Man, this is getting good–as always. Week Fourteen got us all ready for the stretch run and the playoffs, and now Week Fifteen should bring it to a fevered pitch.
Thursday, December 16:
8:20 – San Francisco (7-6) at SAN DIEGO (10-3)
The Chargers are just the better team and are at home. I was given real pause in this game because I usually really value coaching on short weeks, and I think that Mike Singletary is about 87 times the coach that Norv Turner is, but Norv just has better players, and I think the Bolts will win despite their head coach.
Sunday, December 19:
1:00 – Kansas City (5-8) at ST. LOUIS (1-12)
It’s just about time that Sam Bradford adjusts well to the speed of the game and whatnot. In this battle of a terrible football state right now, I actually like the Rams to come out on top.
1:00 – Buffalo (1-12) at MIAMI (7-6)
The Dolphins are coming off a really tough trip to the New Meadowlands to face the Jets, but the Bills are terrible. This is a nice respite in what has otherwise been a grueling schedule for the Fish.
1:00 – Cleveland (3-10) at CINCINNATI (8-5)
The Bengals, coming off a tough game at Pittsburgh last week and preparing to host the Chargers next week, got a bit of a break here because the Browns just aren’t very good. This game could be a bit of a trap, but I like the Bengals to get through it.
1:00 – Jacksonville (5-8) at INDIANAPOLIS (10-3)
The Colts, with a lot more to play for than Jax at this point in the season–most likely–and I can’t imagine the Colts throwing this one back.
1:00 – Houston (7-6) at TENNESSEE (8-5)
The Titans catch another scheduling break here, as the Texans are coming off a physical Monday night game against Baltimore, while Tennessee hasn’t played since Thursday night. Three more days than normal for the Titans; one fewer day than normal for the Texans; and, it’s in Tennessee? You gotta respect the schedule here and go with the Titans.
1:00 – Washington (3-10) at DALLAS (8-5)
Arch-rivals going in different directions. Yes, the Cowboys are coming off of a tough game against the Eagles and have to prepare for a Christmas Day game next Saturday, but I don’t see them dropping one here to a bad Redskins team. Yes, the ‘Skins are dangerous because they probably only care about being sleepers to their division rivals right now, but I don’t think they have the horses to get it done in Big D.
1:00 – Philadelphia (9-4) at N.Y. GIANTS (7-6)
I can’t really express to you all how painful it is to me to pick the Giants to beat the Eagles. It actually makes me want to throw up, but I have to do it here. While both teams really need this game, I think that the Giants–at home–might need it a little bit more. Throw in the fact that the Eagles are coming off of a Sunday night war in Dallas and now they have another road game against a division rival, and I just don’t see it. –cringe– Give me Big Blue here in a crucial game.
1:00 – Arizona (6-7) at CAROLINA (8-5)
If you asked me (before looking at the schedule) what I thought of Carolina, I probably would have said “7 or 8 wins–with more likely 6 than 9.” But, with this home win here, at 1:00 against Arizona, I’ve already got them at 9 with two more to play. But, hey, you can’t argue with the schedule, and there is no real reason why they wouldn’t win this one here.
1:00 – DETROIT (5-8) at Tampa Bay (2-11)
The schedule has really opened up for the Lions, so if they can survive a really tough go of it early and still play hard, they could be in line for a decent jump in wins. I think they are a better team than Tampa and have the ability to go in there and steal one.
1:00 – New Orleans (9-4) at BALTIMORE (8-5)
This was, BY FAR, the toughest game of the week to pick for me. I had no idea what to do here. The Ravens are working on a short week, after playing in Houston on Monday night. The Saints are coming off a pretty easy home game against St. Louis. The Ravens have a road trip to Cleveland next week, which is not easy, but nothing for them to look ahead to. The Saints, however, have a huge showdown next Monday night in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. Both teams really need this game, but I am going to go with the home team here because I think that a December afternoon in Baltimore hurts the Saints style of play a lot more than it hurts the Ravens. But, this is a real tough one.
4:05 – Atlanta (9-4) at SEATTLE (3-10)
Now, I’m not incredibly confident with this pick, but there are reasons for it. The Falcons are clearly the better team here, but they are coming off of a tough divisional game at Carolina and are playing in a place that’s historically tough on road teams. Plus, it’s probably incredibly difficult for the Falcons not to take this Seattle team lightly, particularly with a gigantic game with the Saints coming up next week. Throw in the distance that they have to travel (Atlanta to Seattle is no joke), and I think this is a really trap-type spot for the Dirty Birds. See, this is where an examination of all the schedule’s intangibles sometimes reveal things you otherwise wouldn’t see.
4:15 – N.Y. Jets (7-6) at PITTSBURGH (7-6)
This game may prove to be an elimination game for the AFC playoffs. Both teams are going to really need this game. I like the Steelers at home because I think that they actually are the one team in the league that can say they have a better defense than the Jets, and they actually have an offense to go with it.
4:15 – Denver (4-9) at OAKLAND (7-6)
The Raiders finally get through the brutal part of their schedule and get a very winnable game here at home. The Broncos are not good and should be out of it by this point in the season.
8:20 – Green Bay (10-3) at NEW ENGLAND (9-4)
A possible Super Bowl matchup in late December. I like the Pats here because the Packers have not proven, yet, to be a great road team. This should be a real shootout (if the weather holds up on a cold Boston night), but I like Brady to outgun Rodgers in a great Sunday night game.
Monday, December 17:
8:30 – Chicago (8-5) at MINNESOTA (7-6)
Assuming the old man is still upright, I like the Vikings to get right back into the discussion here with a big Monday night win over the Bears. The Vikes are a better team; they are at home; and, they should really need this game. Give me Minnesota on the grand stage.
STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 15
NFC EAST
9-5 Dallas
9-5 Philadelphia
8-6 N.Y. Giants
3-11 Washington
The Eagles lose to the Giants, while the Cowboys beat the Redskins. The Eagles have the tiebreaker here, but they still have to face Dallas in Week Seventeen. The Giants are very much alive with two to play.
NFC NORTH
10-4 Green Bay
8-6 Chicago
8-6 Minnesota
6-8 Detroit
The Vikings stay alive with a Monday night win over Chicago. That loss hurt the Bears. The Packers also lose and come back to the pack a little bit, but still are a win away from locking up the division. Another nice win for Detroit, and the Lions are two wins from a .500 season.
NFC SOUTH
9-5 Atlanta
9-5 Carolina
9-5 New Orleans
2-12 Tampa Bay
All of a sudden–to the surprise of many–this is a three-horse race. The Panthers win over Arizona coupled with losses for New Orleans and Atlanta give Carolina a piece of a three-way division lead with two to play.
NFC WEST
7-7 San Francisco
6-8 Arizona
4-10 Seattle
2-12 St. Louis
The war of attrition in the NFC West continues, as the Niners, at 7-7, hold a one-game lead over Arizona. The Rams and Seahawks both won this week–wouldn’t have bet on that one.
AFC EAST
10-4 New England
8-6 Miami
7-7 N.Y. Jets
1-13 Buffalo
Miami handles Buffalo to move into second-place by themselves. The Pats are a win away from yet another AFC East crown, as they took out Green Bay on Sunday night. The Jets took a huge loss at Pittsburgh and now are in a world of trouble.
AFC NORTH
9-5 Baltimore
9-5 Cincinnati
8-6 Pittsburgh
3-11 Cleveland
Three more huge wins for the big three in this division. The Ravens took out New Orleans; the Steelers beat the Jets; and, Cincy took care of division and in-state rival Cleveland. Brutal…
AFC SOUTH
11-3 Indianapolis
9-5 Tennessee
7-7 Houston
5-9 Jacksonville
The Colts are a win away from winning another division title. The Titans got a gigantic win over the Texans and are in pretty good playoff shape here. The Texans are on life support after their loss at Tennessee. Jacksonville is officially done.
AFC WEST
11-3 San Diego
8-6 Oakland
5-9 Kansas City
4-10 Denver
The Chargers are officially the first team to clinch their division, doing in on Thursday night with a win over San Fran. The Raiders kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over Denver.
PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 15
NFC
#6 New Orleans (9-5) at #3 Philadelphia (9-5)
#5 Dallas (9-5) at #4 San Francisco (7-7)
t.b.d. vs. #2 Carolina (9-5)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (10-4)
Still Alive: Atlanta (9-5), Chicago (8-6), Minnesota (8-6), N.Y. Giants (8-6), Arizona (6-8)
With the exception of Dallas, every single team that had an NFC playoff spot last week lost this week, and one team on the outside last week took full advantage. Carolina went from out of the playoffs to a bye position by taking the lead in the NFC South. The Packers are still #1, the Panthers are #2. The Eagles keep the NFC East lead thanks to their win over Dallas in Week Fourteen and are #3. The Niners are #4, as they have been every week we’ve done this. The Cowboys have actually unseated the NFC South stronghold on the top wild card and are the #5-seed, thanks to their Thanksgiving Day win over the Saints. New Orleans beat Atlanta in Week Three, which gives them the #6-seed. The Falcons are out, as of now. The Vikings, Giants, and Bears are still lurking for a wild card. The Cardinals are still only a game behind the 49ers, but have been eliminated for a wild card.
AFC
#6 Baltimore (9-5) at #3 New England (10-4)
#5 Tennessee (9-5) at #4 Cincinnati (9-5)
t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (11-3)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (11-3)
Still Alive: Miami (8-6), Oakland (8-6), Pittsburgh (8-6), Houston (7-7), N.Y. Jets (7-7)
It is almost the exact opposite here in the AFC, as every playoff positioned team won in Week Fifteen. The seedings don’t change from last week. The Colts have the tiebreaker over San Diego for homefield advantage. The Bengals have the tiebreaker over Baltimore for the AFC North, and the Titans have the tiebreaker over the Ravens for the #5-seed. The Dolphins, Steelers, and Raiders are very much in it. The Jets and Texans need a near-miracle.
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