I Ain’t Worried About Either Side of Broad Street

This seems to be quite a bit of consternation along our favorite sports corridor these days, as both the Phils and Eagles have been, shall we say, less than confidence-inspiring as of late (though the recent impressive 3-game winning streak for our boys in red has tempered some of the worry on the North side.  But, as for Yours Truly, whose optimism in Philadelphia has frequently been unfairly characterized as an attempt at contrarianism, I am not worried about either of Philadelphia’s loaded rosters.

The Phils
Let’s start on the north side of Pattison Avenue, where the 5-time NL East champion Phils won their franchise record-tying 101st game last night, putting them four full games ahead of the next best team in all of baseball and six games better than their closest National League contender.

Their “Slump”
Yes, I know that they got their 98th win, clinching homefield advantage throughout and then promptly lost 8 straight, including 6 in a row to the NL’s juggernauts in Washington and New York.  But, let us be honest, anyone who has ever really competed in anything will tell you that professional athletes or not, elite competitors or not, these are human beings and are vulnerable to the same human foibles as anyone else. 

Think about this:  Let’s say that every day for the next 150 days, you and I are going to go a bar and shoot darts against each other for a relatively small, but not insignificant, amount of money.  Then, all of a sudden, on the 151st day, I say that the next 12 days are not going to be for money, BUT…13 days from now, we are going to restart the money games, only at 100 times the stakes.  How good do you think you’d be in the first 7 or 8 days of “exhibitions?”  I know I wouldn’t.  And, then with 3 or 4 days left before the BIG money, I’d probably start trying to zone in again.  And, to expect anything else from this team is nonsense.  For those that say, “they can’t just flip a switch and turn it back on,” there are countless examples – in all sports, including baseball – of teams that have gone in the tank before the playoffs and turned around and won it all.  Just in the last decade, there were a couple examples of teams not exactly playing their best ball “down the stretch.”  In 2006, the Cardinals went 9-16 in September and almost blew a 7-game lead to the Astros.  In 2000, the Yankees lost 15 of their last 18 games, barely holding off the Red Sox for the AL East title.  And, because both of these teams were in pennant races, they had absolutely no excuses for losing these games – they just weren’t playing well.  And yet, World Series banners fly in both St. Louis for the 2006 season and New York for the 2000 season.

The Lineup
There may even be something good that has come out of this (though, it’s unclear whether this was caused by the slump or would have happened anyway).  When Charlie wrote the “regulars” back into the lineup on Monday, there was an interesting twist to the batting order.  Chase Utley, who has been the team’s #3-hitter pretty much his whole career, was moved to the 2-hole with Hunter Pence sliding into #3, in between Utley and Ryan Howard.  Interesting, and…

He doesn't seem like the same Chase, but are you betting against him?

I love it!  I have been actually saying, for a while now, that come playoff time, the Phils need to split up the lefties any way they can.  I have been trying to find ways to do that for about four years now, even creating ways to do it (hit Werth #3, now Polanco #3, I even said in a blog at the beginning of this season that I wanted Jimmy Rollins to be the #3 hitter in October…hell, I’ve even suggested hitting Ryan Howard 5th!).  Now, with Pence’s emergence and Utley’s power decline, we don’t even need to invent creative ways to do this, it just makes perfect sense.  And, it’s even better than just having the lefties split up.  Utley is no longer a true power hitter.  His slugging percentage is his worst since becoming a regular (though, would anyone be shocked if he hit 7 home runs next month?), but he still gets on base, still runs the bases with intelligent abandon, and still needs to get a ton of at-bats for this team to win.  And, then there’s Pence.  A guy who brings energy and passion to the lineup.  A guy who, let’s be honest, is the best hitter on the team right now.  And, if there is one knock on Pence it’s that he doesn’t take enough pitches – that he is too free-swinging.  So, having him behind Howard, while nice because it did get the big guy more pitches to hit, kind of plays to Pence’s weakness because there was no one protecting him.  Now that he is protected by Howard, Pence is going to get strikes.  I love it.  And, Victorino has had a terrific year, and I have no worries about him in the 5-hole.  In fact, I think it actually plays more to his strengths too because if he gets on base there, he can run at will without the danger of running into outs in front of the big guys.  Plus, with Polanco #6 (a fantastic 2-hitter), it’s almost like the turn the lineup over again at #5.  I think this is the most balanced, all-around lineup that the Phils have brought to a postseason in this recent run.

My One Actual Concern
While the 8-game losing streak hasn’t phased me, there is one thing that has really troubled me in the second half of this month.  What in the world happened to Antonio Bastardo?  Granted, I never expected anything close to the Bastardo we enjoyed for the first 5 months, but I think every Phillies fan in the world would trade those 5 months for someone with any semblance of reliability right now.  After seeming to be on his way to obliterating the all-time record for BA against, he, all of a sudden, can’t get anyone out.  And, this problem is exacerbated even more by the fact that he’s our only lefty.  If he doesn’t straighten things out, the Phils will enter the playoffs without a single reliable left-hander in the bullpen.  And, I don’t have to remind Phillies fans of how essential guys like Javier Lopez and Damaso Marte have been in October over the past couple of years.

This is a Pretty Nice Spot to Be In
All in all, is there any roster in the majors who you would swap for the Phils’ heading into October?  And, if it took you more than 2 seconds to say “no,” then you’re either an ignorant Yankees fan who still thinks it’s 1999, die-hard (and delusional) Brewers fan, or a Red Sox fan who just woke up for a 4-week nap.  Because of the ridiculous unpredictability of the baseball playoffs, a Phils title is not even a probability, let alone a certainty, but there is no doubt in my mind that the Phils have by far the best chance at winning this year’s World Series – and, honestly, what else could we ask for?

No, I ain’t worried…

The Birds
Trust me, no one feels more pain after a loss to the New York Giants than this guy.  I hate the Giants more than any other sports team on the planet.  And, losing to them puts me in a bad mood for at least a month…sometimes longer.  And, I am also keenly aware of how health concerns (particularly at the quarterback position) can quickly derail the season of even the most talented NFL rosters.  But, this team is loaded, but still learning to play with one another.  Their schedule actually screamed 1-2 to me after 2 weeks (granted, I thought they’d be 1-0 in the division, but still), and there is a TON of season left.  The rest of the schedule actually plays out well for the Birds, and, probably most important of all, the NFC East isn’t exactly setting the league on fire right now.

Health
All the “not worried” comments do (and always will) come with a critical caveat – injuries are the almight equalizer.  And, if Vick continues to go down, the season looks a bit different.  If Vince Young stays banged-up, then the season looks a LOT different.  I like Mike Kafka, and he looked great against Atlanta, but he looked totally lost against the Giants.  Without stability at the most important position in sports, all bets are off.

Shady
I have been saying since the beginning of the year that LeSean McCoy has the potential to be a top 5 back in this league – right now.  And, it seems as if the world is starting to agree.  He’s a flat-out stud, my friends.  And, he is so dangerous in all phases of this offense.  When you talk about the Eagles offense, I think you are contracturally obligated to use the term “weapons.”  But, the real jewel of this offense is McCoy, and with a guy like that, this offense will always be good.

He may not be THE best back in the league, but he is putting himself in the discussion rather quickly

The O-Line is MUCH Better than You Might be Led to Believe
Jason Peters is an ELITE left tackle.  Todd Herremans was a fantastic left guard, whose natural position is right tackle, so he may also be elite.  Jason Kelce is a 6th-round draft pick at center who has been pretty solid, considering he’s three games into his NFL career.  And, the guards are still new.  O-lines take time to gel.  Give them some time under the best O-line coach on the planet, and this unit may actually, dare I say it, be one of the strengths of the team.

The Defense
Question marks abound.  Yes.  But, let us not judge this defense quite yet.  The Birds have played three games this year and faced maybe the three most committed, downhill running offenses in the entire league.  And, it doesn’t take a offensive coordinator to realize that downhill running games are bad matchups for a built around small, quick defensive ends and dynamic, playmaking cornerbacks.  When a defense’s weak spots are linebacker and safety, it’s no surprise that teams with Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs on their rosters could present problems.  But, most teams in this league are not of that ilk.  Which brings us to the next, and probably most important point…

Let’s Look at the Schedule
Like I said, I expected the Eagles to be sitting here at 1-2, with everyone singing that the sky is falling and making “Dream Team” jokes.  But, let us take a look at what is to come:

• Week 4 – San Francisco at home
  Is there any concern about a bad Niners team coming to Philly to play the 1:00 game, after staying in Pittsburgh all week?
• Week 5 – @ Buffalo
  All of a sudden, a bit of a tougher game than it may have appeared before the season started, but this is just the type of team that the Eagles are built to stop.  Fred Jackson is a speed-type back that runs on the edge, and Fitzpatrick is good, but can be mistake-prone.  I like the Birds D-line pressuring Fitzpatrick into throwing at our cavalcade of star d-backs.
• Week 6 – @ Washington
  A bit of a smoke and mirrors start to the season for the ‘Skins has covered what is a somewhat flawed team with clearly inferior talent.  Anything can happen on the road in the division, but this should be a W
• Week 7 – Bye
• Week 8 – Dallas at home
  Andy Reid teams never lose coming off the bye.
• Week 9 – Chicago at home
  Mike Martz’s system of 7-step drops and never running the ball inside the tackles might be the worst system, matchup-wise, against the Birds, who can get a ton of pressure with the front 4, and can cover all over the field.
• Week 10 – Arizona at home
  Another inferior West Coast team at 1:00.  Sorry, Kevin, probably not a stellar homecoming.
• Week 11 – @ N.Y. Giants
  This is the big one.  A Sunday night affair with the world watching.  I don’t think this Giants team is all that good, and I don’t see them completing a sweep against a team that might be running on all cylinders by that point.
• Week 12 – New England at home
  While this doesn’t look great, remember that the Pats defense is not very good, and their offense is predicated on open receivers.  Then again, Belichick is the master at creating mismatches, and there are a ton to be created against this Birds defense.  This is probably a loss, but not definitively, because the game is at home, and the Pats are on a short week, having played the Monday night before this.
• Week 13 – @ Seattle
  A Thursday night trip across the country just four days after the Pats game is not great, but the Seahawks are really bad.
• Week 14 – @ Miami
  A road game, yes.  But, against a bad team that will be out of it by then, and they have 10 days to prepare.
• Week 15 – N.Y. Jets at home
  Another tough game against a team that does enjoy the power running attack.  But, it is at home, and it is winnable.  Oh by the way, this is only 6 days before a Christmas Eve battle between the Jets and Giants.
• Week 16 – @ Dallas
  Obviously a tough game, but are we sure that the ‘Boys will still be in it?  Though, even if they aren’t, they will be tough to beat on the road.  Still not an impossible task at all.
• Week 17 – Washington at home
  I can’t imagine that they lose to the ‘Skins at home to end the season.  I just can’t.

So, if you look at the remaining 13 games, there isn’t one game that jumps out at you that would have the Eagles as a serious underdog.  They have their toughest games (NE, NYJ, Chi) all at home, plus they get Dallas off the bye, @Miami off a long week, and the Pats coming off a Monday night game.  They have two losses now, but how many more do we see on that schedule?  Three?  Maybe?  Four, at the most?  That’s 10-6 and should be a playoff berth, if not a division title. 

So, ya, I ain’t worried…