Conference Season Preview, Part Two: The Guys You Should Have Heard Of

Yesterday, we previewed the conference seasons for the “Big Six” conferences plus the A-10 and C-USA, who aren’t quite major, but not quite mid-major either.  Today, we are going to hit up the next 8 conferences, who are all admittedly “mid-major,” but play some of the best basketball in the country and, without a doubt, should not feel inferior to all but the best of the big conferences.  While these teams almost assuredly wouldn’t win the Big Ten or SEC, a lot of them could easily finish in the middle of the pack.  And, because early departures to the NBA are so abundant, I would argue that some of the most cohesive, “best” basketball is played in these conferences because they are really talented groups of kids that have stayed together for 2, 3, sometimes 4 years.

THE MOUNTAIN WEST

High-Major Basketball in Mid-Major Uniforms
Yes, I do LOVE Mountain West basketball, so I am often biased towards this conference, but here’s an objective statistic for you – the average RPI in the Mountain West is 88.  The average RPI in the ACC is 89; the SEC is 90; the Big East is 99; and, the Pac-12 is 133.  The average RPI in the Mountain West conference is the third lowest of any conference in America, behind only the Big Ten (64) and the Big XII (85).  Oh, and did I mention that this is the same conference that lost, arguably, its most accomplished program this offseason when BYU defected to the West Coast Conference?  Who needs them?

UNLV (13-2, 8 RPI) has proven itself to be one of the best teams in America, regardless of conference affiliation.  The Rebels 13 wins include an 11-point win over USC, a 10-point win over previously unbeaten North Carolina, a 16-point beatdown of previously unbeaten Illinois (in Champagne), and a 17-point drubbing of Pac-12 favorite, Cal.  The Rebels have established themselves as not only the best team in the Mountain West, but probably the best team in “The West.”

The one team that might be able to challenge the Rebels for the M-West title is San Diego State (11-2, 57).  The Aztecs lost a ton from last year’s Top Ten team, including NBA draft pick, Kawhi Leonard, but Steve Fisher has a couple holdovers (most notably, Chase Tapley) and has brought in a couple talented newcomers, and has the Aztecs playing really well.

New Mexico (10-2, 74) is another team that should be really good come conference play, and Colorado State (7-4, 46) is a really scary sleeper team out here, as they have played their way nicely through a brutal non-conference schedule that was set up because they expected the most talented roster in school history this year.

There have also been a couple teams that were not expected to do much this year that have had really promising non-conference seasons, particularly Wyoming (12-2, 99) and Boise State (9-4, 133).

OVERALL:  UNLV is not only the class of the conference, but almost certainly the best team west of the Rockies.  SDSU has reloaded and could present a bit of a challenge, and I wouldn’t rule out Colorado State (despite having the worst overall non-conference record), but it’s really the Rebels conference to lose this year.

THE MISSOURI VALLEY

Before There Can Be March Madness, There Has to be “Arch Madness”
It should be no secret to anyone that my favorite two weeks on the sporting calendar are actually the two weeks leading up to the NCAA tournament.  Don’t get me wrong – the four-day basketball nirvana that is the first two rounds is heavenly, but the conference tournament weeks that precede it provide nearly the same level of excitement on a game-to-game level with a LOT more games.  And, every year, one of the best of these conference tournaments takes place in St. Louis and is affectionately referred to as “Arch Madness.”  And, if you like hard-fought, intense basketball between some of the best teams in the country, you will love Arch Madness as much as you love March Madness.  And, this year might be the best version yet.  In fact, this year, if the top four teams somehow survive to play a semifinal double-header, that is appoinment viewing for any sports fan.

The top of this conference is proving that they can play with anyone.  Creighton (10-1, 14 RPI) handled the Cornhuskers, proving that they are clearly the best team in the state of Nebraska.  Northern Iowa (10-2, 5) beat Iowa by 20 and won on the road at Iowa State, proving that they are the best team in Iowa.  The Jayhawks and Wildcats are afraid to play Wichita State (9-2, 28), so we are left to simple conjecture as to the best team in the state of Kansas, but I might argue that it’s the Shockers.  And, yes, I know that Butler has been to back-to-back championship games, Purdue has Robbie Hummel and a great supporting cast, and the Hoosiers are undefeated, but would you believe that the best RPI in the state of Indiana belongs to…Indiana State (9-2, 47)?  It’s true.  These four teams are as good a top four as just about any conference in America, no matter what the national media wants you to believe.

And, there are even a couple sleepers, as Missouri State (7-5, 112) has rebuilt rather quickly, and Drake (7-4, 92) has some talent.  Even Illinois State (8-3, 213), who was picked to finish last in the conference in the preseason, made the finals of one of the better preseason tournaments.

OVERALL:  Whenever the top four in this conference meet, it will be phenomenal basketball.  While Indiana St. is outstanding, they are probably a clear 4th in the power rankings here, but as for the top three, this conference is anyone’s ballgame.  Creighton is still probably the odds-on favorites, but Wichita State has every bit the talent, and NIU has been as impressive as anyone in the non-conference.  Man, I can’t wait for this conference to get into full swing…

THE COLONIAL

A Rare Down Year Across the Board in One of the Nation’s Most Underrated Leagues
Typically right there with The Valley for the best mid-major basketball in the country every year, this year’s CAA seems to be suffering a bit of a hangover from another improbable Final Four run for one of its stalwarts. 

Shaka Smart’s team has lost multiple players to NBA rosters (more evidence of how good mid-major hoops has become) over the past couple of years, but he and the program are good enough to keep the train moving.  VCU (9-3, 75 RPI) has regrouped this year and may be poised for another fine season.

While the Rams might be the best team in the CAA, they won’t be without company at the top – by the typical cast of characters.  George Mason (8-4, 195) should be right there in the mix, as they might have the best team in the conference, on paper.  Old Dominion (6-6, 134) should be in full rebuilding mode after losing a ton to graduation, but they have looked pretty good in the non-conference and might be right there at the top, as usual.  James Madison (6-3, 140) has been right on the doorstep of the top of the conference for a while now, so maybe this is the year they break through.  And, there might be a major sleeper down south, as Georgia State (9-3, 270) has been really impressive, albeit against some poor competition, this year.

There have also been so real disappoinments in a very down CAA.  Drexel (6-4, 132) was pretty much the consensus pick everywhere you looked to win this league, and they have been incredibly disappointing so far, including an 11-point loss in their conference opener against a barely mediocre Delaware (5-5, 209) team.  Hofstra (5-7, 271) was supposed to be rebuilding, but they have looked really bad so far.  And, the bottom of this conference, particularly William & Mary (1-10, 325) and Towson (0-12, 332) is god awful.  Those two teams may be two of the 5-10 worst teams in all of D-I.  That shouldn’t happen in a conference this good.

OVERALL:  This is a really down year for the CAA.  There are no real at-large contenders, and the bottom of the conference is dreaful.  But, that doesn’t mean there won’t be excitement all year, as VCU and Mason should battle for top honors.  ODU looks ready to compete, as does the feisty Georgia St. squad.  And, we shouldn’t be too quick to write off everyone’s preseason favorite, Drexel, just because of their slow start.

THE HORIZON LEAGUE

Butler Who?
Brad Stevens and the Butler Bulldogs (6-7, 120 RPI) put this conference on the map with two amazing postseason runs, but this is not a one-team league…which is a good thing because Butler is in a bit of a rebuild.

While everyone can rattle off household names like Gordon Heyward, Matt Howard, and Shelvin Mack that all departed Butler in the past two years, but the biggest loss from the Horizon League in the past two years is without question Norris Cole from Cleveland State (11-2, 55).  And, yet, even without Cole, the Vikings look like the class of the Horizon this year.

They will be challenged on almost a nightly basis in this quickly improving league, so anything is in play here.  Other than Butler, obviously, Milwaukee (9-4, 82) looks like the most likely to challenge the Vikings this year, but no one would be surprised if they got challenges from several other teams.  Valparaiso (8-5, 119) is exceptionally talented and poised to make a run; Green Bay (6-6, 78) has survived a pretty difficult non-conference schedule right at .500; and, even Wright State (6-8, 173) and Youngstown State (6-6, 216), who were picked to finish at the bottom of the conference, have both shown signs of possibly competing with the big boys.

And, then there is Detroit (6-8, 258).  The Titans were picked by most to run away with this league and possibly find themselves in the Top 25 this year.  That’s how good their roster is.  Well, the results haven’t quite lived up to the hype, and the Titans are already 0-2 in the league.  But, if they can find it, who knows where they might end up.

OVERALL:  This is a very deep, interesting league this year.  Cleveland State is probably the best team, but Butler needs to never be overlooked.  Milwaukee is the regular season defending champ and returns a lot of talent, while Valpo is right there, talent-wise.  And, the most talented team on paper, is still lurking in Detroit.

THE WEST COAST CONFERENCE

The Good Just Got a Lot Better
The WCC would always be a solid league with their two big boys at the top, but this year they added a third big gun and now this league is all the more interesting.

BYU (10-3, 60 RPI) defected from the Mountain West and joined the WCC this year, creating a three-team war for West Coast supremacy.  Unless you were asleep for the past 12 months, you probably know that the Cougars no longer have The Jimmer, but they also lost his running mate, Jackson Emery.  And, while that is a lot to lose, everyone else is back, and this team is still pretty loaded, especially when you consider they have UCLA transfer, Matt Carlino to step right into the backcourt along with highly-recruited SO Kyle Collinsworth.  So, yes, this team is still a force to be reckoned with…and yet, they are still the third best team in this top-heavy league.

St. Mary’s (11-2, 42) was the most popular pick to win the WCC this year – and they have lived up to every bit of the hype so far – but that’s just because there is a general fatigue around Gonzaga (9-2, 13).  I guess it’s just not “cool” anymore to say just how good the Zags are – that’s when you know you’ve arrived, as a program.  Well, I don’t care about “cool,” Gonzaga is the best team in this conference.  BYU and St. Mary’s are NCAA tournament good, but Gonzaga is better.  Either way, games between the top teams are even more interesting now that there is a third player in the mix.

It’s highly unlikely that any of the other teams in this league can even come close to cracking the top three, but if it’s anyone, it will be either San Francisco (8-4, 166) or Santa Clara (6-4, 148) because the rest of the league is dreadful.

OVERALL:  As always, this is a very top-heavy league, but the top part just added another team, in BYU.  While I have strongly stated that I feel Gonzaga is the best of the three teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the three wins the league, and I definitely feel that all three are worthy of at least consideration for an at-large bid.  No one else in the league can really compete, so any conference loss outside of the top three against one another could be devastating, especially if it’s to one of the SoCal teams.

THE BIG WEST

Speaking of Top-Heavy…
This conference probably doesn’t even come close to belonging on this list with leagues like the WCC, the MVC, or even the CAA, but I wanted to include them for two reasons:  (1) my love for LBSU and (2) the drama created when there are TWO teams in a low-major league that could compete in any high-major conference in the country.

I’m not sure I’ve written a college hoops post in the last two years that didn’t include some sort of reference to my love for Long Beach State (7-6, 12 RPI).  Their win @Pitt was no fluke, nor was their beatdown of Xavier, nor their close losses @Kansas, @Louisville, and @UNC.  This team can flat-out play and this is the year…

This is the year because they only have one chance left with this group of stars (Casper Ware, Larry Anderson, and T.J. Robinson are all among the best players in Big West history and they are all seniors), after failing as juniors.  They “failed” as juniors because they got beat.  After finishing the regular season unbeaten in conference play, the 49ers ran into a talented, but underachieving team that finally hit their stride, UC-Santa Barbara (5-5, 116), who flat-out beat them in the championship game.  Well, the Gouchos have most of their team back, including Orlando Johnson, the nation’s leading scorer, who won the Big West POY as a sophomore before Casper Ware did last year.

While the rest of the league, to be kind, stinks, there are two teams that probably shouldn’t be automatically dismissed.  Most notably is Cal Poly (8-4, 128), who has the best team in program history (which isn’t saying much) and has had a pretty solid non-conference slate.  CS-Fullerton (8-3, 183) has looked decent against mostly inferior competition and might be able to surprise someone on a given night.  The rest of the conference is bad, particularly UC-Davis (1-11, 344), which is in the running for worst team in D-I (which might be a decent post, actually…).

OVERALL:  If Big West administrators scrapped the whole conference schedule and just had LBSU and UCSB play like a best of 21 or something, I don’t think anyone would complain.  But, instead, what we are probably relagated to is a whole lot of exhibition matches leading up to one, single, winner-take-all battle in the conference tournament.  Hey, at least it’ll be exciting…

THE MID-AMERICAN

A Tale of Two Divisions
The SEC made the obvious (and overdue) decision this year to scrap the division system and just go to a single, 12-team league.  They did this because the SEC East was, for several years now, so far superior to the SEC West, that teams like Tennessee were getting better seeds in the NCAA tournament than they were in the SEC tournament, while others that weren’t even at-large candidates (like Arkansas or Alabama) were getting byes.  Well, that is happening in the MAC as well, as the MAC East is head and shoulders about the MAC West.

But, even in the brutal East, two teams seem above the pack.  Kent State (8-3, 93 RPI), who was picked to win the league this year, was rolling along at 8-1, including a big win @West Virginia, before their trip to Logan, Utah, last week for the Athletes in Action Classic.  They struggled to a 9-point win over a bad St. Peter’s team in the opening round, before losing to UT-Arlington in the semis.  They then got hammered in the third-place game by the hosts, Utah State.  They will try and right the ship before their conference opener next Saturday.

While Kent State was picked to win the league, the most impressive team in the league thus far (and, to be honest, one of the most impressive in the country) has been Ohio U. (11-1, 16), whose lone loss on the year was a 5-point loss @Louisville in which the Bobcats led almost the whole way.  Their 11 wins include impressive wins @Marshall, @Oakland, and @N.Iowa.  This team is for real and should be in the AP Top 25.

Other teams in the East that have been solid include Buffalo (6-3, 126), Akron (135), and Bowling Green (6-5, 186).  Over in the West, there is one team that has regrouped from an abysmal start to win 5 straight, and that is Western Michigan (5-7, 145).  The Broncos do have a lot of talent and played a brutal schedule, so they should win the West and maybe challenge the Eastern teams for the MAC tournament bid.

One team that will not be a sleeper, unless you’re talking about the race for “the worst team in D-I” is Northern Illinois (0-11, 336).

OVERALL:  Ohio has looked as good as anyone this year, but Kent State is supremely talented.  Throw in the possible sleepers like W.Michigan, Buffalo, Akron, Bowling Green, and even Ball State, and you’ve got yourself an interesting league this year.

THE OHIO VALLEY

Chasing Perfection
This league is not a second-tier league this year or, pretty much any year, but I had to include in on this post because of one team – Murray State (13-0, 15 RPI), and its quest for perfection.  The Racers won the Great Alaska Shootout (including a win over RPI #3 Southern Miss in the finals) and also won @UAB, @W.Kentucky, and @Memphis.  They also beat Dayton at home en route to a perfect 13-0 non-conference record and the national spotlight.  Now, they enter conference play in a mediocre league having a subpar year.  It’s hard to find a loss on the schedule outside of their to-be-determined opponent on BracketBusters weekend.  Granted all conference games are dangerous, especially when wearing the burden of perfection, and the league isn’t all cupcakes, but the Racers might actually qualify for the NCAA tournament unbeaten.

The funny thing is that the Racers weren’t even picked to win the OVC in the preseason…they were picked FOURTH!  Tennessee Tech (8-5, 180) has their whole team returning and was supposed to win this league, but have had a spotty non-conference.  Austin Peay (3-10, 264) was supposed to challenge Tech, but have had a dreadful non-conference.  Tennessee State (7-6, 190) was picked 3rd, but haven’t shown much that would frighten Murray State.  There is always Morehead State (6-7, 211), but with Kenny Faried gone, the cupboard is pretty bare there.  Eastern Kentucky (7-6, 172) and Eastern Illinois (6-5, 187) have looked, at least, decent, but the rest of the league has been really bad in the non-conference.

OVERALL:  The only real question here is will Murray State finish the season unbeaten.  Tennessee Tech is probably their biggest threat, but even in that one, the Racers final conference game on February 25th, Murray State should be a pretty big favorite.

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