  I think Rick Porcello will bounce back with a solid year, joining ace Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the front of the rotation.  And Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit will form a dependable back-end of the bullpen.

FINAL: 95-67
DOOGAN takes the lead 6-5
A stress-free point for Doogan at #11, as the Tigers were 14 games better in 2011 than the 2010 version.

12. BRY – Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 85 wins:
This might be odd to talk about the Blue Jays regressing because they seem to a team moving in the right direction, in a weird way, but I just don’t see 85 wins of talent on this roster, especially in the AL East.  They had a slew of career years offensively last year (Jose Bautista comes to mind), so even with the normal regression to the mean for these guys, you have to expect that they will not hit 250 home runs again or score close to 800 runs again.  Plus, as bad as a contract as Vernon Wells had and as great as it was for the future of the team to move him, his loss will be felt in the short-term.  I like the depth of their pitching staff, but it’s just a collection of decent #3′s.  Put me down as surprised if this team goes .500 and pretty sure they won’t hit 85 wins again.

FINAL: 81-81
BRY ties it up 6-6
A decent Blue Jays team was only good enough to go .500 in the brutal AL East, which means Bry takes the point and stays on serve.

13. DOOGAN – Arizona Diamondbacks - OVER 65 wins:
Not gonna lie, it took me a while to find a next pick.  In the end, I’m going with one of the lower numbers out there.  I don’t think this will be a good team.  They don’t really have any stars that can carry them, but I do think they have enough to get into the 70′s in wins.  Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders, and Armando Galarraga are guys that have gotten it done in the bigs for various lengths of time.  The “future stars” on offense that look like they’ll never quite make it (Chris Young, Stephen Drew, maybe even Justin Upton) are at least solidly productive.  The weak bullpen could be what really derails them, but 70 wins isn’t too much to ask for.

FINAL: 94-68
DOOGAN takes the lead 7-6
The second-best pick of the whole thing comes at #13, as Doogan wins this one by almost 30 wins – wow!

14. BRY – Minnesota Twins – UNDER 94 wins:
Ya, it’s getting real tough already.  Not sure how the rest of these picks are gonna go.  And, as evidence for the difficulty, I have to go against a team that always seems to overachieve.  But, 94 wins is a lot of wins.  I know that they played most of the second half without their second-best player in Justin Morneau.  I know that they played the whole season without their star closer, Joe Nathan.  And, I know that they won 94 games last year, despite all of that.  But, I just think that they may have overachieved a little too much last year.  I could easily see them at 90-92 this year and winning the division again, but I just think 94 is a big number.

FINAL: 63-99
BRY ties it up 7-7
The second-best pick is followed up by the best pick in this middle section of the draw, as the Twins were an ungodly 31 games worse than they were in 2010.

15. DOOGAN – Los Angeles Angels – OVER 80 wins:
The Angels have taken a bunch of steps back over the last couple years, but they still have two really important things going for them:  starting pitching and money.  Jered Weaver and Dan Haren are a great 1-2 combo at the front of the rotation, and Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro are solid veterans.  The underwhelming offense is relying on three over-the-hill outfielders (Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Vernon Wells) and the once-great bullpen has been largely gutted, but the starting pitching should help make them decent, and they have the money to add payroll mid-season and make a push in a winnable AL West.

FINAL: 86-76
DOOGAN takes the lead 8-7
These guys are good, as halfway through, there have only been 2 incorrect picks out of 15.  Doogan hits this one with 6 games to spare.

16. BRY – Kansas City Royals – OVER 67 wins:
I think I end up taking the Royals and the OVER every year, so why not get it over with now?  By almost all accounts, this team has the best farm system in all of baseball and it seems like many of these guys are just about ready to contribute on the ML level – at least by July or so.  I don’t think this team will compete this year – or even next – and they did lose their only real star in Zack Greinke in the offseason, but I can see this team getting real feisty in the second half and winning 35-40 games in the second half.  So, if they can just be not awful in the first half (which is no lock, by any means), then I think they’ll be hitting the almighty 70-win mark.  Then again, this may be really stupid, considering their rotation consists of Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies, the immortal Bruce Chen, and a 5th starter-to-be-named-later.  Ugh…what did I just do?

FINAL: 71-91
BRY ties it up 8-8
The youthful Royals are going to be the trendy pick to win the Central for the next decade, but we’ll see if it ever happens.  Hey, they improved by FOUR whole games in 2011…Yankees watch out.

17. DOOGAN – Texas Rangers – UNDER 90 wins:
It’s hard not to like the direction this franchise is heading in, but I’ve already gone OVER on the A’s and Angels, so that would put the Rangers in a tough spot.  They also won’t get two months from a certain guy named Cliff Lee.  I feel like they’ll find a way to have a decent rotation, but C.J. Wilson as your Opening Day starter isn’t a great sign.  Adrian Beltre is a nice replacement for Vlad Guerrero in the line-up, but with him joining Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, the team’s three best hitters are all injury-prone, which could certainly come back to haunt them. 

FINAL: 96-66 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 9-8
The streak of 8 straight correct picks is finished, as Doogan gets burned by another great year in Arlington.

18. BRY – Colorado Rockies – OVER 83 wins:
I have been resoundingly critical of this Colorado team for a couple years now.  I could never really understand how they were any good at all with an aging Todd Helton and heavily struggling guys like Garret Atkins and Brad Hawpe in the lineup every day.  Plus, their leadoff hitter was Dexter Fowler, who almost never got on base.  But, I have come around on this team, particularly because of three guys (who are pretty obvious these days) – Ubaldo Jimenez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez.  When you have a true #1 pitcher, an elite shortstop, and one of the best rising offensive stars in the game, you do not have all that much more building that needs to be done.  Plus, I like Jorge De La Rosa as a #2 and I think Huston Street is an underrated closer (when healthy).  I still don’t see this team as a pennant contender, but I can easily see them winning 85+ games in a mediocre division.

FINAL: 73-89 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 9-9
Bry’s lead doesn’t last long, as he missed badly on the Rox in 2011.

19. DOOGAN - Houston Astros – UNDER 76 wins:
A mediocre rotation, a bad bullpen, and a line-up that really struggles to score.  Ladies and gentlemen, Ed Wade in action!  This team was lucky to win 76 last year.  They’ll be lucky to win 70 without any help from Mr. Roy Oswalt. 

FINAL: 56-106
DOOGAN takes the lead 10-9
Did they really lose 106 games???  Ouch…

20. BRY – Los Angeles Dodgers – OVER 80 wins:
Clayton Kershaw may be on the verge of being an elite starting pitcher.  If Chad Billingsley ever finds it again, he could be a solid #2; Ted Lilly is already a solid #3; and, you can do a lot worse than Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Garland as your #4-5.  Plus, the bullpen is still very good, anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.  All of those parts add up to a really solid all-around pitching staff and when your pitching staff is solid, you have a really good chance to win more games than you lose.  And, it’s not like this offense is terrible.  Andre Ethier is not nearly as good as many people may think, but he’s solid.  Matt Kemp is not even close to as good as he probably should be, but he is immensely talented.  Rafael Furcal and James Loney are solid pieces.  This team is probably no better than a third-place team right now, but they could add a piece or two if they figure out their finances.  I wouldn’t be surprised with pretty much any result between 75 and 90, but I think the chances are better they’re over 80 than under it.

FINAL: 82-79
BRY ties it up 10-10
By the skin of his teeth, Bry avoids back-to-back misses, as the Dodgers and Matt Kemp managed a 2-win improvement in 2011.

21. DOOGAN – St. Louis Cardinals – UNDER 86 wins:
Argh, you definitely stole my next one with the Dodgers.  I hate betting against this Cardinal team, but losing Adam Wainwright for the season is a massive blow.  And I’m usually not one to buy into “distractions” affecting a team that much, but this Pujols contract situation is such a dark cloud hanging over this Cardinal season that its hard for me to see it not having a negative impact on just about everyone in the organization.  Also, isn’t about time this “Ryan Franklin as competent closer” phenomenon came to an end?

FINAL: 90-72 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 11-10
This one burns…what I wouldn’t give for Doogan to have been right about this one.  Then again, at least he didn’t pick…

22 BRY – Philadelphia Phillies – UNDER 97 wins:
Okay, I’ve put this off long enough for six reasons:  (1) I have a hard time picking the Phillies and the Under, in general; (2) I’ve thought about picking them and the Under for the last couple years and I always talk myself into the Over and end up getting rewarded; (3) Roy Halladay; (4) Cliff Lee; (5) Cole Hamels; (6) Roy Oswalt.  It is hard to believe that the best pitching staff of all-time won’t win 97 games, but I’m a little worried.  Let’s do some math, by the dozen:  I think that even these 4 great pitchers will probably throw out 3-4 “off days” a year, so say that’s approximately a dozen losses from them.  Without Brad Lidge, I think that the bullpen could blow at least a dozen leads.  There will probably be 20-30 games with these starters lead tied.  If the Phils win about half of them, that’s another dozen losses.  A non-stud starter will get at least 30-40 starts, so say that’s another dozen losses, at least.  And, there will probably be another dozen losses when the offense just doesn’t do anything (especially without Utley) and Halladay loses 2-1 or 1-0.  So, that is, by my count, six dozen losses…or about 90 wins.  Honestly, I would definitely take the Over on 90, but I think I have go with the Under on 97.

FINAL: 102-60 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 11-11
The best team in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies, and Bry went with the Under – he was unavailable for comment on this one…

23. DOOGAN – Chicago Cubs – OVER 75 wins:
I was gonna go Over on the Phils at some point.  Boo to you, Bry.  As for the Cubbies, it must make their fans sick to see some of these contracts.  This year they’re paying $19 mil. each to Soriano and Zambrano, $17 mil. to Aramis Ramirez, and $14 mil. to Kosuke Fukudome.  Anyway, it looks like they have a .500 team.  Zambrano, Dempster, and Matt Garza is a serviceable trio of starters and Kerry Wood returns to join Carlos Marmol at the back of the pen.  The offense definitely doesn’t thrill you but, again, not terrible.  111 years and counting for the North Siders.

FINAL: 71-91 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 12-11
The Cubbies are in trouble, as a franchise.  A winnable division, a huge payroll, and 71 wins?  That’s, uh, not very good.  Bry takes the lead back, as the guys are starting to struggle here down the stretch.

24. BRY – Florida Marlins – OVER 80 wins:
Ya, I’m not a fan of my last pick, either, Doogan.  The good news is – if I had to pick one team that I think has the best chance to win the World Series, it would be the Phils because I think that 97 wins or not, they are going to the playoffs and once they get there, with that rotation – watch out.  Anyway, this paragraph isn’t supposed to be about the Phils.  It’s getting pretty tough here with these last couple, but I’ll go with the Fish and their youngsters to at least go .500.  When you have a top 5 starting pitcher and a top 5 shortstop, you should win a lot of games.  Plus, the rest of the rotation is decent and they always have good young talent on the way.

FINAL: 72-90 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 12-12
The 4th straight incorrect pick gives us another tie here after 24 picks.  It’s hard to imagine that this Marlins team was a last-place team in 2011, but it’s true.

25. DOOGAN – Cincinnati Reds – UNDER 91 wins:
Even though, in a lot of ways, this is an up-and-coming team, they look more likely to take a step back this year.  Is Joey Votto really going to repeat as MVP?  Also, even though they have a bunch of decent arms in the rotation, none of them can be considered a sure thing, especially with two of them (Cueto and Bailey) starting the year on the DL.  Aroldis Chapman might turn into a beast in the pen, but they have a bunch of relievers that had really good years last year who could easily be very average this year.  The good news for them is that 87 wins could definitely take the division title again.

FINAL: 79-83
DOOGAN takes the lead 13-12
To get an easy point at #25 is always a welcome relief, but after 4 straight incorrect picks, this one feels pretty important for Doogan’s chances at winning the MLB Preview for the first time.

26. BRY – Chicago White Sox – OVER 88 wins:
The remaining picks are really, really tough, but the Ozzie Guillen/Ken Williams Era has been very underrated on the South Side, so I’ll go with the ChiSox.  This team is always competitive and they always seem to make a big move if they need it.  And, I think that they are arguably the best team in this decent division, which usually leads to 90+ wins.  I really like the Adam Dunn signing and the Paul Konerko re-signing.  And, even though Jake Peavy will start the season on the DL, if they can get anything close to the Peavy of old, this staff could be excellent with Mark Buerhle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson.  We could even see breakout performances from guys like Gordan Beckham or Alexei Ramirez.

FINAL: 79-83 – WRONG
DOOGAN leads 14-12
Yet another bad pick by Bry, as he is fading quickly down the stretch here – Doogan’s magic number is 2.

27. DOOGAN – San Francisco Giants – UNDER 92 wins:
As good as their starting pitching is, it’s pretty hard to see it getting better.  On the other hand, they’ll continue to struggle to score runs, and it’s easy to see Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Andres Torres dropping their production level of last year.  They’re hoping rookie first baseman Brandon Belt will help with run production.  This also a brutal defensive team, with Burrell in left, 37-year-old Miguel Tejada at short, Pablo Sandoval at third, and Huff moving to right field to make room for Belt.  Throw in Brian Wilson starting the year on the DL, and I like the Under here.

FINAL: 86-76
DOOGAN leads 15-12 (clinches at least a tie)
A great call by Doogan here at #27 to pick against the defending champs has put him on the verge of the 2011 title.

28. BRY – Washington Nationals – OVER 69 wins:
I have put off this pick for a while now because, while I think they have to be getting better (right?), they really have no starting pitching.  And, we all know that Strasburg is out with an injury, and Jordan Zimmerman may not be ready for The Show quite yet.  But, they do have the most underrated player in the game (Ryan Zimmerman) and they added some guy named Jayson Werth.  I think they’re probably more likely to hit 65 than 75, but I still think that they’re probably around 72 or so, so I’ll take the Over – barely.

FINAL: 80-81
BRY trails 15-13
The champagne will have to stay “on ice,” as Bry cruises to an easy point here, with the Nats nearly playing .500 ball in 2011.

29. DOOGAN – Cleveland Indians – UNDER 69 wins:
I stayed away from this pick for so long because the Indians have a lot of guys that could either way: pretty good or really bad.  The offense has the potential to be average (that’s about it though), but the pitching has the potential to be epically bad (which they showed when the first two starters combined to give up 17 runs in the first two games of the year).  In a pretty tough division with three good teams to play 18 times each, it’s likely to be another long year in Cleveland.

FINAL: 80-82
BRY trails 15-14
Doogan misses another chance to clinch the title, as the Indians (despite playing about .300 baseball in the second half) had a good enough first half to nearly finish .500.

30. BRY – Atlanta Braves – UNDER 91 wins:
After taking the Phils and the Under, I had a feeling that Doogan would set me up here to be the ultimate “bad guy” with a Braves and Over pick.  But, in true stubborn fashion, I refuse.  Give me the Under.  I do like this Braves team, but I think that they are getting way too much love from the national pundits.  Their starting rotation is good, on paper, and very deep, but Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson are another year older.  Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlin have never proven they can stay healthy for a full year, and Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor still have a lot more to prove in the bigs.  And, on offense, everyone is talking about how great this offense is and I just don’t get it.  This is the first four in their order:  Martin Prado, Nate McClouth, a 39-year old Chipper Jones, and Dan Uggla.  Is that the first four of a title contender?  No way.  Jason Hayward is a stud, but does that mean that Freddie Freeman is too?  Plus, they lost Billy Wagner and are now counting on a couple of really young relievers in Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel at the back of the ‘pen.  But, despite all of what I just said, I would absolutely have picked this team for the Over and possibly thought they had a shot in the NL East, if not for one thing – the best manager of our generation is no longer calling the shots.  It’s hard to quantify what Bobby Cox did for that clubhouse, but I can say that, regardless of his replacement, they have downgraded.  Give me the Under in Atlanta and a fifth straight NL East title for the Phightin’ Phils!

FINAL: 89-73
BRY ties it up 15-15
Three straight wins for the Phils against the Braves to close out the season gives Bry three straight points to close out the Preview, and we’ve got ourselves a flat-footed tie, folks.  And, for the first time in our four-year history, we have to go to the tie-breaker (win differential).

TIEBREAKER:
DOOGAN – 96
BRY – 49

Doogan takes the 2011 MLB Preview Title in a Tiebreaker, 96-49.

The Committee did a pretty fantastic job all the way around, this year.  And, one of the most striking successes of this bracket is the balance that each region has.  The Midwest is no exception.  They have a UNC team that clearly has #1 talent, but hasn’t been quite as good as many thought.  Kansas is a strong #2, even though, on paper, they may not have seemed it early in the year.  Georgetown, while vulnerable, is a deserved #3.  And, Michigan/Temple at 4/5 is pretty tough.  And, yet, I still can’t say for sure that whether this region is stronger or weaker than any of the other three.  Well done, Committee, well done.

North Carolina’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Greensboro, NC

North Carolina should be one of the best college teams in a decade.  But, they aren’t; and there is nothing to say that they will become so in the next three weeks.  It was telling last week, when I had a lot riding on the Heels to beat Florida State in the ACC Championship.  You really learn about a team when you watch their game, really needing them to win.  I had no faith that they would make enough plays on either end of the floor.  They struggle to guard people, particularly on the perimeter, and have a gaping hole in the middle without Henson.  And, on the offensive end, when is Harrison Barnes going to show us why he was dubbed the “next Kobe?”  He’s just not that good.  I still might pick the Heels to win the whole thing, but that will only be because I’m neurotically stubborn.  How about this, though, I think they will definitely beat either Pat Knight’s Lamar team or Vermont on Friday.

All the talk about Doug McDermott and the Creighton Blue Jays may have hid the dirty little secret about Creighton – THEY DON’T PLAY ANY DEFENSE.  Don’t get me wrong, I love all things MVC, but this team really doesn’t guard anybody, and that almost completely precludes them from real success in this tournament, no matter how good McDermott is.  I actually really like Anthony Grant’s Alabama team.  They have top-level talent in guys like Jamychal Green and Tony Mitchell.  They also have some really solid secondary players like Trevor Relaford (or is it Travis – one of them is on Kansas and one on ‘Bama) and Andrew Steele.  And, the best part about them is that they buy into what Grant is selling – defense, defense, defense.  I think that this team could give the college hoops world a shock this weekend.

And, I’m not talking about shocking the world by beating Creighton.  I really think that Tar Heel fans should be Doug McDermott fans on Friday because this ‘Bama team can beat them.  Creighton cannot – they just don’t play enough (any) defense.

1. North Carolina – 63.7%
2. Alabama – 27%
3. Creighton – 9%
4. Vermont – 0.2%
5. Lamar – 0.1%

Michigan’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Nashville, TN

Jon Bielein is a phenomenal coach, and he has rejuvenated this Michigan basketball program.  They tied with Michigan St. and Ohio St. for the Big Ten title, which is nothing to sneeze at.  But, are we convinced that this team really has what it takes to make a run here?  I’m not.  In fact, I think that Ohio, led by the great D.J. Cooper, has a real shot at an upset here.  Either way, I’m not sure that Michigan is quite there…yet.

The team that is there – or better be after so many near-misses – is the Temple Owls.  There is no secret as to what team I root for, but I have proven time and again that I am pretty objective when it comes to the Owls.  I was terrified of Cornell; I didn’t think they had a shot against San Diego St. last year; and, I acknowledged that Michigan St. was probably too much to ask for, as far as an upset pick three years ago.  But, this year is different.  This year, the team seems more complete and more consistent.  They don’t rely on one player, and they can both score and defend inside and outside.  Oh, and it is definitely strange to not know their opponent yet.  I think Cal is the better team and should take care of South Florida tonight, I am actually hoping that they do because I think the slowdown, physical style of USF is a nightmare for anyone in a one-game setting.  Then again, if this Temple team is as good as we think it is, they should be able to win a game at either speed.

And, if there is any leftover resentment from the since-vacated Michigan Final Four run in 1993 that happened to go through the Temple Owls in the Elite Eight, maybe this year will be the chance to bury those demons…ya know, if Michigan gets there.  Then again, I do think the Wolverines actually do matchup well with the Owls, so we Owls fans will be rooting for the Bobcats hard on Friday night.

1. Temple – 34%
2. Michigan – 31%
3. California – 13%
4. Ohio – 12%
5. South Florida – 10%

Georgetown’s Pod – Fri/Sat in Columbus, OH

Georgetown has been really good this year – at least one year ahead of schedule.  Belmont has been really good this year – again – right on schedule.  This Belmont team is, dare I say, great.  They have been playing together for four years.  They are unselfish and balanced.  They are experienced, confident, and talented.  They can shoot the lights out, but don’t mind mixing it up or driving to the rack.  I am not going to say that they the favorites here against a really solid G’town team, but this is not IN ANY WAY your typical 3/14 matchup.  The Hoyas got a bit of a raw deal here, if you believe they were 3-seed worthy (which I do, actually).  This is a very live upset pick here – more than any 3/14 I can remember.

And, just to blow this pod up completely, I actually do think that N.C. State, the 11-seed, should be favored to beat #6 San Diego St. on Friday.  Not only have the Aztecs been struggling, but they rely on Jamaal Franklin a little too much, and N.C. State has a slew of athletes to throw at him.  C.J. Leslie is one of those guys that you don’t want to count on in ho-hum games on the road on a Wednesday night in January, but when the lights are on, I’ll take him.  Oh, and by the way, this game is scheduled for 9:40 am, San Diego time.

So, with both games in the first round in total flux, who can possibly tell what we have in store for us on Sunday.  Either way, it should be awfully interesting, and I think I’m going with an 11-seed to be favored to win this pod because I think they should get by SD State and certainly can beat G’town (or Belmont).

1. N.C. State – 32%
2. Georgetown – 29%
3. Belmont – 22%
4. San Diego St. - 17%

Kansas’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Omaha, NE

How good is Bill Self?  Very good.  This Kansas team was not supposed to win their 8th consecutive Big XII title (an incredible streak in any conference, let alone one of the best in the country), and yet they did.  I know that Thomas Robinson went from “good” to “best in the country” and Jeff Withey went from “stiff” to “very good,” but still, to think that this team, this year, would be a #2-seed is remarkable.  Even Ty Taylor seems to have bought in, which could seal Self’s COY honors in and of itself.  But, even with a 2-seed, they were not done any favors in the first round.  While Robinson might be the best player in the country, Detroit‘s Ray McCallum Jr. might be the second-best player in this game.  And, the Titans are rolling.  Despite a slow start, they won the Horizon tournament, despite the big disadvantage of the 3-seed, and they are playing with a ton of confidence – even talking some trash.  While they are probably deserving of their 15-seed (and, therefore, not warranted to talk any trash to Kansas), they are dangerous.  I would not have liked my draw, if I were a Kansas fan.

St. Mary’s has officially become their own program now that they beat Gonzaga for the regular season outright title and then took them down in the WCC championship game.  (Ignore the fact that they both got 7-seeds…)  Now, they get a shot to grab another tournament victory for a program that has arrived.  But, they have a really tough first test in Purdue.  The Boilermakers are battle-tested through a brutal Big Ten and, even though they lost a pair of NBA draft picks, they did add a star in Robbie Hummel back to the mix.  This game is one of the better first round matchups, and it seems like a total toss up to me.

While Kansas got, easily, the toughest 15-seed, they probably got aligned with the 7/10 duo that presents the least danger in the second round.  I love Matthew Dellavadova and the St. Mary’s Gaels, but they don’t have anyone who can possibly matchup with Robinson or Withey inside.  And, while you’d be a heartless bastard not to root for Hummel to have some sort of success, this Purdue team is just not good enough to be considered a real threat to the Jayhawks.  I would say that Purdue presents a slightly tougher matchup than St. Mary’s, but not appreciably, and the Jayhawks should still be playing next week…then again, we’ve heard that before.

1. Kansas – 61%
2. Purdue – 17%
3. St. Mary’s - 15%
4. Detroit – 7%

Well, talk about throwing a wrench in the works.  The #1-seed in the East just lost their most important player for the tournament.  This region is, all of a sudden, the definition of “wide open.”

Syracuses’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Pittsburgh, PA

Fab Melo isn’t the best player on Syracuse, but he is, without question, the most important.  What is the biggest weakness for the ‘Cuse?  Rebounding and interior defense.  Who is, by far the best rebounder on the team?  Melo.  And, who was the Big East’s Defensive Player of the Year?  Melo.  That could spell trouble.  Fortunately, for them, Melo was declared ineligible after the seedings were announced (not that it definitely would have dropped them, but we’ve seen stranger things happen), so they are still a #1-seed and they still get UNC-Asheville tomorrow, whom they should be okay against even without Melo because Asheville isn’t all that deep.  They shouldn’t get too complacent, though, because we all know the best way to beat a zone is to get real hot from outside, and Asheville has a pair of phenomenally talented and experience guards in J.P. Primm and Matt Dickey, who comprise as good of a low-major backcourt as you’ll find anywhere.

Kansas St. is battle-tested and tough and should be pretty happy with their matchup with Southern Miss.  Larry Eustachy’s Golden Eagles have had a great season – and Eustachy is a great coach, but they seem to be taking on water recently, and I really don’t see this as your typical 8/9 game.  So, that means it will probably be the best game of the round…

Fans of the Orange are probably very much in support of Eustachy and his Southern Miss squad now, because without Melo, they do not matchup very well with the tough and rugged Wildcats.  With Melo, they probably would cruise through Pittsburgh; without him, it’s much less rosy upstate, so a Southern Miss win could go a long way.

1. Syracuse – 52%
2. Kansas St. - 36.5%
3. Southern Miss- 11%
4. UNC-Asheville – 0.5%

Wisconsin’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Albuquerque, NM

I talk a lot about underrated and underappreciated coaches on this blog, but there is no one in the country more underrated than Bo Ryan.  Name me the NBA players that Bo Ryan has been able to lure to Wisconsin.  Jon Leuer…?  Anyone else?  No, and yet the guy just keeps winning.  And, he has done it again this year, with a new set of smoke and mirrors.  But, there is one thing that has alluded him all these years – a Final Four.  I’m not too sure that this team is the one that will get that done for him, but with Bo, you never know.  Their trek starts today against a dangerous 13-seed from the Big Sky in Montana.  The Grizzlies boast a pair of dynamic guards in Will Cherry and Karim Jabbar, who really get out and guard people.  But, this isn’t a great matchup for the Grizz because Wisconsin doesn’t need to score much to win, so Montana’s defensive acumen isn’t as big of an advantage against the Badgers as it would against many other teams that rely on perimeter scoring to beat you.  That being said, if they can get by Wisconsin somehow, a second round showdown with Vanderbilt might be just the matchup that they would like.

Speaking of Vanderbilt, the Commodores come into the Tournament the way the came into the season – a chic Final Four pick.  The problem is that their work in the middle, they didn’t really do much to impress.  That being said, they have an immense amount of talent and experience, with Jenkins, Taylor, Ezeli, and Tinsley, and certainly have what it takes to make a serious run in this tournament.  The Fab Melo suspension may have helped them as much as anyone.  But, you know what’s funny?  The Vandy love is so palpable right now that it is completely overshadowing the team that I really thought would be getting that love – Harvard.  This team is really good, and were they matched up against anyone else, we might be hearing all this talk about the Crimson making the Sweet 16 and so on.  But, we haven’t…which means, they can actually be a savvy sleeper pick.

The second round in this pod is going to be so matchup-dependent (like anything else) that it is so hard to even think about right now.  Either way, this is a fascinating section of the draw that isn’t getting much talk because most people think Vandy is going to roll through (not that I disagree with them being the favorite here, I just think it’s a lot more wide open than one might be led to believe).

1. Vanderbilt – 41%
2. Wisconsin – 34%
3. Harvard – 14%
4. Montana – 11%

Florida St.’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Nashville, TN

Florida St. had a weekend for the ages, knocking off Duke on Satuday and UNC on Sunday – wow!  And, this team might just be that good.  They are experienced, mature, and talented.  Plus, with Bunny Colvin…I mean Leonard Hamilton…on the sidelines, they are well-coached.  That being said, let’s not go too crazy about a team that might not have a single pro on the roster.  They open with a team that is pretty underseeded, in St. Bonaventure, who did finish 4th in a good, deep A-10 and then won the tournament.  And, they absolutely have a pro on the roster, as Andrew Nicholson will, most definitely, be the best player on the floor on Friday.  The senior center from Canada is a man-child.  I don’t think it’ll be easy for the Seminoles, but they should survive.

Cincinnati went to the Big East championship game for the first time in their history – an impressive feat for a team that lost at home to Presbyterian earlier this year.  Say what you will about Yancy Gates – and I have – the guy can play.  They draw a Texas team that makes another tournament for the underappreciated Rick Barnes (I feel like I defend him every year around this time…and then he proves me to be an idiot when they underachieve).  The ‘Horns didn’t expect for their freshman center and freshman point guard to bolt for the NBA last year after good, but not great, seasons.  So, they were kind of left reeling at the start of the year, but found some semblance of consistency late, including a nice win over Iowa St. in the Big XII tournament.  J’Covan Brown is probably the best player on either roster, but I think this is a really bad matchup for Texas here – as they have a tendency to be “out-toughed” (another consistent trait of a Rick Barnes team that makes it harder to defend him).

I think the Seminoles got a pretty decent draw here, all things considered, as they get a 14-seed (albeit an underseeded one) to open and then either a “tough” team that isn’t as tough as them (Cincy) or a soft team that they will push around (Texas).  The ‘Noles should be heading to their second straight Sweet 16.

1. Florida St. – 52%
2. Cincinnati – 29%
3. Texas – 13%
4. St. Bonaventure – 6%

Ohio St.’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Pittsburgh, PA

As I saw it in November, Ohio St. came into the season as one of definitely two and maybe three teams that seemed head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the country.  The one that was a maybe (Kentucky) dominated the season and is the overall #1-seed.  My clear-cut preseason favorite (UNC) struggled at times, but still ended up as a #1-seed.  The Buckeyes finished in third place (albeit tied for first) in the Big Ten and lost in the conference tournament title game, ending up with a #2-seed here.  That being said, they are still loaded and will be a really tough out.  Their first opponent – a feisty Loyola (Md) team – is probably just happy to be here.  They are a very good team that I have been touting all year, but they really don’t have the horses to match up with the Buckeyes in any way.

I really like this Gonzaga team – and you have to hand it to them for having another nationally relevant season in Spokane, and I love Kevin Jones (the rest of his West Virginia team is a bit frustrating), so this is one of the marquee first-round matchups.  In fact, there might not be a better first round game than this one.

However, as much as I like that 7/10 matchup, it seems to me as if it might be one of those incredibly physical, warlike first round battles that leaves the survivor too wounded to compete in the next round.  I don’t see Gonzaga giving OSU a fight on Saturday, and while I think Kevin Jones can do anything, I don’t think Truck Bryant or Denis Klicli make enough shots to take down the Buckeyes.

1. Ohio St. - 69.5%
2. West Virginia – 18%
3. Gonzaga – 12%
4. Loyola (Md) – 0.5%

The West Region is pretty stacked and, therefore, pretty wide open.  While they had a terrific season (and have the best tournament coach ever that isn’t named Wooden), it’s hard not to have some doubt in this region’s top seed, Michigan St.  Throw in the fact that they could have brutally tough matchups at every turn, and you’ve got yourself a potential sleeper Final Four pick here.

Michigan St.’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Columbus, OH

Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t say that I was doubting Michigan St., necessarily.  This team did win the regular season and conference tournament of the best conference in America.  There is something to be said for that, at least.  They did draw – by far – the toughest 16-seed, in Long Island, but it’s still a 16-seed.  Just don’t immediately count out the Blackbirds, who have been here before, and played UNC really tough last year, before bowing out in the final minutes (the Blackbirds scored 87 against the Heels as a 16-seed last year).

The 8/9 game in this region might actually be more important for Spartan fans to pay attention to than MSU’s own game.  Memphis might be the most underseeded team in the entire field at #8 and is a team that can absolutely go toe-to-toe with MSU in the second round.  But, they could just as easily get swept up by a Rick Majerus-coached St. Louis team in this first round.  The Bilikens are very deep, very talented, and, obviously, very prepared.

For a #1-seed, this is not even close to a lock.  They are lined up with a very underseeded 16-seed and an unbelievably underseeded 8-seed.  Not saying that they will lose both, but this isn’t your typical cruise control pod for a #1-seed.  The best scenario for them is a St. Louis win over Memphis (certainly possible) because they match up very well against the Bilikens.

1. Michigan St. – 56%
2. Memphis – 31%
3. St. Louis – 12%
4. Long Island – 1%

 Louisville’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Portland, OR

I am going to have trouble being objective about this one because of my love for this Long Beach St. team and, to a lesser degree, this Davidson team.  I also think that Louisville, despite their top-5 ranking in December and Big East tournament championship last week, are not as good as their seed (which is warranted) may indicate.  I do really like this New Mexico team, though.  This is, BY FAR, the most interesting pod in the entire field.  If I could go to one site this weekend, it would absolutely be Portland (they also have Indiana-NM State and Wichita-VCU).

Louisville takes on a very, very good Davidson team that beat Kansas in Kansas City this year.  Jake Cohen – a forward from Philly – leads a terrific junior class that came in in the wake of the Steph Curry tournament run.  I think that there is a really good shot at an upset here.

And, the other game has another good shot at an upset, as Long Beach St., one of the best low-majors in recent memory, takes on a New Mexico team that would compete in any conference in America.  This game is incredibly good, and I think the winner might be the favorite to win this pod.

I have no idea what is going to happen here.  I want to give everyone 25%, but that sounds cop-outish.  So, I’ll go with this year’s strange basketball obsession, Casper Ware and the 49ers.

1. Long Beach St. – 30%
2. New Mexico – 29%
3. Louisville – 22%
4. Davidson - 19%

Marquette’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Louisville, KY

If you want a sleeper title contender, look no further than Marquette.  The Golden Eagles are experienced, talented, and motivated.  While I think this whole “they play really hard” thing is totally overblown (what does Buzz Williams inspire that 50-60 other coaches don’t – I actually think he is a pretty poor game-day coach) they are just very talented.  Jae Crowder, while not at all deserving of Big East POY, is a terrific player.  Darius Johnson-Odom might even be better.  Vander Blue is a super-talented point guard, and this team flat-out guards you.  It should be really interesting to see how they do depending on who they get from the play-in game, BYU or Iona, as the teams have vastly different styles.  But, either way, I think Marquette should survive…should survive.

The Committee did a nice job with Murray St.‘s seeding.  The polls have them as a top-10 team, but their conference and schedule and such have them more like a 10-seed.  So, they split the difference and gave them a solid #6.  And, even more beneficial, they gave them a couple matchups that don’t completely overmatch them in the post.  They open with a very good, very underappreciated Colorado St. team that does stuggle away from home.  But, anywhere you play UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego St., you’ve gotta be pretty good to pull out W’s – and they’ve got all three of them on their resume.

This pod is pretty wide-open…if Marquette doesn’t win it.

1. Marquette – 54%
2. Murray St. – 18%
3. Colorado St. – 15%
4. BYU – 8%
5. Iona - 5%

Missouri’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Omaha, NE

Missouri could have easily been a #1-seed (over UNC).  But, at least they were put in the region with the weakest #1, on paper.  They weren’t done any favors with the #3 Marquette on their side, but I still don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t, at least, get to the Elite Eight.  Also, it looks like the Committee decided to give them a 16-seed disguised as a 15-seed, in Norfolk St.  It was a great season for Norfolk, but, short of some crazy foul trouble or an injury, they really have no shot here, as they didn’t even win the regular season title in the lowly MEAC.

Missouri won’t be given a break in the second round at all, though, as Florida, a top-15 team all year, is the 7-seed, and Virginia, a top-4 ACC team, is the 10-seed.  This UF-UVa game is one of the best of the entire first round.  It should be fascinating to see just how many terrible shots that Boynton and Walker chuck up because of the frustration caused by the slow, slower, sloooooooooower pace of UVa.

And, then the winner of that game, will present Missouri with much different challenges, depending on who it is.  Florida can run and gun with anyone, and UVa can frustrate the hell out of anyone.  Mizzou is not going to have an easy time in Round 2.

1. Missouri – 51%
2. Florida – 30%
3. Virginia – 18.9%
4. Norfolk St. – 0.1%

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament constitute the greatest 4 days on the sporting calendar every year.  It never disappoints and always lives up to its ridiculous hype.  It’s simply the best.  Forget “filling out our brackets” to the end, let’s just focus on this weekend’s Madness and then when the smoke clears and we know who’s left standing, we can figure out where to go from there.  It’s all the first two rounds right for me right now – and I like to think of it as a series of 4-team tournaments (or “pods”) around the country.

Let’s start in the South.  Overall, I don’t think Kentucky has all that tough a road (which is fine, considering they are the #1 overall seed).  Duke is clearly the weakest #2, though Baylor could beat anyone on any given day, but they would have to avoid implosion for three rounds before even getting a shot at UK.  Indiana is flawed at #4, and Wichita St. is good, but not real threat to the ‘Cats.  The one intriguing spot is UConn at #9, particularly with the two coaches hating each other, but that game will be played with the Commonwealth of Kentucky (Louisville), and there is certainly no guarantee that the Huskies will even arrive to play that game.

Kentucky’s Pod - Thu/Sat in Louisville, KY

The #1 overall seed, Kentucky, gets to open with the play-in winner, who will probably be in-state “rival,” Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers have a losing record on the year and won’t give much of a problem (nor will the winner of the dreadful SWAC, Mississippi Valley St., if they win tonight).

The 8/9 matchup is very intriguing if, for nothing else, it dictates whether or not the top overall seed has to play the defending national champs in the second round.  Iowa St.’s Royce White is a total stud and “The Mayor” Freddy Hoiberg has done great work with the Cyclones, but they get a rough first-round matchup with UConn, who may have righted the ship.

Obviously, as the #1 overall seed, playing in their home state, the ‘Cats should get out of their pod unscathed, but a second-round matchup with UConn could be a really tough proposition if this is the UConn team that was #4 in the preseason polls.  Drummond and Oreaki inside are massive, and Jeromy Lamb and Shabazz Napier have shown what they can do.  If the Huskies get anything out of highly-touted Roscoe James or the German Neils Giffey, then they can be really tough.  So, here are my very unscientific odds to win this pod:

1. Kentucky – 85%
2. UConn – 10.9%
3. Iowa St. – 4%
4. W.Kentucky – 0.09%
5. Mississippi Valley St. – 0.01%

Indiana’s Pod - Thu/Sat in Portland, OR

The loss of Vernell Jones is absolutely heartbreaking, when you think about it.  Here is a guy who is now in his fourth year as an basketball player at Indiana University and has never played in a postseason game.  And, now, in his senior season, after three years of building to this point, when his team is finally relevant again – in the top 15 in the country – he tears his ACL in the Big Ten tournament, ending his season, his career, and his only chance at playing the Big Dance.  Just brutal.  The lone bright spot from it is that he won’t have to be in uniform when the Hoosiers get upset in the First Round.  That’s right, I really like this New Mexico St. team, and I think they will beat Indiana on Thursday.  Wendel McKines is one of the best players in the country that no one has ever heard of…until now.

The other game in this pod was the third matchup announced by CBS on Sunday, and I almost threw something at my TV because I saw where it was going – where it always goes.  The Committee always seems to have a habit of matching up really good mid-majors against one another, assuring that one of them will go out, so that they don’t continue on in the process, killing the TV ratings of later rounds.  And, I thought that this Committe was doing it again.  As it turned out, this Committee did a pretty fantastic job and was very fair to the mid-majors, this matchup just happened to come through.  Would I have rather seen Cincinnati-VCU and Wichita-Texas?  Yes, but that’s splitting hairs, and I probably would have complained about Wichita being underseeded.  Anyway, this game is going to be really good.  VCU‘s chaos pressure is actually a pretty bad matchup for Wichita St.  Joe Ragland is a great scoring guard, but isn’t incredibly efficient with the ball.  The Rams might force 20+ turnovers on Thursday.  But, they also aren’t the same VCU team that shot lights-out in last year’s tournament.  Brandon Burgess is very good player, but he’s not an NBA draft pick, like they have had in the past.  And, Wichita is very good and very deep.  Garrett Stutz might be the most improved player in the country, and all the talk about Ragland has people forget that Ben Smith and, especially, Toure Murry are really outstanding players.  I like the Shockers to survive here…barely.

And, either way, I like the winner of that 5-12 game to get through this pod en route to a showdown with Kentucky next week.  So, give me Wichita St. to win this pod, but it’s really way up in the air.  While I like New Mexico St. to beat Indiana, I actually think Indiana has a better chance to win the pod because I don’t see the Aggies winning back-to-back games.

1. Wichita St. – 36%
2. VCU – 29%
3. Indiana – 21%
4. New Mexico St. – 14%

Baylor’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Albuquerque, NM

Baylor might be the most physically talented team in the country.  They have unbelievable athletes on this team and can be scary good.  But, they play with immaturity and even apathy at times.  But, when they’re good, they can beat anyone – and are pretty scary.  They open on Thursday with a South Dakota St. team that has a guy named Nate Wolters, who you will hear a whole lot about in the next couple of days.  He’s really, really good, and puts up ridiculous numbers.  And, this team has become the poster-child for national college hoops writers that want to show everyone that they know about more than just the major conferences (my guess is because they’re enamored by the nickname, Jackrabbits).  It’s kind of annoying, but doesn’t take away what they’ve done this year.  They finished second to a good Oral Roberts team in the Summit and have a 20-point win at Washington on their resume.  But, they will be overmatched on Thursday, so don’t let anyone talk you into this upset pick.

The 6/11 game is fascinating, actually.  The Pac-12 tournament champs, Colorado, aren’t that far from home in Albuquerque, and they are very good at home.  They have a double-double machine in Anthony Roberson, but he won’t be the best big on the floor on Thursday.  Mike Moser – a UCLA transfer – is an absolute stud for UNLV, and should at least cancel out whatever Roberson gives Colorado.  And, the Rebels have better guards in Oscar Bellfield and Anthony Marshall.  I like UNLV here easily to set up a really nice second-round matchup with Baylor.  That is one I cannot wait for.

Can Baylor put together two great games in three days?  If not, UNLV will beat them.  If this game happens, it might be the highlight of a great Saturday.  Wolters is good enough to win a couple games, so, while I think the Jackrabbits are overmatched, I don’t think it’s totally out of the question that they get through here.  I actually give them a slightly better chance than Colorado.

1. Baylor – 43%
2. UNLV – 36%
3. South Dakota St. – 11%
4. Colorado – 10%

Duke’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Greensboro, NC

I do like rewarding the higher seeds with an easier path and maybe a slightly shorter trip, but I do think that UNC or Duke playing in Greensboro, NC, is a little too unfair.  But, I guess the almighty dollar always trumps everything.  This is not your typical season for a Duke team, but it is your prototypical Coach K season, as he has completely maximized the talent on his roster this year.  He is so good, it’s really getting to be unfair.  And, they drew a team that probably can’t pull off this upset – especially in Greensboro – but they will hang with them.  While everyone has been loving Nate Wolters all year, I have been singing the praises of C.J. McCollum, Lehigh‘s point gu…scratch that…do-everything-guard.  He has scored 2,030 points, dished out 262 assists, grabbed 622 rebounds, and has more steals (207) than fouls (168) and nearly as many steals as turnovers (227).  In fact, this year, he did have more steals than turnovers.  Those are unbelievable career numbers…and the dude is ONLY A JUNIOR!  That’s right, the all-time leading scorer in Patriot League history (who happens to average 3+ assists, 3+ steals, and 6+ rebounds a game) still has another year of eligibility.  Ya, he’s that good.  But, Coach K will figure out a way to slow him down – he always does.

The 7/10 game is a fascinating game between the nation’s most overachieving team (Notre Dame), and one of its most underachieving teams (Xavier).  If you said at the beginning of the season that these two teams would meet in the tournament, you might think that XU was the higher seed in a 5/12 game or 4/13 game (after getting over the shock of ND actually making the tournament).  But, no, Mike Brey has done a terrific coaching job in South Bend, and quite honestly, Chris Mack has done a pretty terrible job with the Musketeers.  That being said, XU is cleary the more talented of the two, and probably the only one of the two that really could win this pod.

Either way, Duke has a really nice draw here, both with location and opponents.  Even though it was nice of the NCAA to allow Luke Harangody to return to ND after they lost Abromaitis, it won’t be enough.  Duke should cruise through this pod.

1. Duke – 76%
2. Xavier – 19%
3. Notre Dame – 4%
4. Lehigh – 1%

For the second year in a row, Bry enters the final day with the lead and doesn’t come through with the victory.  After Rikey stole the overall title by a single point last year, Primm takes the championship this year.  Though this year, it was by the decent margin of 57.5.  Thus ends a great CTC all around.

There were four games on Day Fourteen.  Two separate games were won by 3-seeds in the finals (worth 100 points), another was a 1-seed (worth 60 points), and the fourth was by a 4-seed that no one got right.  Interestingly, no one in the field got more than one of them right.  KA, Mac, Primm, and RDoc each got a 100-point game right to win the day with 100 points.  Gersh, Scoot, Stri, and Waters all got the 60-point game right.  The other 12 people all took a fat goose egg on the final day of the competition.

Primm, who made the ultimate jump to #1 right at the finish line, was the only person to gain more than 1 spot on the final day, as he came from 4th place to win it.  Lohse, who fell from 3rd to 5th, was the only one to drop more than one spot on the final day.  Mac, RDoc, Stri, and Waters all moved up a spot at the final buzzer.  Rikey, RSmith, Gross, Doogan, and Bry dropped a spot on the final day.

FINAL STANDINGS (days won/conferences won):

1. Primm – 2887.5 (2 days/3 confs – NEC*, BigEast, ACC)
2. Bry – 2830 (0 days/2 confs – BigSky*, BigWest*)
3. Doogan – 2816 (0 days/1 conf – SWAC*)
4. Mac – 2811 (1 day/6 confs – ASun, Patriot*, NEC*, MAC, BigWest*, SEC)
5. Lohse – 2799 (3 days/7 confs- BigSouth, Horizon, OVC, ASun, C-USA, Southland, WAC)
6. RDoc – 2771 (2 days/2 confs – BigSky*, MWC*)
7. Gross – 2668.5 (0 days/4 confs – ASun, CAA, Summit, Pac-12)
8. Alexi – 2611 (1 day/2 confs – OVC, WCC)
9. Teddy – 2572 (1 day/4 confs – ASun, MAAC, SunBelt, A-10)
10. Dave – 2513 (1 day/3 confs – OVC, MEAC, SWAC*)
11. Stri – 2510.5 (1 day/3 confs – OVC, ASun, SWAC*)
12. RSmith – 2471.5 (0 days/1 conf – MVC*)
13. J – 2422.5 (1  day/1 conf – BigSouth)
14. Scoot – 2388.5 (1 day/4 confs – ASun, AmEast, Southland, Big10)
15. Lynch – 2331.5 (0 days/2 confs – BigSky*, BigWest*)
16. Waters – 2288.5 (0 days/3 confs – AmEast, WAC, BigWest*)
17. Rikey – 2223.5 (1 day/4 confs – OVC, ASun, NEC*, BigSky*)
18. Gersh – 2205.5 (0 days/2 confs – ASun, Big10)
19. Lil Lohse – 2120 (0 days/2 confs – NEC*, SoCon)
20. KA – 1888 (1 day/1 conf – BigXII)

As seems to happen every year, the CTC ends right when the Selection Show begins, so I obviously get carried away thinking ahead to the greatest sports event of the year, without looking back on the CTC, as a good commish should…well, I am not a good commish.  But, considering the countless posts that I write during the two weeks, I might as well write one last one with all the tournaments that ended on the final weekend.  So, I decided to just give quick recaps on all 31 tournaments (with the money division updated).

Big South Conference

The VMI Run to the Finals Wins the Conference for J and Lohse

The unlikely run by the Keydets was enough for J and Lohse to easily win the 2012 Big South title, scoring 104 points – 41 more than anyone else.  This is the first Big South title for either of these guys, as 7 people have now won a share of the Big South over the 5 years of recordkeeping.  Defending champion, Doogan, finished a distant second place.

J takes the $9 prize from the Big South.

Horizon League

Lohse Rides Detroit to Another Conference Crown

The Lohse Train was rolling, as he wins a share of the first conference and the second one outright.  Only getting one first round game wrong, Lohse finished with 165 points in the Horizon.  This was Lohse’s first Horizon crown.  Defending champ, Bry, had won two of the last three, did finish in the top 5, but way off the pace.

Gross – who also hit Detroit – finished second place (123 points) to take the $18 bounty here.

Ohio Valley Conference

A Nearly All-Chalk OVC Tournament Gives Us a Five-Way Tie at the Top

There was only one upset (7 over 6 in the first round), so it’s no surprise that 5 people tied for this crown.  The real surprise is that no one actually hit  this perfectly, as Alexi, Dave, Lohse, Rikey, and Stri all missed one game, pocketing 70 points from this conference.  J was not a part of the five-way tie, which is a bit surprising, considering he had won this conference two years in a row.

Dave and Rikey split this pot for $4.50 apiece.

Atlantic Sun Conference

We’ll Take Your Five-Way Tie and Raise You Three More

The A-Sun wasn’t all that chalky, but it did give us our most divided conference championship of the 2012 CTC (tied for the most in history with the 2011 Summit League crown).  Gersh, Gross, Lohse, Mac, Rikey, Stri, Scoot, and Teddy all scored 48 points in the A-Sun, which was tops in the conference.  Neither Dave (co-2011 champ) nor Bry (2010 champ) were a part of this 8-way tie, but even more surprising was that the tie didn’t include J, who has a share of the 2011 A-Sun crown and sole possession of the 2008 and 2009 A-Sun titles.

Gersh, Gross, and Rikey each pocket $3 from their A-Sun excellence.

West Coast Conference

Alexi Hits Near Perfection to Take Home 130 Points and a WCC Title

The WCC was almost entirely chalk.  Alexi thought it would actually be all chalk, so he missed perfection by a single game (USF upsetting LMU).  He took 130 points here and the title, edging defending WCC champ, Bry, by 4 points.

Bry does take the $18 pot here in the money division.

Patriot League

Mac Hits Perfection in the Patriot League

A really good PL tournament was perfectly predicted by Mac, good for 72 points.  Lohse finished in second with 66, and then there was an eight-way tie for third with 54, including the defending champion, Gross.

Gross, Bry, J, and Dave were all a part of that tie, which happened to win the money division, earning them each a cool $2.25.

Missouri Valley Conference

RSmith Completes The Most Impressive Bracket of the 2012 CTC, Hitting a Tough MVC Perfectly

Perfect brackets usually come along when conference tournaments give us very few surprises.  Well, that is not the case here, as RSmith hits the MVC perfectly, which included a surprising Evansville win over Missouri St. and a shocking Illinois St. win over Wichita St.  RSmith’s impressive stuff netted him 244 points here.  Defending champion, Alexi, finished in a respectable fifth place, but was more than 100 points off the pace.

Dave, the only other one to pick Illinois St. to reach the finals, picked up the $18 pot in the process.

Northeast Conference

Four different entries hit the NEC Perfectly

Only two minor upsets through the NEC tournament led to a four-way tie at the top, all going 7-for-7 in the NEC.  Lil Lohse, Mac, Primm, and Rikey all took home 73.5 points for the perfect NEC brackets they submitted.  Scoot and Stri were perfect last year, but both finished way off the pace this year.  Stri had actually won 3 of the last 4 NEC titles (two perfectly).

The perfect brackets from Rikey and Primm net them each $4.50.

Colonial Athletic Conference

Gross Narrowly Edged Doogan for the CAA Title

Gross only misses two games in the CAA, to earn 175 points and the 2012 title.  Doogan was right behind with 168, and the two-time defending champ, Bry, was third with 161.

Gross wins the CAA kitty of $18.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Teddy Dominates a Tough MAAC Tournament This Year

With Iona and Manhattan losing early, this MAAC tournament was tough to call, but Teddy was pretty good – only missing two games and scoring 106 points.  Scoot was a distant 2nd with 88.  Defending MAAC champ Primm was way off the pace with 64.  Two-time champ Bry (’09 and ’10) finished in 19th place with only 20 points.

Dave, the only one in the money division to hit the Fairfield upset of Iona, takes the MAAC bounty of $9.

Southern Conference

Lil Lohse Navigates the Murky Waters of the 2012 SoCon Tournament

The very strange conference didn’t cause Lil Lohse any problems, as he took 96 points away from this tournament.  Dave and RSmith finished second, while defending champ, Gross, was in the middle of the pack.

Dave takes the $9 SoCon pot.

Summit League

Gross Utterly Dominates a Tough Summit Bracket

When Oral Roberts loses in the semis, and Oakland loses in the quarters, you know that this was tough to call.  Well, Gross hit both of those upsets and wins the Summit with an impressive 118 points.  This is our first repeat champion of the 2012 CTC, as Gross was part of an 8-way tie for the 2011 title.

Gross also earns $9 for his efforts.

Sun Belt Conference

The Craziest Bracket of Them All Goes to Lohse, Who Was One of Only Two to Even Get One of the Finalists

Lohse and RSmith (who finished second) were the only two people to even get a single finalist right.  Neither of them got the champion, and Lohse wins the tournament with 104 points.  Defending champion, J, had just 28 points, but that was 28 points more than Dave, who finished with zero Sun Belt points.

Gross wins another money division title for another $9.

Big Sky Conference

Perfection for Four People in the Big Sky’s All-Chalk Finish

Bry, Lynch, Rikey, and RDoc all went 5-for-5 in the Big Sky, as they went all chalk for 72 points.  This is the second straight title for Bry – and second straight perfect bracket.

Bry, Rikey, and RDoc will all take home $3 for their perfection.

Mid-American Conference

Mac Edges RDoc by Just 3 Points for the 2012 MAC Crown

The crazy new MAC format was good for Mac, who scored 195 in this conference, just 3 more than RDoc, who finished second.  Doogan, the defending champ and winner of 3 of the last 4 MACs, finished in third place.

Ohio’s 1-point win over Akron in the title game gave RDoc the $18 MAC title over Bry.

Big East Conference

Louisville Wins Primm the Big East and, Essentially, the Overall Title

Primm took the Louisville Cardinals all the way to the Big East finals, giving him 295 points (135 more than anyone else in the Big East) and was crucial to his come-from-behind overall championship.  Defending champion, Scoot, had just 100.

Primm won the $27 at stake here in the Big East.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Dave Cruises to a Very Impressive MEAC Title

Dave hit Hampton over #1 Savannah St. and Bethune-Cookman into the finals, giving him 81 points and a 31-point win over everyone else in the MEAC.  Doogan, who finished all alone in second place, gives up his MEAC crown to Dave here.

Dave takes the $9 on the line for the MEAC.

Atlantic Ten Conference

Teddy’s UMass Upset Pick is Enough to Win a Conference Without Picking Either Finalist

Teddy hit the huge UMass upset of #1 Temple, leading him to 153 points and an A-10 title, despite getting both finalists wrong.  Defending champion Waters, who has won 2 of the last 4 A-10s, finished in last place here with just 36 points.

Primm continues to clean up in the money division, taking another $18 here.

Big XII Conference

KA Dominates the Big XII, Scoring 325 Points in the Process

KA got the first Big XII game wrong (Texas A&M over Oklahoma), and then went on a 10-game Big XII winning streak, including the Baylor upset of Kansas and the Missouri championship.  Defending champion, Bry, finished in second with 265 points.

Bry did earn himself $27 for his runner-up finish, though.

Pacific 12 Conference

Gross Rides Arizona and Colorado to a Pac-12 Championship

Gross had Arizona going to the finals and Colorado to the semis.  That was enough to get him 225 points and the Pac-12 championship – barely edging Doogan.  Lynch, who won the 2011 Pac-10 title, must have been thrown by the two extra teams, as he finished tied for last with 30 points.

Gross pockets another $27 here.

Conference USA

Lohse, Who Dominated Week One, Reminds People That He’s Still Around With an Impressive C-USA Title

If Houston had held on against UTEP in the very first C-USA tournament game (they blew a big second half lead and lost in OT), then Lohse would have put together one of the more impressive perfect brackets we have seen in a while.  Either way, taking 296 points was the best performance in any tournament the whole CTC (if you discount the multipliers), including riding 6th-seeded Marshall to the title game.  Defending champion, Lynch, was in the middle of the pack this year.

Gross, who was runner-up to Lohse, takes the money division for another $18.

Southland Conference

Lohse Wins Another Conference Title – Sharing This One With Scoot

Lohse is rolling again, as he wins yet another conference championship, but has to split this one with Scoot.  Both guys took home 64.5 points here, barely edging KA and Doogan for this title.  Defending champion, Dave, was in the middle of the pack here.

Doogan’s second-place was good enough for the $9 pot here.

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Dave, Doogan, and Stri are All Perfect in the SWAC

A couple of quarterfinal upsets didn’t bother these three, as they cruised to a perfect SWAC bracket and the 52 points to went with it.  Lynch was in a group that finished just off the pace, but wasn’t enough to defend his 2011 title.

Dave and Doogan split the $9 pot, taking $4.50 each.

Mountain West Conference

RDoc Goes Perfect for a Nice Mountain West Title

216 points goes to RDoc for his impressive run to perfection in the MWest.  Bry and J were both perfect last year – J had a decent 160 points this year, but Bry struggled with only 108.

RDoc’s efforts give him a quick $18 here.

Western Athletic Conference

Tied With Waters, Lohse Wins His Seventh Conference Title – Most of 2012

Lohse and Waters were the only two to hit the Hawaii upset of Idaho and pick the right champion, earning themselves 126 points and a WAC title in the process.  This is the second straight WAC title for Waters.

Gross, Gersh, and RDoc all had 96 points in the WAC, adding $6 to each of their bankrolls.

Big West Conference

Bry and Mac Hit a Nice Perfect Bracket Here

There was a 7 over 2 upset in this bracket, so going perfect was no easy task, but Bry and Mac were both able to do it for 64.5 points.  This is the second time Bry has hit this conference perfectly (2009).  Defending champion, J, was just 6 points off the leaders, in third place.

Bry wins $9 for his efforts.

Great West

Lynch and Waters Are Impressively Perfect

This conference was not easy to predict, but Lynch and Waters both did so, which included a big NJIT upset of the top-seed, Utah Valley.  Perfection got them both 22.5 points.  Defending champ, J, had a mere 2 points here, finishing in last place.

Gersh’s 14 points were enough to get him a quick $8 from the Great West.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida St. Gives Primm the ACC and the Overall Title at the Eleventh Hour

Primm rode Bunny Colvin’s Florida State Seminoles to 275 points, an ACC Championship and a 2012 CTC Championship.  Defending champ, Alexi, finished in 19th place with 110 points.

Primm takes the $27 pot here, and clinches an additional $72 for the overall title.

Big Ten Conference

Gersh and Scoot are Nearly Perfect in the Big Ten

If Indiana had beaten Wisconsin in the quarters, Gersh and Scoot would have been perfect in Indianapolis.  Even so, they took home 285 points from this conference.  Defending champion, Primm, had just 125.

Gersh earned himself $27 for the excellent Big Ten picks.

Southeastern Conference

Mac Sets Single-Conference Record with 405 SEC Points

The only game Mac missed was the very first one, when LSU beat Arkansas.  Other than that, he was perfect, netting him 405 – a CTC record for a single conference.  Rikey, who completed a perfect SEC bracket last year en route to a dramatic overall win, had just 100 points this year, good for 19th place.

Doogan and Primm had 315, which was just enough to hold off RDoc and split the pot – $13.50 each.

Money Division Recap

Primm’s Overall Title Leads the Way, While Gross and Dave Also Finish in the Black

1. Primm – $102
2. Gross – $32.35
3. Dave – $9.75
4. Bry – ($0.75)
5. Gersh – ($10.50)
6. RDoc – ($15.00)
7. Doogan – ($24.00)
8. Rikey – ($45.00)
9. J – ($48.75)

Selection Sunday.  My favorite day of the year.  Not only because it reveals the menu for our Madness, but because it comes with the crowning of another CTC champion.  There are four major conference championships today (each worth at least 60 points, and there are 3 people within 60 of the current leader, and three more within 180.  But, in actuality, there is only one person who can catch Bry for the 2012 overall title – and it all comes down to a single game for all the marbles.  If Florida State beats UNC today, Primm will come from behind and win, which would be the second year in a row that Bry blew a lead on the final day of the competition.

Championships
Atlantic 10
ACC
Big Ten
SEC

If you bought a ticket to Saturday’s ACC semifinal doubleheader in Atlanta, then you’re probably pretty glad you did.  Both games yesterday were dramatic, well-played, down-to-the-wire contests that showed that the top of the ACC should not be judged at all by the rest of the league’s struggles.  Now, today, we’ve got another great game to top it off.

Gross has the ACC lead and UNC winning the title, so a Tar Heel title will give him the ACC championship, which is nice.  But, the one with the most at stake (e.g. everything) is Primm.  A FSU win today and Primm will steal not only the 2012 ACC title, but also the 2012 overall title as well.

#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Florida St.
The last time these two teams met, the result was so jarring (a 33-point FSU win) that all the national stories were revolving around why we should write off UNC as a title contender and about whether or not Roy Williams has any respect for walkons.  Today, the talk is about whether or not UNC can get to the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament if Kentucky falters today.  It looked like FSU had a shot at an unexpected ACC regular season title this year, but they fell short.  Now, they can at least pull off a nice tournament title if they can come through today.

Primm is the only one with FSU winning the title and will have earned both the conference and overall titles, if that prediction comes through.  Half the field (Alexi, Bry, Doogan, Gersh, Gross, Lohse, Rikey, RDoc, Scoot, Stri) has UNC winning this title, including Bry, who will clinch the overall title with a Tar Heels win today.