And, It Just Got Interesting

For the casual tennis fan, the appeal of the French Open took a serious hit, if not was eliminated altogether, on Sunday when 4-time defending champion, Rafael Nadal lost to big-hitting Swede, Robin Soderling.  To the serious tennis fan (all 7 of us), the tournament just got very, very interesting.  There is something to be said for a 127 of the most talented tennis players in the world all trying to do what has never been done, but, I think, there is even more to be said for a wide-open field that includes some title-hungry competitors, including one that could be chasing the G.O.A.T. title.

When we last left you, we had two rounds complete and the original field of 128 had shrunk to 32.  With two more rounds in the books, we have now reached the quarterfinals–eight dreamers remain for the 2009 French Open title.  And, honestly, any one of the eight could take this title.  To look at this, we’ll break it down to quadrants.

The Nadal (1) Quadrant:
QUARTERFINAL TUESDAY – #23 Soderling vs. #10 Davydenko

The third round in the top half of this quadrant was rather cruel to BSB.  Bry’s two favorite players in the world, Lleyton Hewitt and David Ferrer, both went down in the third round.  Hewitt got smoked by top-seeded Rafa, while Ferrer was beaten in 4 sets by the aforementioned 23rd-seed Robin Soderling.

Then, as everyone probably has heard, Soderling beat Nadal in 4 sets in the Round of 16 to reach the quarterfinals–a full two rounds better than his previous best Grand Slam performance.  Soderling has really seemed to come into his own in this tournament.  Always the big hitter, Soderling played the match of his life (obviously) on Sunday.  He flat-out beat Nadal.  Rafa did not beat himself, he got beat.  Soderling overpowered him.  But, most impressive of all was the fact that Soderling (a guy who had never reached the Round of 16 in a Grand Slam event) did not seem fazed at all, throughout the match, with the possible exception of a loose tiebreaker in the second set.  He was on the cusp of doing something that had never been done, yet he did not seem affected at all, in his play.  No tight points, no loose serves.  Soderling pulled off what John McEnroe has called “the biggest upset in French Open history,” and he did so without one nervous mistake?!?  Incredible!

In the third round in the other half of this quadrant, Nikolai Davydenko played a strong match against Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka, winning 6-2 in the fourth.  Below that, the red-hot Spaniard, Fernando Verdasco, continued to cruise through this tournament, by sweeping by countryman Nicolas Almagro.

But, something happened to Verdasco–who has been playing with the most confidence of his career–in the Round of 16 match with the savvy vet Davydenko.  It seemed like his serve (the former Achilles’ heel in his game) betrayed him again.  He only made 59% of his first serves, and they weren’t effective when they did go in–only winning 55% of points on his first serve.  Overall, Davydenko won 47% of receiving points and was 5-for-9 in break points, winning in straight sets in less than 2 hours.

Davydenko, having eliminated one Spaniard, may have caught a big break not having to face the other Spaniard–Nadal.  Davydenko versus Soderling?  Who would have predicted that quarterfinal matchup?!?  This was supposed to be when the best friend Spaniards do battle again on their preferred surface, but neither of them have made it here.  I really want to pick Soderling to continue this run, but it has to be so hard to come back from the biggest win of your career.

BSB’s PICK – Davydenko in 5.  I think Davydenko comes out and wins the first set quickly, then Soderling catches his breath, wins two of the next three, but runs out of gas against a much more experienced player.  Take Davydenko 6-3 in the fifth.

The Murray (3) Quadrant:
QUARTERFINAL TUESDAY – #3 Murray vs. #12 Gonzalez

The third round of the top half of this quadrant was rather devoid of drama.  Janko Tipsarevic, one of the more eccentric characters on tour, had many, many opportunities to take the first set from 3rd-seeded Andy Murray, but blew every one.  Then, after losing the second set, the relatively unstable Tipsarevic decided that he’d had enough and retired.  Radek Stepanek gave an effort, but just did not have the firepower to deal with up-and-coming star, Marin Cilic, the 13th seed.

Well, it is a good thing that we did not post our predictions for the Round of 16 because I am sure that I would have picked Cilic to upset Murray and move to the quarters.  I was dead wrong.  Murray handled Cilic with ease, winning in straight sets, continuing just an incredible turn in a career.  When Murray was bounced in the Third Round of last year’s French Open, it looked like his career would be take the same frustrating path of Tim Henman–a lot of promise, but just not quite enough talent to live up to the large British expectations.  But, since then, Murray has been absolutely incredible, including a quarterfinal finish at Wimbledon, a runner-up at the US Open, a Round of 16 in Australia, and now another quarterfinal (at least) here in Paris.  Murray is on his way to being one of the more dominant players of the era.

The bottom half of this quadrant has played out very well for one guy–Fernando Gonzalez.  Gonzalez, the 12-seed, swept through two qualifiers in the first two rounds.  Then, in the Third Round, not only did he get to face unseeded Josselin Ouanna instead of 20th seed Marat Safin, but he got Ouanna less than 48 hours after he had to win an 18-game 5th set against Safin.  So, he cruised through the exhausted, satisfied Frenchman into the Round of 16.  He then avoided the very talented Frenchman, Gilles Simon, because he somehow got smoked by 30th-seeded Victor Hanescu.  This is a very disappointing result for the highest-seeded Frenchman in the draw.  There is no reason for Simon to come out so flat in the Third Round of his home country’s tournament.  Very disappointing.

So, Gonzalez, instead of facing #7 Simon, a Frenchman in France, he got #30 Hanescu, a Romanian in France.  Gonzalez, a natural on this surface, cruised past Hanescu 6-2 6-4 6-2, to set up the quarterfinal date with Murray.

As the only two players left that have not lost a set, Gonzalez and Murray are both well-rested and highly confident.  Gonzalez is probably more comfortable on clay, but Murray is the better all-around player.  This might be the best match of the quarterfinals, and it really is the toughest for me to pick.

BSB’s PICK:  Murray in 4.  I think if it goes 5, Gonzalez will win.  But, I also think that Murray can take care of this match in 4.  Yes, I am the one that would have picked against Murray in the Cilic match had I had the dedication to make a post, but I kind of think that, in some strange way, the Nadal loss may have given Murray even more incentive.  As a guy who should win multiple Grand Slam events, this might be his best shot at a French Open title (hey, it’s EVERYONE’S best shot at a French Open title, so this is a highly-coveted trophy right now).  I think it will be a fantastic match, but one in which the young Scot will prevail.