Today’s Top Twelve: Temple Possible First-Round Draws

With the Selection Show just hours away, I wanted to start thinking about the possible first-round matchups for the Owls.  In looking at Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology that was posted before today’s games, the Owls were pegged as a 7-seed, even after the loss yesterday.  And, since “Joey Brackets” is so good at what he does, we will assume that he is pretty close.  Honestly, though, I think it’s more likely that he has overvalued the seed than undervalued it.  I could see the Owls in the 8-9 game before I see them moving up to the 6-line.  So, to try and narrow down the potential opponents, I considered all of Lunardi’s 8-, 9-, and 10-seeds as potential first-round draws.  I quickly eliminated two of this group – Richmond and Villanova – because the Committee always tries to avoid regular-season rematches in the first two rounds.  To replace them, I decided to take what I felt to be the weakest #7 (Cincinnati) and the strongest #11 (Michigan) as logical draws.  Penn State, who is currently a 12-seed in Lunardi’s bracket, could easily climb into the range of possibility if they beat Ohio State today, but, for now, a rematch of the 2001 Sweet 16 is probably an unlikely first-round matchup.  Also, Georgetown, a #7 that might be weaker than Cincy, but that is not an option because the two teams played in the regular season.

With those 12 teams, I tried to think about the best (and worst) possible matchups for a Temple team that is without a key interior defender in Michael Eric and with a hobbled inside-outside scorer in Scootie Randall.

Top Twelve Toughest Possible Matchups for the Owls in the First Round

12). Florida State.  The one thing that would make me the most happy when tonight’s draw is unveiled is if the Owls were matched up with Florida State in the first round.  And, encouragingly, that is exactly who Lunardi has them playing as of his bracket this morning.  It may sound odd because the one thing I am most concerned about is interior defense, and FSU’s frontline is active and athletic, but it is not nearly as intimidating without, by far, their best player, Chris Singleton.  Yes, they have played pretty well since Singleton was injured on Feb 12, but I still would love to play a Leonard Hamilton-coached team without its best player in the tournament.

11). Michigan.  This will be more because of the “happy-to-be-there” mentality that I think the Wolverines may have coming into this tournament.  The Owls have painful memories of three straight first-round exits that they are dying to erase next week, while just hearing their names called tonight will be a success to this program that has been quickly rebuilt by John Beilein.  Beilein, himself, would be my biggest concern in facing this team, but as great as Beilein is, his teams usually operate best when they can take advantage of an opponent’s lack of discipline.  I trust Coach Dunphy develop a gameplan and hold the kids accountable that will be able to efficiently attack the Wolverines defense.

10). Cincinnati.  Maybe this is an anti-Big East bias here, but is anyone really impressed by this Cincinnati team?  Yes, I know that they finished 7th in a good Big East (ahead of Georgetown and UConn), but their in-conference schedule was disproportionally easy and their non-conference schedule was an utter joke.  Yancy Gates gives me a little bit of a pause, and I could see their hard-nosed, bruising defense really rattling guys like Fernandez and Allen, but bruising Big East teams tend to get in a lot of foul trouble in the NCAA tournament because they are used to the invisible Big East refs that believe in “let them play” as much as they believe in “God bless, America.”

9). Missouri.  I know it is interesting for me to have Missouri this low on a list of teams I want to avoid because I LOVE this team and, as long as they are playing someone other than the Owls, I will be rooting for them next week.  But, from a matchup standpoint, I don’t think Dunphy and company would be that upset to see the Tigers opposite them.  First of all, Mizzou was nearly unbeatable at home this year, but barely ordinary on the road, and neutral court games – especially in the tournament – are much more akin to road games than home games.  Secondly, they feed off of defensive pressure – 40 minutes of hell – and scoring off of turnovers.  The Owls, with the strong handle and poise of Fernandez and the ballhandling abilities of guys like Moore, Wyatt, and even DiLeo, are very, very good at holding on to the ball.  Furthermore, the Tigers have a lot of trouble scoring in the halfcourt, especially down low, where even bruiser Ricardo Ratliffe isn’t a very good back-to-the-basket scorer, so the loss of Eric will not present a major problem against a team like Mizzou.  The only reason they are not lower on this list is because they are very, very talented and I’d be scared of that talent flat-out winning a game.

8). Utah State.  This team just flat out wins.  They are 30-3, with a close loss at BYU and an impressive dominating win at St. Mary’s.  Being a mid-major, they don’t have a ton of size, but their best player is the 6’7″ WAC POY, Tai Wesley, so they can score inside, but I think Lavoy Allen should be able to almost completely neutralize Wesley.  The issue that would present itself in this game is the incredible halfcourt defense that the Aggies play.  I think that, especially if Randall is out or not 100%, the Owls would have a lot of trouble scoring in the halfcourt against this defense.  It might rely on Fernandez (who has been rather inconsistent this year) having a big game shooting the ball.

7). Gonzaga.  Robert Sacre and Steven Gray scare me.  This team was supposed to be a top-15 or even a top-10 team this year, but they had some head-scratching losses early and now they have slipped to the 8/9 territory.  But, I think they are considerably better than that, and they have a boatload of big-time experience.  This is not a team that I want to have to play.

6). George Mason.  While they might not have the big-time size of one of the rich conference schools, this team can flat-out play.  They are reaping the benefits of the recruiting bump that came with the Final Four run and the brand-new building and have a stacked roster.  I love Fernandez, but Cam Long would probably be the best perimeter player on the floor if these two teams played.  Plus, the Patriots are white-hot, having won 16 in a row until losing their quarterfinal against VCU.

5). Butler.  They really only lost Gordon Hayward and Willie Veasley from last year’s team that were one turn-around jumper away from winning the national championship (everyone talks about the halfcourt shot, but they had a good look in the possession before that that would have given them the lead).  But, some interesting losses along the way this year have dropped them into this part of the draw.  But, they are so talented and skilled and still so experienced that there is no way I would want to have to beat them to advance.  If they do draw them, it will be important to get Allen involved early and often to try and get Matt Howard into foul trouble – which sometimes isn’t that hard to do.

4). Marquette.  If I didn’t think Buzz Williams was such a bad in-game coach, I might even have this team at the top of the list of teams to avoid for the Owls.  This roster terrifies me from a matchup perspective.  Without Eric, the Owls will have to use Rahlir Jefferson more on the inside to defend, leaving guys like Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom to be able to operate on Moore and Randall, who are not exactly stalwart perimeter defenders.  Plus, the bruising Big East style and the postseason experience on this team make them not exactly a great matchup for anyone, let alone a depleted Owls team.

3). UCLA.  Without Eric, this UCLA frontline of Nelson, Honeycutt, and Smith could have a field day against the Owls in a first-round matchup.  And, if Allen ends up in foul trouble, we could be looking at Aaron Brown having to guard one of these excellent big men.  Their guard play is suspect, which I think Dunphy could really expose, but this is also one of those games, where I think Dunphy might actually be the lesser head coach (there aren’t many), as Ben Howland is as good as it gets.  The only reason they are not higher is because I do think the Owls have a distinct advantage in the backcourt, and I am not nearly as impressed with a second-place Pac-10 season this year as I would be in normal years.

2). Old Dominion.  Not necessarily from a matchup perspective do I fear this matchup.  I just fear it because I feel strongly that this team will win its first-round game, regardless of competition.  They will be VERY underseeded (a la Cornell last year) and are better than any other team on this list (probably including the Owls).  I wouldn’t want to be any team that draws ODU in this year’s tournament.

1). Tennessee.  And, the one team I do NOT want to see (which, considering the Michigan State and Cornell draws in recent years, is now the most likely) is Tennessee.  Bruce Pearl simply wins tournament games, and this team is so incredibly talented, it took MASSIVE distractions this year just to keep them out of the top-15.  Scotty Hopson is the best single player on any team on this list, and Tobias Harris might be the second-best.  Plus, I cannot imagine this Temple frontline having to deal with Harris and Brian Williams, let alone Moore and Randall checking guys like Hopson and Cameron Tatum.  Please, Committee, to try and ammend the absurdness of the Cornell draw last year, please don’t give me Tennessee this year…